Wednesday 30 April 2014

PMQ's 30th April 2014

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COMRES - Breakdown of their latest EURO POLL

Thank you to everyone who re tweeted and have since followed me on Twitter, Last count was over 300 interactions. Glad to be of service.
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1167/itv-news-index-european-election-poll.htm

BREAKDOWN OF TNS BMRB EURO POLLING

http://worldwide.tns-global.com/groupmarketing/enewsletter/marketing/imgs/TNSUK_EUVotingIntentions_DataTables2014Apr29.pdf

YOUGOV - What do you think of your party leader?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8cm4ggnrez/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290414.pdf

Tuesday 29 April 2014

NEWARK BY ELECTION (BETTING ODDS / FORM / CANDIDATES)

 ***UPDATE 8.18am***

Farage won't be standing in Newark

Well things are moving fast as 2 candidates have been chosen already

for Conservatives and Labour

twitter.com/RobertJenrick

twitter.com/MichaelPayneUK

The bookies have the odds.

Conservatives 4/5
UKIP 2/1
Labour 4/1
Lib Dems 66/1

and Andyajs has done the form guide showing General Election 2010 versus CC elections 2013

I've done a few calculations using last year's local election results.

The boundaries of the CC divisions don’t match up tidily with the constituency, but these are basically the ones that comprise the Newark constituency:

Bassetlaw: Tuxford.
Newark & Sherwood: Balderton, Collingham, Farndon&Muskham, Newark East, Newark West, Southwell&Caunton.
Rushcliffe: Bingham.

Votes, Newark, 2013 CC elections:

Con: 10,750 (8/8 contested)
Lab: 5,153 (8/8)
UKIP: 3,520 (7/8)
LD: 3,028 (7/8)
Ind: 1,846 (2/8)

Total: 24,297


Percentages:

Con: 44.2%
Lab: 21.2%
UKIP: 14.5%
LD: 12.5%
Ind: 7.6%

Changes from the 2010 general election:

Con: -9.7%
Lab: -1.1%
UKIP: +10.7%
LD: -7.5%
Ind: +7.6%

Not completely accurate because a small portion (in terms of population) of the Radcliffe on Trent CC division is included in the Newark constituency, although most of it is in Rushcliffe. Also a small bit of Tuxford is in Bassetlaw.

2013 CC results:

docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc&pli=1#gid=0

Let the fun begin

PREDICTION FOR UK MEPS USING YOU GOV POLLING

Now I will be the first to admit that when you ask someone on how you are going to do at something, if you have a vested interest you will put a rose tinted view on things. So the piece below is taken from the UKIP DAILY and obviously is going to be pro UKIP. Now if you have an alternative view and would like me to post your predictions using your own methodology then I would gladly post it for you.

Below is the article, having used a breakdown I posted on Sunday YOUGOV EURO POLL

Be glad of your thoughts

Source

YouGov published a Euro Election poll over the weekend where they broke the results down by area of the country. These areas did not correspond exactly with the regions, they were coarser, but the results can be used to attempt to predict the number of MEPs that may be returned in each region.
I have a workbook which calculates the distribution of seats based on the d’Hondt system used in the European Elections. The results of my analysis of the YouGov poll is shown below – the regions are grouped by the areas that YouGov used, the outline results of their poll more conveniently reviewed on the UK General Election 2015 Site. Hence, the predicted percentages for some regions will be identical – clearly, the actual results will vary more between regions, but it’s the best data we have at present.
ChartElections
What conclusions can be drawn from this? For a start, it will be a close run thing in SW England and SE England where Conservatives and Labour are polling the same on 22%. They each could get 1 or 2 seats, depending on which one pushes slightly ahead of the other, and in SW England that outcome may affect whether UKIP gets 2 or 3 seats. Will Gawain Towler get a MEP job in Brussels or not?
The result in NW England is surprising, returning 4 MEPs, which matches that of the SE Region, which has 10 slots instead of the North West’s 8. This means that Shneur Odze gets a job in Brussels, as well as Paul Nuttall, Louise Bours and Steven Woolfe.
The UKIP poll for the North of England, 35%, equalling the South of England, the two most pro-UKIP regions, shows that UKIP’s strategy of working hard to win over the Labour voter in the north is working, where UKIP is ahead of Labour on 33%.
The Liberal Democrats will get slaughtered, of course. They presently have 12 MEPs, and will be reduced to 4 – so much for Nick Clegg’s committing his party to the EU. The Greens will be reduced from 2 to 1 MEP, whilst the SNP will maintain their 2.
History tells us that our poll ratings climb as the election approaches, and there is some evidence that UKIP voters are more likely to vote in low turnout polls. At the moment UKIP is in the lead (based on the poll) with at least 28 MEPs, but it could go higher. Watch this space.

