Friday 28 February 2014

LATEST YOUGOV POLL 26/27 FEB

Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%; APP -23
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5bcc8xzfz3/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-270214.pdf

LATEST POPULUS POLLING 26/27 FEB

New Populus VI: Lab 38 (+1); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 7 (+1)
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Online-VI-28-02-2014.pdf

Thursday 27 February 2014

MARCH'S POLITICAL POP CHART

A day early in publication, but February is a short month and little is to change and I won't be about to do it on the 1st.

Here is the latest pop chart. BNP slide down the charts which is good to see. UKIP stay top for the 2nd month in a row and Labour go to 2nd, having been 1st for a long period of last year. Liberal Democrats swap places with the SNP and the Conservatives slide further and may well slip below the Green Party if things don't change next month.

Sinn Fein join back in the main rankings. and NHA Party still defy their twitter and Facebook growth. They get people to follow them but not it seems to look at the website. I have said before get yourself a candidate in a by election and people come looking. This has proved the case for much lesser parties like the SDA and the LOONS both of which have seen rises and higher ratings. PLAID CYMRU has also risen up the charts as there have been more local by elections. Also the TUSC has seen a rise as they have competed in them. So NHA party I would suggest get a deposit or two dished out and you may see some activity. 

EACH LINK IS TO ALEXA.COM PAGE ALEXA RANKING EXPLAINED click the link.

Last months rankings in brackets, each link is to the ALEXA page for the party not the parties website

UK RANKING

1 (1) UKIP 3,459
2 (3) LABOUR 4,283
3 (2) BNP 4,886
4 (5) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 8,380
5 (4) SNP 11,401
6 (6) CONSERVATIVES 13,759
7 (4) THE GREEN PARTY 17,693
8 (8) JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS 38,530
9 (10) PIRATE PARTY 51,178
10 (9) SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 106,577
11 (-) SINN FEIN  110,469

GLOBAL RANKING

ENGLISH DEMOCRATS  2,591,459
DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 3,587,355
MEBYON KERNOW 3,851,558
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG 4,913,284
OMRLP 5,519,637
PLAID CYMRU 6,299,224
THE ALLIANCE PARTY  6,709,303
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY  7,917,649
NI21 8,240,958
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE 8,649,696
TUSC 8,687,923
TUV  8,723,495
RESPECT PARTY 9,813,289
NHA PARTY 10,434,882
CHRISTIAN PARTY 13,788,237
NONE OF THE ABOVE 17,697,911
NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY 23,645,702

NO DATA

WESSEX REGIONALISTS 
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF GREAT BRITAIN

 % of traffic from the UK going to the website

GREEN PARTY 97.8%
SNP 95.2%
LIB DEMS 91% 

LABOUR 81.8%
BNP 80.6% 
SSP 77.8%
CONSERVATIVES 72.5%
J4MB 58.5%
UKIP 58.2%
PIRATE PARTY 51.7%
SINN FEIN 33.8%


See previous charts by looking at this link


http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html

Wednesday 26 February 2014

PMQ's 26th FEB 2014

Get Adobe Flash player

LATEST YOUGOV POLLING 24th-25th FEB

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5zoumbcazt/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-250214.pdf

How little changes at a General Election

YEAR OF ELECTION - SEATS CHANGED HANDS - SEATS UP FOR ELECTION % WHICH CHANGED HANDS
  • 1950 -.18 - 640 - 2.8%
  • 1951 - 28 -  625 - 4.4%
  • 1955 - 15 - 630 - 2.4%
  • 1959 - 35 - 630 - 5.5%
  • 1964 - 70 - 630 - 11.1%
  • 1966 - 54 - 630 - 8.6%
  • 1970 - 89 - 630 - 14.1%
  • 1974*.- 29 - 635 - 4.6%
  • 1974*.- 29 - 635 - 4.6%
  • 1979 - 74 - 635 - 11.6%
  • 1983** - 10 - 650 - 1.6%
  • 1987 - 47 - 650 - 7.2%
  • 1992 - 51 - 651 - 7.8%
  • 1997** - 184 - 659 - 27.9%
  • 2001 - 30 - 659 - 4.5%
  • 2005 - 62 - 646 - 9.6%
  • 2010** - 115 - 650 - 17.7%
  • Projected for 2015 194 seats with less than 5% swing needed from 650 so no more than 30% could be less if lower swing.
*1974 had elections in February and October
**Seat change calculated on notional results due to major constituency boundary changes

