Monday 30 March 2015

Latest Live Prediction - UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 by Electoral Calculus

Live Prediction: Labour short 39 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30733.1%274
LAB29.7%25832.3%287
LIB23.6%579.6%17
UKIP3.2%014.0%2
Green1.0%15.3%1
SNP1.7%63.8%48
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.4%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 29 Mar 2015, sampling 16,033 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
25%
Conservative majority
17%
Lab/Nat coalition
15%
Con/Nat coalition
12%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
10%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
8%
No overall control
2%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

1 comment:

  1. Your 'advanced modelling techniques' obviously need an overhaul!

    ReplyDelete

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