Monday 28 April 2014

BREAKDOWN OF THE LATEST POPULUS POLLING

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Online_VI_28-04-2014_BPC.pdf

Sunday 27 April 2014

YOUGOVS EURO POLL BREAKDOWN OF THE REGIONS

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pjvdg1r9fz/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140525.pdf

APRILS POLITICAL POP CHART

Well, we are now on the run up to what is essentially Christmas for political parties. The rankings below do work similar to heavy rain in the mountains and then flooding days later in the valley. So some parties could have higher traffic now but it could take weeks or even a month to truly reflect in their Alexa ranking. This is due to it being a three month average. But still it is the best for showing trends of those websites.

UKIP have got the highest ranking so far for any political party, BNP seem stubborn to move even though they have barely mustered above a 100 council candidates. It seems that people are still looking at their message. The LibDems have seen a sharp increase in traffic, so even though Clegg may have lost the debate he certainly put his party back on the map. Labour & Conservatives have fallen back with SNP slipping even more be interesting to see how the Independence Referendum plays out coming to September. The Greens are still to reclaim their high position of a few months ago.

We then have the Left Unity with 12 candidates in the council elections yet top ten slot for political parties. Someone is definitely visiting the site. Be interesting to see if like the TUSC who last year achieved top ten status but then fell right back or can it be sustained for the coming months.

Respect have also seen a rise again back into the UK rankings after nearly becoming a no data candidate 5 months ago. The official Loonies have also seen a sharp rise after falling back quite significantly.

Their is a lot of new parties added to the list and will be very interesting to see how this chart develops after the May elections.

Last months rankings are in brackets, and each link is to the ALEXA page for the party not the parties website

ALEXA RANKING EXPLAINED click the link.

UK RANKING

1 (1) UKIP 1,813
2 (2) BNP 4,765
3 (6) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 6,970
4 (3) LABOUR 9,551
5 (5) CONSERVATIVES 9,944
6 (4) SNP 13,839
7 (7) THE GREEN PARTY 18,819
8 (8) JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS 27,223
9 (9) PIRATE PARTY 36,177
10 (-) LEFT UNITY 38,485
11 (10) SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 70,810
12 (-) RESPECT PARTY 79,915
13 (-) OMRLP 121,454

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG 65,467

GLOBAL RANKING

SINN FEIN  733,874 (4,370 RANKED IN EIRE)
NHA PARTY 1,319,777
MEBYON KERNOW 2,257,881 ( 60,167 RANKED IN SPAIN )
AN INDEPENDENCE FROM EUROPE PARTY  2,733,720
ENGLISH DEMOCRAT 3,229,224
DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 2,604,396
NONE OF THE ABOVE 3,550,120
PLAID CYMRU 4,101,979
TUSC 4,205,261
TUV  4,419,662
THE ALLIANCE PARTY  5,541,618
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY  8,541,391
THE LIBERAL PARTY  9,799,067
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE 10,153,984
SOCIALIST LABOUR PARTY  10,592,877
CHRISTIAN PARTY 11,626,295
NI21 13,107,809
NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY 17,349,144
PATRIOTIC SOCIALIST PARTY  19,225,143

NO DATA

THE PEACE PARTY
THE BLUE PARTY
WESSEX REGIONALISTS 
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF GREAT BRITAIN

IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE ALL MY PAST CHARTS FOR POLITICAL POP CHARTS AND CYBER WARRIOR LISTS

FOLLOW THE LINK http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html

Thursday 24 April 2014

STATEMENT OF PARTIES NOMINATED FOR THE UK EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 2014

THE ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD ON MAY 22ND 2014

AND THE UK IS SPLIT INTO 12 REGIONS.