Tuesday 25 February 2014

LATEST YOUGOV POLL

Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -25
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lw1915u0t7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-240214.pdf

Monday 24 February 2014

LATEST POPULUS ONLINE SURVEY

Lab 37 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 10
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Online_Vote_24-02-2014_BPC.pdf

Sunday 23 February 2014

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE

Just a few thoughts I had today.
It seems all very one sided at the moment. Scotland have decided that they can do better alone. In a marriage I am guessing the grass is always greener scenario, or I earn more money than you and you spend it on things which I wouldn't, could be transposed onto our relationship in the UK.

Bit more complicated as we seem to have a foursome going on. Northern Ireland always been the one that people get on with, but have had another sniffing around, and they have a split as to whether they want to be with us or the other and never really wanted to be on their own.

Wales wants to be on its own, well parts of it has, and Scotland the same. Funny how the parts of the union who wish to be split are predominately Labour. So even though for a great period of time they have had a Labour government they still want from of the union. There has been times when England has voted Conservative but not got a strong Conservative government because of the MPs coming from Wales and Scotland.

So who would gain?

What happens if Scotland get what they want much like itchy feet partners but then find they miss us? Would we take them back.

Why do we not get a say in this?

Will be interesting to see how this plays out

YOUGOV POLLING 20th-21st FEB

Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%; APP -27
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/7ievwsmlza/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140221.pdf

Saturday 22 February 2014

EU to Spend $3million on internet trolls

This was found here http://rt.com/news/eu-trolls-election-monitoring-348/

The EU will spend more than $3 million on ‘troll monitors’ to trawl Eurosceptic debates on the internet ahead of European elections in June 2014, UK media reports. It comes amid fears that hostility against the EU is growing.
The new strategy will include “public opinion monitoring” to “identify at an early stage whether debates of a political nature among followers in social media and blogs have the potential to attract media and citizens’ interest,” according to internal documents reportedly discovered by the Telegraph.
Spending on “qualitative media analysis” will be increased by more than $2.6 million. Most of the money will be found in existing budgets, although an additional $1.2 million will be needed.
"Particular attention needs to be paid to the countries that have experienced a surge in Euroscepticism," a confidential document said.
The monitors’ roles are clearly laid out in the documents. The controversial plan is designed to promote a stronger Europe, while engaging in conversation with those who hold an anti-EU sentiment.
"Parliament's institutional communicators must have the ability to monitor public conversation and sentiment on the ground and in real time, to understand 'trending topics' and have the capacity to react quickly, in a targeted and relevant manner, to join in and influence the conversation, for example, by providing facts and figures to deconstructing myths."
"In order to reverse the perception that 'Europe is the problem', we need to communicate that the answer to existing challenges… is 'more Europe' – not 'less Europe'."
But the EU is facing an uphill battle, as it seeks to change the minds of those who associate the bloc with economic crisis and high rates of unemployment.
“It is evident that the EU’s image is suffering,” the document said.
The information has been met with disapproval by many, who say the strategy is a waste of time.
“Spending over a million pounds ($1.5 million) for EU public servants to become Twitter trolls in office hours is wasteful and truly ridiculous,” UK Independent Party Deputy Leader Paul Nuttall told the Telegraph.
Training for the so-called “Twitter trolls” is set to take place later this month.
The news comes as Eurosceptic moods continue to gain momentum in the union.
UK Prime Minister David Cameron has pledged to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s EU membership.
Without reform, “Europe will fail and Britain will drift to the exit,” the leader said in a January speech.
Cameron has been dubbed a “trendsetter” by Conservative MP David Campbell Bannerman, who believes many other countries are seeking more flexibility within the EU.
But it’s not just governments looking for a bit more leeway when it comes to EU membership – individual workers in crisis-hit countries are unhappy with the bloc’s leadership and austerity measures, too.
Last Wednesday, anti-austerity protesters in Athens broke into a government building and threatened the labor minister. Riot police then responded with tear gas, batons, and pepper spray.
Even German citizens have expressed interest in leaving the EU – despite German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ongoing support of EU policy.
Last September, a poll conducted by the Bertelsmann Foundation showed that 49 per cent of Germans believed things would be improved by leaving the European Union.
And the Germans aren’t alone – 34 per cent of French citizens also said they would be better off without the EU.

