Latest Live Prediction - UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 by Electoral Calculus

Live Prediction: Labour short 39 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.1%	274
LAB	29.7%	258	32.3%	287
LIB	23.6%	57	9.6%	17
UKIP	3.2%	0	14.0%	2
Green	1.0%	1	5.3%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	3.8%	48
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.4%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 29 Mar 2015, sampling 16,033 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority	25%
Conservative majority	17%
Lab/Nat coalition	15%
Con/Nat coalition	12%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	11%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	10%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	8%
No overall control	2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

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