CLICK ON REGION LINK TO GO TO A PAGE WITH INFORMATION ABOUT THAT REGION. AND LINKS FOR THE STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED INFORMATION

EAST OF ENGLAND
10 PARTIES NOMINATED

EAST MIDLANDS
9 PARTIES NOMINATED

LONDON
17 PARTIES NOMINATED

NORTH EAST ENGLAND
8 PARTIES NOMINATED

NORTH WEST ENGLAND
11 PARTIES NOMINATED

NORTHERN IRELAND
10 PARTIES NOMINATED 

SCOTLAND
9 PARTIES NOMINATED


SOUTH EAST ENGLAND
15 PARTIES NOMINATED

SOUTH WEST ENGLAND
8 PARTIES NOMINATED 

WALES
11 PARTIES NOMINATED 

WEST MIDLANDS
11 PARTIES NOMINATED

YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER
10 PARTIES NOMINATED

Council areas where the returning officers for Euro regions are based:

East Midlands: Kettering
Eastern: Chelmsford
London: Lewisham
North East: Sunderland
North West: Manchester
South East: Southampton
South West: Poole
West Midlands: Birmingham
Yorkshire and Humber: Leeds
Scotland: Falkirk
Wales: Pembrokeshire

YOUGOV POLL BREAKDOWN, REGIONAL VOTING V WHO'D MAKE BEST PM?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/beetm8yboc/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230414.pdf

Wednesday 23 April 2014

BBC allocation criteria for PEBs ahead of European and local elections, May 2014




England
European Elections
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (1) list of candidates in each and every region in England will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in England. 
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial levels of past and/or current electoral support across England.
Local Elections
Threshold Criterion
All parties standing candidates in a minimum of ONE SIXTH of the seats being contested will qualify for a single broadcast in England in addition to any European broadcasts.
Additional Criterion
No additional PEBs will be offered for the local elections.

Scotland
European Elections only
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (2) list of candidates in Scotland will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in Scotland.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial levels of past and/or current electoral support across Scotland.

Wales
European Elections only
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (3) list of candidates in Wales will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in Wales.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial levels of past and/or current electoral support across Wales.

Northern Ireland
European Elections
Nb. For the purposes of the European election Northern Ireland is a single three member constituency.  MEPs are elected through the STV (Single Transferable Vote).
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing at least one candidate for the European Parliament and which have current representation in the European Parliament, the House of Commons, or the Northern Ireland Assembly will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in Northern Ireland.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion may qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial levels of past and/or current electoral support across Northern Ireland. 
Local Elections
Threshold Criterion
All parties standing candidates in a minimum of ONE SIXTH of the seats being contested will qualify for a single broadcast in Northern Ireland in addition to any European broadcasts.
Additional Criterion
No additional PEBs will be offered for the local elections.
The provisional allocation of all PEBs is subject to review and amendment until after the confirmation of nominations. 
(1) A party may be deemed to be standing a full list if it is clear that it intended to stand a full list but at a late stage failed to do so, for example, because a candidate had to withdraw.
(2) See above
(3) See Footnote1above.

LATEST YOUGOV POLLING


http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/zvvptj27x4/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220414.pdf

Tuesday 22 April 2014

List of 554 TUSC candidates for Mays local elections

Below is the link for the list of candidates which will be standing for the TUSC in May's local council elections

http://www.tusc.org.uk/txt/295.pdf

and below is an interview as Dave Nellist says that the TUSC will be the 6th largest when it comes to the May Council elections.




Latest populus polling, young v old voters

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Online_VI_22-04-2014_BPC.pdf

Mapping out the UK General Election 2015

Found this great blog with a insight into the next election thru the power of maps. read more at  http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/   or follow on twitter

Find below part of an article from the above blog

I want to use this post to examine the political map in the 2015 UK general election in much the same way. The aim of this post is NOT to get into long drawn-out discussions about which seats are already in the bag for any of the political parties. I know I will get some respondents disagreeing with my methods. I know that many of you will likely have different criterion on which you judge a seat to be 'safe'. If you want to get into a debate about what is or isn't a 'safe' seat this is the wrong place to do so. Rather I want to show how the UK is not that different from its cousins across the pond. We too have our 'goat seats'. We too have zones and areas of the country where it would be cost-effective for the campaigns to avoid.

