Wednesday 30 January 2013

Turkeys don't vote for extension of Christmas. Shock!!!

Plans to redraw constituency boundaries before 2015, backed by the Tories, have been defeated in the House of Commons.
MPs voted by 334 to 292 to accept changes made by peers, meaning the planned constituency shake-up will be postponed until 2018 at the earliest

Click here for the full report

Funnily enough Labour and the Lib Dems voted against a proposal as you will see from information below would have given a big swing to the Conservatives in percentage of seats in the new Parliament. Lib Dems themselves were the least affected but it would mean that the Conservatives had the best chance of winning power by themselves and Labour would have to had done a lot better than they have to do now to seize power again.

So the changes have been defeated and the old system stays in place. Personally I would prefer a proportional represented system as too many minor parties have next to no chance at winning a seat in parliament and getting their voice heard. for example the green party got 285,000 votes to gain one seat where on average Labour and the Conservatives just needed 35,000 votes for every MP they have.

 Is that fair ?

Party2010 Votes2010 Actual Seats2010 Notional SeatsChange

Tuesday 29 January 2013

Could there be a Eastleigh by-election?

Click here for the news story

This has been rattling on for a while about Chris Huhne and all the allegations around speeding and getting his wife to take the fall. Well it goes to trial next Monday. So what of the result of the trial will it mean if the verdict goes the wrong way will Chris Huhne have to fall on his sword? As so many other MPs have had to do in this parliament so far.

Now at the expense of Labour Chris Huhne actually extended his majority in the 2010 general election. Now if there is By-election this year will be a seat that the Tories could win or could Labour nick another one we can see that they had 20% support in 2005 but I think even in the wonderments of By-elections where anything goes that is a long stretch for them to win. It may well be a case of will UKIP stop the Tories from winning? Just how much Lib Dem support will dissolve?

Not that I hope any bad will for Chris Huhne but this would be one juicy By-election mid term which could throw up all sorts of pointers.

Name Party Votes % +/-
Chris Huhne Liberal Democrat 24,966 46.5 +8.2
Maria Hutchings Conservative 21,102 39.3 +2.1
Leo Barraclough Labour 5,153 9.6 -11.5
Ray Finch UK Independence Party 1,933 3.6 +0.2
Tony Stephen Pewsey English Democrats 249 0.5 +0.5
Dave Stone Independent 154 0.3 +0.3
Keith Low National Democrats 93 0.2 +0.2
Majority 3,864 7.2
Turnout 53,650 69.4 +5.0

Monday 28 January 2013

Cameron only swayed the don't knows not UKIP voters



It seems everyone was looking at how Camerons in/out referendum pledge took voters away from UKIP but what it seemed to have done is take away voters from the don't know section.

If you look at the section where it asks who did you vote for before it was 13% tory who were now UKIP voters. In the poll taken afterwards the share had actually gone up to 15% Tories now voting UKIP.

The ones Cameron who had seemed to have wooed was the not going to vote which fell from 4% to 1% and the don't knows from 13% to 12%

He had also managed to take 4% from the Labour vote pile but this was only not noticed by Labour because they had taken twice as many from the Lib Dems.

Labour voters in 2010 who are now calling themselves Tory voters was at 2% this went up to 6% after the speech But Lib Dems in 2010 but Labour today went from 36% up to 44%

If the Tories are to win the next election they need to take more from the Labour and Lib Dems because the Tories actually lost 2% of former lib dem voters with that speech.

In summary its not UKIPers Cameron got but the floaters.

The real worries in all this though should be the Lib Dems because they are losing people to everyone. What will Clegg pull out of the bag to get the 44% of voters he has lost to Labour?

Saturday 26 January 2013

Latest polls show good news for the Tories

Source of latest polling information political betting

As I had wrote (click here for blogpost) the in/out referendum was to get the UKIP voters back within the Tory fold and it seems to have had a short term effect. one in three voters becoming don't knows and 13% of your voters turning to UKIP and the Tories had to do something to bandage up the deep wound within their party.

Will it last ?

View image on Twitter

Latest odds for year of next election

Can you get 33% interest down the bank? So if I was you I would be putting my money on 2015. It just isn't going to be any other year unless something very dramatic happens.

Year of next General Election

Peter Stringfellow may stand against Nick Clegg

 As with a lot of the stories between now and the coming General Election a lot of celebrities of all class will try to get them self a bit of column space by saying they may or may not stand here is one of those such stories me thinks.

