Thursday 28 February 2013

EASTLEIGH BY-ELECTION GOSSIP

It draws close to the end of voting and there will be many twist I think before the end of the night. I have had many rumours that UKIP will run the Liberal Democrats very closely. If you have any rumours leave them in the comments section.

first rumour from a local UKIP activist

Local press are calling it for UKIP! I can't believe it though... 2nd would be massive! #talkinglikeafeckingtwitter


I'm HEARING from a Top press source Are in front in

ok this could be for publicity but if its right..... wowzer... i think its for advertising though. it is the official Kate Moss

9.39pm Lib Dem drop from 1/9 on down to 1/5 UKIP move from 9/1 to 6/1

9.51 UKIP down to 7/2 

9.55 click here for reuters news UKIP vote surges reported 13mins ago. Is this what the rumours are about.

10.11 news from the count postal votes being counted now momentum is with UKIP but libdems dropping from hot favourites to should win, and could hold on. Not a ringing endorsement.

10.17 local news reporting UKIP doing well from the ballot box but Lib dems done well from the postal votes.

10.30 BBC saying libdem quietly optimistic and UKIP playing down their chances. seems to match betting markets lib dem shorten to 1/6 UKIP out to 6/1

10.38 betting markets spike lib dems drops to 1/14 on UKIP out to 13/1

22.46: As I said on 5live a moment ago – the only party with the real smiles on their faces tonight are UKIP. Their supporters think they’re going to see something special tonight. http://labourlist.org/2013/02/eastleigh-by-election-liveblog/

22.59 Allegra Stratton on Newsnight say both Lib Dems and UKIP are saying it's neck and neck. UKIP polled well on the day, Lib Dems had a big lead on postals.

23.04 http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/eastleigh-by-election-party-protest/2284 Michael Crick has been positive about UKIP all week is this another positive sign?

23.06 sky news are saying libdem likely to have retained UKIP beating Tories

23.27
Theres been a few boxes done now and all you can say is its tight between Ukip/con/lib dem

the bookies are really strengthening on libdems though. One thing is for sure Labour is definitely fourth.

23.35
Lib dems look like they have nose in front - this is working out like polls and bookies have predicted

23.41 LIB DEMS 1/14 ON UKIP 12/1 TORIES 142/1 THATS NOT A MISS PRINT IT IS 142/1 LOL

23.38: A very credible Labour source tells me that UKIP could be as little as 2% behind the Lib Dems….http://labourlist.org/2013/02/eastleigh-by-election-liveblog/ 

23.51 Unless something miraculous happens it is starting to look like a libdem win 1/19 with the bookies UKIP 2nd 15/1 as 20 of the 68 ballot boxes have been counted now. 

UKIP NOW SECOND FAV TO WIN EASTLEIGH

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/eastleigh/winning-party

In the past three hours UKIP have become second favourites everywhere bar Ladbrokes to win Eastleigh

Is it someone knows some facts or wishful thinking?

UKIP MOST POPULAR PARTY IN THE UK

I have been on twitter for most of the morning and had noticed just how much of the populous support UKIP were getting so thought I would wander over to alexa ranking tool and thought I would check just how popular parties were by site visits here is the results.

I used the official party site of each party and the ranking is that based in the UK.

speaks for itself really.

 http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/


UKIP ARE RANKED 8040th
LABOUR ARE RANKED 9171th
CONSERVATIVES ARE RANKED 17937th
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ARE RANKED 20005th

LATEST ODDS FOR EASTLEIGH BY ELECTION

 Lib Dems seem to becoming firm favourites and UKIP is drifting. But it wouldn't be a gamble if the favourite always won. There is also a disparage between William Hills and the other Bookies.

FROM LADBROKES
 Liberal Democrats     2/7            
Conservatives     4/1             
UKIP     7/1             
Labour     100/1              National Health Action     200/1              Danny Stupple (IND)     200/1              TUSC     250/1              Peace Party     250/1              English Democrats     250/1              Wessex Regionalists     500/1              Beer, Baccy & Crumpet Party     500/1              Christian Party     500/1              Monster Raving Loony     1000/1              Elvis Loves Pets     1000/1

BUT WILLIAM HILLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE

Liberal Democrats 1/3 and the Conservatives and UKIP are level at 9/2

There is a problem with the Ladbrokes site but vast difference between the two

I have had a look on BET365 Lib Dems 2/7 Tories 4/1 UKIP 13/2
and BETFRED have Lib Dems 1/3 Tories 7/2 UKIP 11/2

So it seems William Hills are either finger on the pulse or out of kilter.