So, let's make a start. I am going to start by listing the seats where the same winning party has polled over 50% in the last four general elections. So, for example in Aberavon Labour have polled 51.9, 60.1, 63.1, and 71.3 per cent in the last four elections, each time securing winning margins of at least 35%. Similarly in Hampshire North East the Conservatives have polled 60.6, 53.1, 53.2 and 50.9 per cent in the last four elections, each time securing winning margins of at least 28%. There are 52 such constituencies in the United Kingdom, with a population of over 5 million and an area of 4,791 square kilometres. Half of these seats are in London or the North West and are predominantly Labour-dominated. In fact only seven of the 52 are not currently dominated by Labour. The map below shows their distribution.



Next I took those seats which the same winning party has secured majorities of over 20% in each of the last four elections. This added another 51 seats to the 52 we already have. So now there are 103 seats with large majorities and/or massive vote share for a single party. These 103 seats account for almost 10 million people in seats with an area of 19,937 square kilometres. This is an area roughly the size of Wales, with a population greater than the cities of London, Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow combined. The map is shown below:


I did the same for those seats with consistent 15%+ winning majorities for a single party from at least the last three elections, and included those which have only had two elections due to new parliamentary boundaries. This further shrinks the map. There are now 215 constituencies which have established consistent large majorities, large enough to be outside the reasonable expectation of a seat changing hands. These 215 constituencies comprise 20,576,440 people, around a third of the population. These constituencies take up an area of almost 70,000 square kilometres. The map is shown below:


The final stage was to use my own judgement in selecting those seats where one could reasonably expect a particular party to win. In doing this I used those seats my own models are projecting to be a very high probability of success for a particular party. These judgement calls are clearly personal, and in the weeks and months to come I expect to reveal some of the methods I use here. However, I have purposely being very conservative in these choices on this occasion and set my models up likewise. This further shrinks the map, although I must say here that I would personally 'call' a number of seats not included based on my experience and the numbers. That said, even with a conservative setting, the map now shows 351 seats where it is reasonable to assume the result is known in 2015.

These 351 seats have a population of 33,881,216 people with a land area of 114,919 square kilometres. This is an area equal to the whole of England excluding the East Midlands, over half of the population. The map is shown below:


I know many of you will challenge both my methods and assumptions. But this post is intended to display the geography of political priorities and to underline how, for many people, politics is simply not worth the effort. In future posts I will further analyse the geographical distribution of the target seats of all the main parties, together with the efficacy of campaign spending. For now it's enough to simply present the numbers.

Monday 21 April 2014

PPC's The latest most up to date list for 2015 UK General Elections

Link for...
PROSPECTIVE PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE SELECTIONS FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTION

The list has been updated and as such, is as up to date as we know, follow the link above if you would like to know who has been chosen as PPC

360 LABOUR
211 CONSERVATIVE
140 LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
90 UKIP
26 THE GREEN PARTY
25 PLAID CYMRU
18 CLASS WAR PARTY
2 MEBYON KERNOW
2 JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS PARTY
1 HEALTH CONCERN
1 TUSC
1 SDLP
1 PIRATE PARTY
1 NHA PARTY

Your help with links for PPC websites would be gratefully received.

Feel free to leave a comment with the information.

