Saturday 21 March 2015

Labour forecast (by UK Elect) to fall short of overall majority by 3 Welsh Assembly

UK-Elect Welsh Assembly Forecast, March 20th 2015.

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 3

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Welsh Assembly Election. It predicts Labour to fall 3 seats short of a majority due to significant gains by UKIP - and it forecasts that the Green Party will also enter the Welsh Assembly.
This forecast was created on March 20th 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Welsh Assembly Election.Other recent forecasts include the Scottish Parliament Forecast (March 17th 2015) and the UK General Election Forecast (March 13th 2015).
The percentages used for this forecast were: Constituency Vote: Lab 36% Con 22%, Plaid Cymru 20%, UKIP 11%,Lib Dem 6%, Green 4%. Regional member vote: Lab 33%, Con 22%, Plaid Cymru 16%, UKIP 18%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
Party Overall Seats Change
Labour 28 -2
Conservative 13 -1
Plaid Cymru 11 -
UKIP 5 +5
Liberal Democrat 2 -3
Green 1 +1
Overall - Labour Short By 3
Party AMS Change
Conservative 7 -1
Plaid Cymru 5 -1
UKIP 5 +5
Labour 2 -
Green 1 +1
Liberal Democrat 0 -4
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 5, Green Gain 1, Lib Dem lose 4
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 1st Place) Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 2nd Place)
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, Coloured By Percentage Lead) Forecast for Wales (Votes and Seats Piecharts)
Forecast for Wales (Regions) Forecast for Wales (Regions, 2nd Place)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Welsh Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v9.3 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Welsh Assembly elections, and which produced particularly interesting results in this case due to the exact workings of the d'Hondt calculations. Tactical voting was set to 5% (but actually had little effect in this case). Additional incumbency support was disabled because the UK-Elect v9.3 method includes some built-in incumbency support. (Had it been enabled then the only difference would have been that Cardiff Central would have been predicted to be won by Labour, rather than very narrowly lost to the Liberal Democrats.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the current situation (includes Ynys Mon by-election).
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

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