BEER, BACCY AND CRUMPET PARTY MANIFESTO

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE FULL DOCUMENT

RAY HALL may never get elected but I certainly agree with a majority of what he has to say. We do differ over Europe though.



I have about 20 proposals to beat austerity with no cutting, all cures.

1.    The Beer, Baccy & Crumpet Party would reduce the Excise Duty to zero on Draught Beer served in Pubs, clubs and restaurants etc. This would halt the closure of these iconic and very British Heritage institutions.  2000 jobs per year would be saved and The Revenue would still collect Excise Duty and VAT from the other sales from these establishments.
2.    A pub is often the hub of a community and a vital meeting place. Many Pubs have closed since the smoking ban. Although now a non-smoker I think we should consider a smoking area in pubs that would not inconvenience other customers. I am not being trite! Can you imagine our magnificent country without a pub? Gotta act now! Before its too late! This is a win win win win position. The village keeps its pub, the staff still have a job, the drinker his pint, the Inland Revenue it’s tax and no one is on the dole.

3.    Thirdly we must curb the practices of the Banks and Financial Institutions robbing and ripping us off. Most banks, are owned by us and licenced by regulation. Ineffective.  My edict is that USURY practices must cease forthwith.

Currently when an account customer goes a small sum over his/her limit, say by just £1, the following day banks slap a £30 to £40 penalty on them. In my book this is blatent usury, by the back door, at an interest rate of over 10,000% (ten thousand percent).

Henceforth, if the customer repays the sum within 7 days they will only pay the appropriate interest. This edict will also apply to other financial and utility companies.

In the war against austerity it is essential that incomes are not diminished by sharp practice. Rather they should be spent in the community to the betterment of society, not fat bloated bankers.

4.    Student Loans. Barefaced lies from the Lib Dems promised abolition. They reneged when it came to the crunch and they were in power.

Our students are the lifeblood of this country, the seed corn that will produce the next harvest. Politicians should be ashamed, not just the Lib Dems the whole rotten bunch who’ve failed to rectify the problem. 

Don’t worry guys I have an idea that may reduce your debts at the end of courses by 66 2/3% Therefore a £30K loan will become £10K payable by the student via Tax Code.

The other £20K will be paid via parents and grandparents, many of whom have enjoyed enormous windfall appreciation on property values. As with student loans generally, means testing would apply.

I don’t think its fair for students to be saddled with debt. Its psychologically damaging and fiscally problematic. For example, go for a mortgage and it might count against you.

5.    Parking Charges and Penalties can vary enormously, however another BB&C edict is that they should be free for the first 20 minutes then 50p per hour. It works well in Wickham, Hants. Penalty charges would be £10.00 max for not paying and 50p per minute for overstay.

Remember we own this land and expect fair and reasonable service from the local administrators. Reasonable Parking charges will encourage High St trading currently being lost to The Malls, who don’t charge parking !! Benefits hence; convenience, less shop closure, greener shopping trips.

6.    Fuel charges keep rising, Gas, electric and petrol. Something can be done here in regard to charging.  Everybody will automatically be placed on the lowest tariff, as per David Camerons edict, but I go further. Energy companies will not be allowed to raise funds for future investment by inflating the cost of energy used. Development costs should be arranged when needed. If you bought a car for £20K, you wouldn’t pay an extra £2K towards the next model.

7.    I would like to reassure pensioners who have told me that they are concerned about losing their £200 vital winter fuel allowances and their essential bus passes.  I promise to give it my best shot!

8.    The new proposed rail link London to Birmingham then West and Eastwards should be put on hold.  Its too expensive at £30 billion. And the benefits; 20 minutes less travelling time to Birmingham? Incidental, who cares? Not to mention the environmental damage to some beautiful countryside.

9.    Stop shilly shallying over the new Airport Runway for London. Heathrow should be the best option, get cracking we need it.