Latest ICM Euro poll for Scotland


http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-says-scots-more-likely-to-vote-yes-if-they-think-the-torys-will-win-th.1398070214
People in Scotland are more likely to vote for independence if they think the Conservatives will win the next UK general election, a poll suggests.
But the prospect of a Labour government would see a surge in support for the union, with more voters rejecting independence, the ICM poll found.
ICM recorded the highest overall support for independence since last August at 48% excluding "don't knows", results reported in the Scotland on Sunday revealed.
If the Tories look like winning the 2015 general election the Yes campaign could be on the cusp of victory at 49% excluding undecided voters, according to further ICM results published today by sister paper The Scotsman.
The party, which has one MP in Scotland, could also lose its only Scottish MEP to Eurosceptic party Ukip at the European elections next month, the poll suggests.
Overall, ICM found 39% in support of independence with 42% against and 19% undecided.
The prospect of a Tory government would see a two per cent swing from undecided to boost Yes to 41% while the No vote remains unchanged.
The prospect of a Labour government would see support for independence fall to 36%, support for the union surge to 44% and leave 20% undecided.
Support for Ukip is on the rise and they are on the verge of becoming Scotland's third most popular party in the European Parliament, according to ICM voting intentions.
The SNP remains the most popular party at 37%, although support is down 4% on last month, with Labour holding fairly steady in second place at 28%.
Tory support has dropped two points to 11% while support for Ukip is up four points to 10%.
Lib Dem support was two points up at 7% while the Greens remained unchanged at 4%.
ICM interviewed an online sample of 1,004 Scottish adults aged 16+ on 14-16 April 2014.

Survation, Is too much of England run from London?

Is too much of England run from London? Public Back Regional Decision Making (Survation for Devolve Deliver)  
  • In new polling looking at the potential appetite for regional devolution in England, 65% to 13% of the public agreed that “too much of England is run from London” and the statement  “London receives preferential treatment over the rest of the UK” had a significant 70% agreement vs 16% for the opposing statement
 
  • The public do not support a level of devolved power for England that Scotland and Wales currently experience, but backed more economic powers being delivered at a local or regional level by 50% to 33%. Local and regional devolution of transport decisions was backed by 61% to 23%
 
  • The Labour Party’s recent moves to discuss such devolution may find support from a sceptical public of whom only 8% trusted Government ministers over others for decisions about local service delivery. 40% told Survation they were more likely (net) to vote for a party which promised to devolve more power to their  area vs. only 8% (net) less likely

Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation Chief Executive, said:

"These results show that a majority of the public are unhappy with the degree to which power in the UK is centralised in London. Whilst there is not support for full Scotland-style devolution in English regions, there is clearly an appetite to see powers in many areas, including transport, service delivery and even some economic powers, wrested away from central government and handed over to more local bodies. With a majority of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters saying they would be more likely to support a party promising to devolve powers, it seems that Ed Miliband has potential gains to make from his increased focus on this area."


Full data tables are available here.


Keep up to date with all of Survation’s research and analysis
on our blog.  
Find out more about the services Survation provide by following this link.
For general enquiries, please call 0203 142 7640 or email enquiry@survation.com

Sunday 20 April 2014

EASTLEIGH BETTING ODDS

Here is the betting odds since last nights survation survey Click here to see the survey results

Saturday 19 April 2014

And this is where electoral Calculus fails

National Prediction: LAB majority 56

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30722.00%0124183
LAB29.66%25830.00%950353
LIB23.56%578.00%02829
UKIP3.17%027.00%56056
NAT2.26%92.26%009
MIN0.89%190.89%1020
OTH3.48%09.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

I have just put in the ICM polling information to see just what may happen. It not only suggests UKIP would win 57 but some of their greatest bets now such as Great Yarmouth would be won by Labour, where as if UKIP did ever get 27% I am sure that would be one of the first notched up on the board. It also thinks that Lib Dems on 8% would still save half their seats. With that kind of share of the vote even Mr Clegg would be twitchy in Sheffield Hallam. Great tool but very much flawed at times.

Eastleigh Constituency – Survation for Alan Bown


http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Eastleigh-Constituency-Poll-Alan-Bown-MOS-April-20th.pdf

An Independence From Europe

As the parties make a launch for the European elections here is a MEP who was elected as UKIP but now fighting the election with An Independence From Europe Party. How much of an affect will this have? Well when the results roll in we will find out. http://www.aipmep.org/

Friday 18 April 2014

Latest populus polling

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Online_VI_17-04-2014_BPC.pdf

The Student Vote 2014

Research highlights
  • Liberal Democrats at lowest ebb with students since 2004
  • Green Party student support at highest ever level
  • Students are pro-Europe
  • Labour still students top choice
  • Scottish students want to remain part of the UK


http://www.youthsight.com/media-centre/press/the-student-vote-2014/



Labour hires Obama campaign chief David Axelrod

 Mr Axelrods first job I guess is to sort the perception over leadership and party, people vote for the party but think the leadership is lacking.
YOUGOV POLL - WHICH PARTY IS LED BY PEOPLE OF ABILITY?

