Electoral Calculus Live #GE2015 PREDICTION

Live Prediction: Labour short 43 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.8%	279
LAB	29.7%	258	32.3%	283
LIB	23.6%	57	9.5%	17
UKIP	3.2%	0	13.7%	1
Green	1.0%	1	5.1%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	3.8%	48
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.2%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 30 Mar 2015, sampling 16,199 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority	25%
Conservative majority	17%
Lab/Nat coalition	15%
Con/Nat coalition	12%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	11%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	10%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	8%
No overall control	2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

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