THANKS FOR READING THIS, YOU MAY ALSO BE INTERESTED IN MARCH POLITICAL POP CHART (click the link)

LATEST POPULUS POLLING

 Lab 38 Con 32 LD 9 UKIP 13
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Online_VI_21-02-2014_BPC.pdf

Friday 21 February 2014

Is this what is really hurting the Liberal Democrats?

I have done a series of tweets below, and it seems the LIB DEM spirit is strong for those that remain, it just seems they have lost so many. But not only that people want a LIB DEM society yet won't vote for it, it seems because of no real leadership.

What are your thoughts?


http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/qqm6taeabj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-200214.pdf

LATEST POLITICAL BETTING





Thursday 20 February 2014

LATEST SURVATION SCOTLAND INDY POLL

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Scotland-Issues-Poll-Report.pdf

EUROPEAN ELECTION PREDICTION

Latest Poll(s) Predictions 10.02.2014

Party - European party - poll - predicted seats- (diff from 2009)

Labour Party S&D  32% 29 (+16)
UK Independence Party EFD  26% 18 (+5)
Conservative Party ECR  23% 15 (-10)
Liberal Democrat Party ALDE/ADLE  9% 4 (-7)
Green Party Greens/EFA  5% 0 (-2)
Scottish National Party Greens/EFA  0% 3 (-1)
Sinn Féin GUE-NGL  0% 1
Plaid Cymru - Parti of Wales Greens/EFA  0% 1
Democratic Unionist Party NI  0% 1
Ulster Unionist Party ECR  0% 1
BNP (-2)

See more at: http://www.pollwatch2014.eu/#country

Wednesday 19 February 2014

What do you think of your party leader?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ptj7u6qool/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-180214.pdf

Tuesday 18 February 2014

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 17th February

Con 33%, Lab 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5ijj3746it/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170214.pdf

Monday 17 February 2014

Latest Wales Barometer opinion poll

The first data from the latest Wales Barometer opinion poll shows UKIP now in second place for the European Election in May. A big increase in the party's support since the last poll in December means it has overtaken the Conservatives. Labour are still well ahead.
  • Labour 39% (41% in December)
  • UKIP 18% (13% in December)
  • Conservatives 17% (20% in December)
  • Plaid Cymru 12% (13% in December)
  • Liberal Democrats 7% (9% in December)
  • Others 7% (4% in December)
Wales has four seats in the European Parliament. At the last election, in 2009, UKIP won a Welsh seat for the first time, with 13% support. The Conservatives, with 21%, Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 19%. each also won a single seat.
If the latest opinion poll figures are repeated on election day, Labour would win the first two seats, UKIP the third seat and the Conservatives the fourth. Plaid Cymru would be without an MEP for the first time since the present voting system was introduced in 1999.

 The latest Wales Barometer opinion poll, carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University is published today. Polling of a representative sample of 1250 people took place 10-12 February 2014.

SOURCE

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2014-02-17/ukip-leap-to-second-place/

Sunday 16 February 2014

COMRES POLLING 16TH FEB

Voting intention
Con      32% (+2)
Lab       37% (+2)
LD        9% (+1)
UKIP     15% (-4)
Other    7% (-1)

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_16th_February_2014.pdf

UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:




1 day7 day
Hung Parliament40.25%
Labour Majority37.53%
Conservative Majority21.70%
Other Party Majority0.53%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 22:00:29, Sun 16 February 2014

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

THE RUFUS HOUND EFFECT ON POLITICS

The Rufus Hound effect, now we have had celebrities in the past from acting to sport become MPs such as Lord Coe and Glenda Jackson. But with the Don't knows and the won't votes so high at the moment and especially amongst the young. Will celebrity endorsements be even more needed by political party's?

As you can see from this months POLITICAL PARTY CYBER WARRIORS Rufus Hounds endorsement of the NHA PARTY saw them gain more followers than the main three party's put together.