10.                       Eastleigh Civic Centre is planning a move to new buildings nearer the Town Centre, according to planning boards in the current offices. Can the Lib Dem councillors advise on the costs which might be born by the ratepayers? To me it seems crazy to move a mile or so into the town centre and at the same time move away from 90% of the regions. Is this move essential or is it just Lib Dem profligacy? What parking will be available, if any? Beer, Baccy & Crumpet policy is that the Civic Offices should remain where they are, until such time as the financial situation improves.

11.                       For big savings and a fair deal to families with children, cancel the plans to means test Family Allowance.  It is unfair. Savings would arise through less bureaucracy. Better that HMRC tweak Tax Code and high earners pay a little more tax, but retain their family allowance..

12.                       For Mansion tax read jealousy tax. Most of these homeowners give massive benefits to the community.  They give work for upkeep, rates, tax, and other taxes, conversely they take less – e.g. NHS, Education, Spend more in the markets creating more jobs. This tax is unfair because a portfolio may contain a property worth £1.8 million, a pension pot worth £2 million an art collection worth £2 million, a stamp collection worth £1 million, a classic car collection worth £1 million and a yacht worth £500K. A portfolio total of £8.3 million would not attract any tax. A widow may reside in the family home worth £2million and be forced to pay £20,000 per annum and only have an income of £10,000 

13.                       Organ transplant system. A person who gives a kidney, a donor does so on a lease basis.  Therefore if the donor’s remaining kidney fails he would be able to end the lease.  His old kidney would be re attached and the original recipient should be able to find a new donor from a list with far more donors due to the lease lend system. The donors listed would enjoy priority if they themselves needed an organ, possibly a liver or heart, thus encouraging donors to come forward.

14.                       Capital punishment should be reintroduced for premeditated murder. Subject to EU regulations.

15.                       Solicitors and professional fees tend to be expensive for the ordinary working person and may come as a terrible shock at the end of a case. I would propose that professional fees are clearly displayed for clients to peruse before undertaking these services.

16.                       Prisoners should be made to work for their keep and incarceration, television and other recreational benefits.

17.                       Regarding the current income tax rates, the 10p tax rate cancelled by Gordon Brown and raised to 20p should be re-introduced immediately, to help poorer people suffering inflationary problems.

18.                       Devolution. I believe that we are one of the main players in the European union of 27 nations and that rather than leave we should sort out the problems in the European Parliament. Hopefully the Scottish people will take the same stance at their forthcoming referendum and remain within the European Union and the family of Great Britain.

19.                       Tourism is a core business for the UK. This should be aggressively promoted. There are enormous benefits to be made.

20.                       Men in grey suits should make way for men in boiler suits.
 


What are your thoughts?

MERRY BY-ELECTION DAY

Like an excited child I am up early to unwrap the presents of news reports and interviews from last night. I will be viewing twitter and the web to watch the events unfold. Today is just like Christmas but without the cost or the running around wondering if you have bought everyone the right gift. You can simply sit back and enjoy.

For those with a vested interest I am guessing it is all a different story. But all the same I do wish you all good luck. (well some more luck than others) and lets see what excitement the result brings early tomorrow morning.

Merry by election day one and all.

Wednesday 27 February 2013

HAS UKIP'S FARAGE DEFECTED TO THE LOONY'S?

UKIP DRAW LEVEL WITH TORIES IN EASTLEIGH


Eastleigh bets so far - 18.5% for Lab; 24.8% UKIP; 25.7% LD;29.3%.Conservatives.Odds: 1/3 LD;9/2 UKIP/Con;100/1Lab.

It was only a matter of time but now UKIP AND TORIES ARE JT SECOND FAV. FOR EASTLEIGH...

Sharpangle has also explained that the labour percentage of bets was from the first week and it has completely tailed off now.

UKIP CLOSE IN ON 2ND FAV FOR EASTLEIGH

 In my last post I informed you of how Ladbrokes have set a promotion where if the Tories win you can get your money back on Lib Dem and UKIP bets. So I thought I would nip over to William Hills to see what they have to offer.

To my surprise it shows that UKIP are just one point behind the Tories. Lib Dems are still favs at 1/3

But Tories have moved out to 4/1
But UKIP has shortened to 5/1

How embarrassing will it be for David Cameron to come third?

