Friday, 4 April 2014

LABOURS COUNCIL BY ELECTION PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS YEAR Here is a link to my council by elections blog, where you can find all the results and information for past council by elections. It has been set up from August last year and has information split by date, council and party gains.

Thanks to MiddleEnglander for another collation of information.

there were 43 by-elections in January to March 2014, with Labour retaining 12 seats whilst gaining 2 - 1 from Conservative and 1 from Liberal Democrat - whilst losing 2 to the Conservatives.  Labour did not contest 6 of the seats with 2 it contested being in Scotland and 1 in Wales which do not have annual elections on 22nd May.

This thread starts by examining the 34 English contests where Labour had a candidate during the first 3 months of 2014. It attempts to highlight any patterns that are apparent is a disparate set of results.

Labour polled less than 15% in 9 of the by-elections
- ranging from 2.9% in Ashford BC, Wye to 10.7% in Hampshire CC, Petersfield Butser
* Labour came 4th or 5th in all the nine seats
* four seats had the previous election in 2013; Labour share up 1% in one, down 1%, 5% and ~10% in the others
* five seats last fought in 2011 with Labour then not contesting one; share fell in remaining four by 4%, 5% and 8% (x2)

Labour polled between 15% and 30% in 11 of the by-elections
- ranging from 16.7% in East Hants DC, Petersfield Bell Hill to 28.6% in Tendring DC, St John's
* Labour came second in 8 of the by-elections, one a straight fight with a  Conservative, and third in the other 3 with one having just 3 candidates
* 10 were in seats with last election in 2011 when Labour did not contest two; share rose in 3 by 1%, 2% & 4%, falling in 5 by 2%, 3%(x2), 4% & 14%
- Conservative to Labour swing of 2% / 3% in two seats, Labour to Conservative swing of 3% in one
* remaining seat Runnymede BC, Chertsey Meads had annual elections in 2012 and by-election September 2012
- Labour share up 9% against May 2012 with 8½% swing from Conservative, share down ½% since by-election with ~1% swing to Conservative

Labour polled between 30% and 46% in 7 of the by-elections
- ranging from 32.6% in Gedling BC, Gedling to 45.1% in Salford MB, Swinton South
* Conservative gained Birmingham MB, Kingstanding from Labour on 7% swing since 2012 and 4% since 2011
* Conservative gained Bury MB, Ramsbottom from Labour on 12% swing since 2012 and 6% since 2011
* Labour gained Gedling BC, Gedling from Liberal Democrats on a very small swing from Labour since 2011
* Labour gained Trafford MB, Broadheath from Conservative on ~2% swing to Conservative since 2012 but 3% to Labour since 2011
* Labour retained remaining 3 seats with Conservative in second
- swing ~3% to Labour in both Dartford BC, Stone & Nottingham UA, Clifton North since 2011 and ~2% to Conservative in Salford MB, Swinton South since 2011 & 2012

Labour polled over 46% in the remaining 7 by-elections which were retained
- ranging from 48.1% in Sunderland MB, St Anne's to 72.5% in Luton UA, Farley
* UKIP second in all 5 seats with a candidate, 3 not previously contested: Labour share fell by 3%, 7%, 10% & 24% in 4 rising by 17% in 5th
- ~6% swing UKIP to Labour in Luton UA, Farley since 2011, ~7% Labour to UKIP Sheffield MB, Arbourthorne since 2012
* Conservative second in Amber Valley BC, Heanor East on a 1% swing to Conservative since 2012
* Independent second in Knowsley MB, Longview as Labour share fell from 90%+ in 2011 and 2012 to 65% in by-election

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