Who will be next to endorse a party and what effect will it have?

FEBRUARYS POLITICAL PARTY CYBER WARRIORS

Well I not sure what sort of promotion the NHA Party have had but it certainenly worked, they may not have stood in the Wythenshawe by election but maybe Rufus Hound coming out in support of them helped as they gained more Twitter followers than Labour, Conservatives & Liberal Democrats put together.

When it comes to Facebook NHA PARTY have bucked the trend of a lot of party's this past few months, of doing well on Twitter and doing well on Facebook at the same time. But UKIP with the push from the by election I guess trumped everyone by being the biggest gainers on Facebook this past month.

TWITTER

as of February 16th 10.33am

PARTY / FEBRUARY'S FOLLOWERS / JANUARY'S FOLLOWERS / DIFFERENCE +/-
  
@UKLabour 123,009 / 118,891 / 4,118
103,387 / 100,930 / 2,457
57,565 / 55,555 / 2,010
47,274 / 46,510 / 764
37,483 / 35,767 / 1.716
36,175 / 27,256 / 8,919
28,062 / 26,668 / 1,394
13,746 / 13,618 / 128
8,730 / 8,453 / 277
8,577 / 8,271 / 306
6,666 / 6,566 / 100
5,301 / 5,241 / 60
5,221 / 4,947 / 274
3,094 / 3,026 / 68
2,548 / 2,493 / 55
2,266 / 2,100 / 166
2,082 / 1,896 / 186
1,655 / 1,629 / 26

BIGGEST GAINERS 

NHA PARTY 8,919
Labour 4,118
Conservatives 2,457
Liberal Democrats 2,010
UKIP 1,716

FACEBOOK LIKES (when over 100,000 it is stated in thousands  1k)

PARTY / FEBRUARY'S LIKES / JANUARY'S LIKES / DIFFERENCE +/-

CONSERVATIVES  165K / 163K / 2K
LABOUR 158K / 156K / 2K
BNP 99,863 / 98,182 / 1,681
LIB DEMS 92,305 / 91,765 / 540
UKIP 60,846 / 57,382 / 3,464
SNP 32,791 / 31,233 / 1,558
THE GREEN PARTY 25,674 / 24,594 / 1,080
LOONY PARTY 11,908 / 11,9,18 / -10
PIRATE PARTY UK  8,764 / 8,715 / 49
PLAID CYMRU 8,208 / 7,956 / 252
NHA PARTY 8,103 / 5,382 / 2,721
RESPECT PARTY 1,283 / 1,266 / 17
MEBYON KERNOW 762 / 676 / 86

BIGGEST GAINERS 

UKIP 3,464
NHA PARTY 2,721
CONSERVATIVES 2K
LABOUR 2K
BNP 1,681
SNP 1,558

You can see past political charts by following the link

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html

Saturday 15 February 2014

Votes gained or lost since 2010 in By Elections

DoktorB has found this interesting set of numbers.

In those constituencies where byelections have been held since 2010, principle party vote changes are:

Conservative down 105,498 or 63.4%
Labour down 87,101 or 31.5%
LibDem down 90,374 or 66.0%

UKIP up 29,718 or, 187.6%
Greens up 399, or 9%

BNP down 16,110 or 66.2%

Respect, btw, are up 19,491 votes almost entirely due to George Galloway, an improvement on 2010 by some 1,285%, if such things have been calculated properly.

Friday 14 February 2014

POPULUS ONLINE POLLING 12th-13th FEB

Lab 38 (+2); Cons 32 (-2); LD 9 (-2); UKIP 14 (+2); Oth 8 (=)
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Online_VI_14-02-2014_BPC.pdf

DOES THE BBC HAVE IT IN FOR THE LOONY PARTY?

Here is a link to a  SCREEN SHOT

And here is a twitter discussion between a BBC reporter and the Loony party LINK

Now I know that the loony party is in part just for fun, but still the BBC have to ensure they report the facts, if they do this to one party, just what else are they getting wrong or showing bias towards.

Wythenshawe & Sale East By election result  <<<<<<<< This link has the full result and some interesting stats.

THE MISSING 88 LOONY VOTERS