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/363209/By-Election.html

IF TORIES WIN EASTLEIGH, LIB DEM / UKIP MONEY BACK

It seems Ladbrokes have great confidence that the Tories won't win in Eastleigh. As they have started advertising bets that if the Tories win they will give you free bets for money placed on the Lib Dems and UKIP.

With Lib Dems being favourites with the bookies. Just what does this mean?

Is it pure free advertisement ?

Or is it showing a lack of support or faith in a Tory win?

http://www.ladbrokes.com/eastleigh/

 1. If the Conservative Party win the Eastleigh by-election (28/02/2013), we will refund losing by-election winner bets, up to £25, in the form of a free bet token.
2. Offer is available to new and existing online and mobile customers. Bets placed in shop or via telephone betting are not eligible for this offer.
3. Offer applies to single bets only. Refund will not apply to any multiple bets.
4. Offer only applies to losing bets placed on the by-election winner market of the Eastleigh by-election (28/02/2013).
5. Qualifying bet must be placed between 8am Wednesday 27th February to 8pm Thursday 28th February.

EASTLEIGH TWITTER FEED

LATEST PREDICTED OUTCOME FOR 2015 UK ELECTION

UK General Election 2015

Predicted outcome:



1 day7 day
Labour Majority43.25%
Hung Parliament35.73%
Conservative Majority20.55%
Other Party Majority0.47%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 13:00:30, Wed 27 February 2013

OPEN FOR COMMENT

I had made it so anonymous comments could not be made. But just so I can get a feel for the environment I have set the blog so it can accept commentary by everyone. Moderation is on and because I work it does mean it might take time for comment to appear. If abused the service will be removed though.

CLEGG MIGHT WANT TO CALL IN SICK.

Having just seen the comments below and latest polling it may well be time for a call to the sick line of Lib Dem HQ and have himself a duvet day.


11% of voters think Clegg has been open over Rennard

The Sun is reporting that a YouGov poll has found only 11 percent of voters think Nick Clegg has been "open and honest" over the Lord Rennard allegations.
Yesterday Liberal Democrat officials met with police to "ascertain if any criminal activity has taken place". Lord Rennard refutes the allegations of impropriety.

WILLIAM HILLS SHARE OF THE VOTE IN EASTLEIGH

  Got this tweet last night

William Hill 4/11 Lib Dems; 11/4 Tories; 7/1 UKIP; 100/1 Labour.

 Now the difference between Ladbrokes and William Hills is that I am going by vote share % from the Ladbrokes site where as the info below is actual bets placed by punters. Now it might be skewed by punters looking for profit so not betting on Lib Dems or they might just think they wont win but thought it made for interesting analysis of money where your mouth is politics.

I think the Labour share is higher because of the 100/1 price as its worth a quid or two just in case. But UKIP is still strong and still nothing really between TORIES / LIB DEM AND UKIP. just lets see if the Lib Dem price falters due to the scandal.


THE LIB DEMS HAVE BEEN BACKED FROM 2/5 TO 4/11 FAVOURITES WITH HILLS TO WIN IN EASTLEIGH. 11/4 TORIES; 7/1 UKIP; 100/1 LABOUR. ‘Eastleigh is likely to be the first by-election to attract an industry-wide six figure betting turnover’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
William Hill.....Distribution of bets for Eastleigh:



Con
30.4%
UKIP
22.5%
Lab
19.7%
LD
25.8%
NHA
1.4%
Other
0.2%

Tuesday 26 February 2013

LATEST LADBROKES VIEW ON EASTLEIGH BY ELECTION

With nearly 10,000 postal votes in there has been little change over the past 24 hours from the betting markets.

The happiest would be UKIP as their share of the vote is predicted higher and they hold firm to 6/1 price of winning. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 24 hours. Then again in the hours upto the Corby count UKIP surged on the betting market only to not do as well as the bookies thought they would.

LATEST

LIB DEM VOTE SHARE 33% DOWN 1%
TORIES 30%
UKIP 24% UP 1%
LABOUR 11%

ODDS ON WINNING



IS THE EASTLEIGH ELECTION IN THE BAG

The post bag that is.

Eastleigh Council say 9,485 postal votes have now been returned, which is about 12 per cent of electorate.

