LATEST EASTLEIGH BY ELECTION OPINION POLL

Click here to view the break down of results

Conservatives 34%  down 6% from 2010 general election result
Liberal Democrats 31% down 16%
Labour 19% up 9%
UKIP 13% up 9%
OTHER 3%

I had thought Labour might just sneak this and there is still plenty of time. Now before someone comments I am not a Labour supporter I am just saying whilst the Tories and Lib Dems take chunks out of each other and both parties get tarred with the I don't like the decision makers brush. With Labour saying how shiny and bright everything would be if only they were still in power.

Then yes I feel Labour might put in a good fight. UKIP at this point should have higher figures but Tories won't want to swap to UKIP if they feel that UKIP can't win and it will let Lib Dems back in or allow Labour to sneak in. A Lib Dem or Labour voter isn't going to be to concerned about Europe in that way so is unlikely to move away from their parties to go to UKIP.

My prediction at present is a very close three way tie with Lib Dems falling at the final fence and photographs at the finish line between Labour and Tories. But then again if I could predict the future I would have made millions from the bookies. As that is not the case I still have my day job.

Click here for my blog post on just how paper thin some support is for parties