Stripclub owner Peter Stringfellow has suggested he could stand against Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg in the General Election due to be held in 2015.
The 72-year-old has twice been singled out by the Liberal Democrat leader as someone who does not deserve state-funded pensioner benefits.
Sheffield-born Mr Stringfellow said that at his age he had "done everything a guy would probably like to do ... and I might take a serious view of moving into politics".
Asked by LBC radio's James Whale about the chances he might stand in Mr Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency, he said: "I think 'why not?'. It has opened my mind to the possibility and the idea of going back to my home city and taking him on would be my first choice.
"Everybody knows my clubs are full of beautiful girls taking their clothes off. I don't want to be Hugh Hefner ... so a bit later on in life I like the idea of going into politics and I think I could contribute the reality."
The millionaire nightclub owner has been angered by the Deputy PM using him to highlight his fight to take the winter fuel payment from wealthy pensioners, a move opposed by Prime Minister David Cameron.
"You cannot ask people to take big cuts in their ... benefits, and say it's ok for Peter Stringfellow and Alan Sugar to be given a whole bunch of free benefits when they don't need it, paid for by other taxpayers," he has said.
Mr Stringfellow is a Tory supporter but acknowledged he would probably have to stand as an independent because of his business interests.
And he added that he would live in the South Yorkshire city, saying: "My God, do you know how cheap those bloody big houses are up there."

Friday 25 January 2013



When you dissect the figures you can see why David Cameron tried to woo the UKIP voter as his party is losing 13% of the Tory vote to UKIP which is the largest proportion of the big three. That 13% would be make or break for the party and wipe out the Labour lead so you can see a lot more wooing for the UKIP vote over the next few years me thinks.

But the very interesting part of the figures is the Don't Knows. One in Five Lib Dems who voted for them in 2010 now don't know who to vote for and if you combine the Lib Dem and Tory 2010 voters who now don't know it makes one in three of there voters floating in the don't know section.

LATEST YouGov opinion poll

YouGov / The Sun Survey Results
Sample Size: 2045 GB Adults
Fieldwork: 22nd - 23rd January 2013


Thursday 24 January 2013

All back to normal with the betting

It seems after yesterday mornings flurry of betting for the Conservatives it came back with a Labour win and hung parliament second. The other party win actually doubled from .3% to .6% then again that is like saying my odds of winning the lottery have halved from 15 million to 0ne to seven million to one because I have bought another ticket.

UK General Election 2015

Predicted outcome:

1 day7 day
Labour Majority40.87%
Hung Parliament35.38%
Conservative Majority23.12%
Other Party Majority0.63%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 08:01:09, Thu 24 January 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

Wednesday 23 January 2013

Is the referendum desire something we have heard before?


Now today's news is full of the in/out referendum which David Cameron is promising to give if his party wins the next General Election. But I was just looking thru news reviews from the past and found the above link. Now I don't want to rain on his parade but he has offered this before and nothing has happened in this parliament.

As much as I love General Elections I also like to look back at the wishes and promises of politicians and how well they live up to them in the future once they have your vote.

Its for you all to decide.


It seems there has been a massive swing for a hung parliament and for the Conservative party to win it has also seen a big dip in thoughts that Labour will win lets see what the opinion polls bring in the next few days.

UK General Election 2015

Predicted outcome:

1 day7 day
Hung Parliament37.52%
Labour Majority35.90%
Conservative Majority26.03%
Other Party Majority0.56%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 11:00:22, Wed 23 January 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.


As David Cameron is to make his speech on Europe the betfair market shows over a half a percent rise to the Conservatives and a 0.08% drop for Labour.

UK General Election 2015

Predicted outcome:

1 day7 day
Labour Majority43.40%
Hung Parliament34.60%
Conservative Majority21.70%
Other Party Majority0.30%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 08:01:12, Wed 23 January 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

Tuesday 22 January 2013

General Election Prediction Current Prediction: Labour majority 96


General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 96

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
LIB23.56%57 9.46%19
NAT 2.26%9 3.54%16
MIN 7.54%1915.20%19
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Dec 12 to 21 Dec 12, sampling 8,167 people.

UK General Election 2015 Predicted outcome:

UK General Election 2015

Predicted outcome:

1 day7 day
Labour Majority43.48%
Hung Parliament35.04%
Conservative Majority21.17%
Other Party Majority0.30%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 22:01:46, Tue 22 January 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.


All being well the next general election should be set for MAY 2015 on this blog I will deal with the run up to that election. I have no support for one political party or the other but I do like the atmosphere of the general election night. I am also sad enough to feel excited when the parliament channel re run a past election so if like me you like stat porn feel free to make your contribution.