I am not a fan of postal voting as it allows so many forms of fraud to be used. It is so easy for one person or group of people to collect pre signed forms and then tick for the candidate they want.

Why can't you just have people to turn up at a polling station. It saves change of mind and it also prevent (at least lessens it) fraud from happening. It is an unwelcome event of the past few years which could be made worse by online or text voting.

So who has it in the bag? Should help with folks getting a taster before the main count.

EASTLEIGH ELECTION RESULTS BACK TO 1955

May 2010 result LD 24966 C 21102 Lab 5153 UKIP 1933 EDP 249 Ind 154 National Liberal 93
(boundary changes)
May 2005 result LD 19216 C 18648 Lab 10238 UKIP 1669
June 2001 result LD 19360 C 16302 Lab 10426 UKIP 849 Grn 636
May 1997 result LD 19453 C 18699 Lab 14883 Referendum Party 2013 UKIP 446
(boundary changes)
June 1994 by-election LD 24473 Lab 15234 C 13675 UKIP 952 Loony 783 Natural Law Party 145
Apr 1992 result C 38998 LD 21296 Lab 15768
June 1987 result C 35584 Lib/All 22229 Lab 11599
June 1983 result C 32393 Lib/All 19385 Lab 11736
(boundary changes)
May 1979 result C 38516 Lab 18222 Lib 12143
Oct 1974 result C 26869 Lab 19054 Lib 13832
Feb 1974 result C 28512 Lab 18402 Lib 17178
(boundary changes)
June 1970 result C 30300 Lab 22248 Lib 6825
March 1966 result C 24337 Lab 23636 Lib 5617
Oct 1964 result C 23249 Lab 21341 Lib 6685
Oct 1959 result C 24949 Lab 21603
May 1955 result C 20215 Lab 19670

Monday 25 February 2013

UKIP NOW DOWN TO 6/1 TO WIN EASTLEIGH


EASTLEIGH BY ELECTION RESULT ACCORDING TO LADBROKES

You can always find what the market thinks of where they think the parties will finish by looking at the vote share bet market. Now this is before the Clegg debacle fully feeds into the figures but this is how it looks the sweet spots are

LIB DEMS 34%
TORIES 30%
UKIP 23%
LABOUR 11%

Lets see how they change on the run up to Thursday.

You can also have a bet of 4/1 on Clegg being the next minister to leave the government. Now if he did leave just what would happen next?

You can also see that the bookies market are expecting the Lib Dems to lose around half their seats at the next election as the favourite for seats won is the 20-30 seat range.

Not the best week for Lib Dems I wonder what rating MOODYS would give them? F+ ???

Sunday 24 February 2013

CLEGG IS LESS THAN 1% OF THE REASON FOR VOTING LIB DEM

 Only 0.9% of the voters of EASTLEIGH are voting Lib Dem thanks to Cleggs leadership, Cameron only fairs marginally better with 1.9%. UKIP seems to be party over candidate with Labours downfall being the candidate. Maybe if Labour had picked a local councilor rather than a parachuted in wannabe then they could have been in the running.



The Conservative voters is built up as follow: 59.9% decided based on the party, 30.3% on Maria, 8% tactically, 1.9% on Cameron
The LD voters: 68.4% on the party, 20.5% on Thorton, 10.3% tactically, 0.9% on Clegg
The UKIP: 73.4% on the party, 19.2% tactically, 5% on Farage, 2.3% on Diane
Labour: 69.7% on the party, 22.5% tactically, 4.6% on Miliband, 3.2% on O'Farrell
 
 
 
 
 
 
source

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Final-Eastleigh-Report.pdf

FOUR WAY FIGHT FOR MID ULSTER BY ELECTION

The race to succeed Martin McGuinness as MP for the Mid Ulster constituency has been confirmed as a four-way fight.
There were no late entries to the ballot for the by-election before nominations closed late on Thursday.
The four contenders are
Sinn Fein Assembly Member Francie Molloy,
independent Nigel Lutton,
Social Democratic and Labour Party’s Patsy McGlone
Eric Bullick of the cross-community Alliance Party.

SOURCE

LATEST ODDS ARE GOOD FOR UKIP IN EASTLEIGH

Truly shows how Labour should have made a bigger dent but people are moving to UKIP instead.