From BBC website

The Labour Party has appointed US election strategist David Axelrod as a strategic adviser on leader Ed Miliband's 2015 election campaign.
Mr Axelrod was a key architect of Barack Obama's victory over John McCain in the 2008 presidential race.
He will work alongside shadow foreign secretary, Douglas Alexander, who is to run Labour's general election strategy.
Labour will also call on Mr Axelrod's consulting, firm AKVD, in its bid to win power, BBC Newsnight revealed.
After masterminding Mr Obama's election to the White House, Mr Axelrod went on to become a senior adviser to the president.

Start Quote

Ed Miliband understands the struggle that people are going through in Britain to make a living wage, to support their families, to retire with some dignity”
David Axelrod US election strategist
He quit the post in 2011 in order to work on the successful 2012 campaign to re-elect Mr Obama.
The strategist has since acted as a media commentator and as a director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago.
'Huge asset' Ed Miliband hailed the appointment as "excellent news" and predicted the strategist would be a "huge asset to our campaign as we work to show the British people how we can change our country for the better".
Mr Axelrod said he had been struck by the power of the Labour leader's ideas and the "strength of his vision".

LATEST YOUGOV POLL - WHICH PARTY IS LED BY PEOPLE OF ABILITY?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xc4okgl821/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170414.pdf

THE SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY EUROPEAN ELECTION CANDIDATES

Just something I found on my travels, a full list of candidates for the SEP in the North West of England.

http://socialequality.org.uk/

The Socialist Equality Party is proud to announce our slate of eight candidates to stand in the North West region for the 2014 European Elections.

Chris Marsden, 52, is the national secretary of the Socialist Equality Party and a member of the Editorial Board of the World Socialist Web Site.
Julie Hyland, 49, is assistant national secretary of the Socialist Equality Party and a member of the Editorial Board of the World Socialist Web Site.
Robert Skelton, 44, writes regularly for the World Socialist Web Site, with a focus on the disclosures by whistleblower Edward Snowden of mass illegal surveillance by the US and British security services.
Lucy Warren, 25, is a Learning Support Assistant. She joined the SEP in 2010, and is a member of its youth organization, the International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE).
Mark Dowson, 39, is a call centre worker. He joined the SEP in 2011 out of his experiences in the Occupy movement and writes for the World Socialist Web Site on the National Health Service and social conditions in Britain and Europe.
Ajitha Gunaratne, 46, works in the National Health Service. He joined the Revolutionary Communist League, forerunner of the SEP in Sri Lanka in 1990. He writes on the NHS.
Joe Heffer, 25, is a postgraduate student at the University of Liverpool. He joined the SEP in 2009 and is a member of the International Youth and Students for Social Equality. He writes on issues facing students and young people for the World Socialist Web Site.
Danny Dickinson, 66, is a retiree having worked as a seaman, car and rail worker and for the Pilkington group, St Helens. A socialist his entire adult life, he writes for the World Socialist Web Site on the struggles of workers in Britain.

Thursday 17 April 2014

COMRES POLLWATCH: When we take justice for granted


POLLWATCH:
When we take justice for granted
The entire criminal justice system, according to The Independent on 10th January this year, is infiltrated by organised crime gangs. That was the conclusion of a leaked Scotland Yard report which was supposed to remain secret.
We could certainly be forgiven for thinking that corruption is rife throughout the great institutions of state.  The integrity of the police, hammered by the tragic mishandling of the Stephen Lawrence case, was hit further as the phone hacking scandal exposed appalling corruption.  Phone hacking also revealed wrongdoing by print journalists, some close to the heart of political power, while the BBC’s reputation was tarnished by numerous revelations about Jimmy Savile. The political establishment has gone through five years of torment over the expenses scandal with powerful aftershocks still being felt today.  Nor has the Church escaped, especially the Romish one whose reputation globally lies in tatters.
These and other scandals have left scars in the public psyche, but how deep does distrust run?  Is the UK really facing a crisis of confidence in its ability to run things cleanly? And is that distrust justified?
Recent ComRes research for International Justice Mission (IJM), published to coincide with The Locust Effect – written by IJM’s Founder and CEO Gary Haugen reveals a wide seam of disaffection with the UK’s justice system.
The good news is that most people, 59%, are ‘generally satisfied that Britain operates under the rule of law’.  Also encouraging is that while there is a gap in confidence between older and younger people, the latter register as more sceptical largely because there are more who decline to offer a view at all.
And this positive outlook translates into confidence in how people live their lives: 54% report feeling safe walking alone at night in the area where they live, despite a big variation between men and women.
But the real shocker in the survey is the revelation that between a third and 40% of people regard the criminal justice system as corrupt, depending on which part of it you ask about.
Most significantly, 40% do not agree that ‘generally speaking, people in Britain are treated equally under the law’ - yet that is a fundamental tenet of our legal system.  Similarly 37% cannot agree with the statement that ‘I don’t generally regard the British Government as corrupt’.
On the efficacy of the justice system again we find a surprisingly large pocket of disquiet: 36% believe the police in Britain ‘have a significant corruption problem’ (agreeing, it would seem, with Scotland Yard’s own ‘secret’ report) and a further 34% ‘do not trust the courts in Britain to deliver just outcomes’.
Across every measure, people in lower income groups are the most negative towards the ability of the State to see that justice is done.  Forty-four percent in social group DE, which includes the jobless and dispossessed, regard the British Government as corrupt, compared to 31% in social group AB at the other end of the spectrum.  Similarly 49% of DEs do not believe people are generally treated equally under the law, compared to 34% of the more privileged ABs.
The proportion of people who feel safe walking at night compares extremely favourably with countries where the rule of law is so clearly a major problem and a cause of inequality and injustice.  At 54% it is much higher, for example, than in Venezuela (34%), South Africa (38%), Paraguay (40%), Costa Rica (41%) and Bolivia (43%),
It is this more positive personal experience of safety which reveal the reality that access to justice is far worse in many parts of the Developing World than in Britain.  A 2008 United Nations report estimates that four billion people live outside of the protection of the rule of law. The Locust Effect points to other global studies which reveal troubling trends showing that ‘everyday violence’ – acts of violence that are already against the law, including rape, forced labour, sex trafficking, land grabbing and police brutality – not only threaten the safety of billions of people worldwide but significantly undermine international development efforts aimed at ending poverty across the world.
As author Haugen points out, “the answer to ending global poverty lies first and foremost in ending common, everyday violence and introducing effective local law enforcement. The problem is that the justice systems are so broken that they do not shield the poor from violence.”
He goes on to suggest a reason why, while people in the UK feel more secure than their counterparts in the developing world, many Britons are still deeply pessimistic about their country’s justice institutions.  Law enforcement ‘is a service that is often out of sight, out of mind’ and Haugen suggests that affluent societies have grown so accustomed to the comfort of a secure and effective justice system that we focus more on its failings than its efficacy.
Haugen’s global analysis does seem to be echoed in the variations in our own British attitudes survey; it is particularly troubling that the poor in our own country have the greatest distrust of the institutions created to defend us.
But while we in the prosperous West fret over corrupt police selling personal information to tabloid journalists, however odious that may be, we must not get out of proportion the huge advantages we enjoy. Our justice system largely works impartially and effectively.  Girls here do not boycott school for fear of being sexually assaulted, the poor are not routinely run off their property and we do not fear being arrested for a crime we have not committed in order to satisfy a bribe-greedy police force.
Haugen’s book is a great antidote to our lack of appreciation for the advantages we enjoy, and an important contribution to the literature about why so many languish in poverty and how they deserve our help.
For more information go to www.TheLocustEffect.com
Author:

Andrew Hawkins, ComRes Chairman
@Andrew_ComRes
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