Latest #GE2015 Forecast by Elections ETC

The Tories have pulled level with Labour, gaining a point in our polling average to make it 33%-33%.
That makes them firmer favourites to win the most votes in two months’ time, with a 74% chance to Labour’s 26%. We now also make them slight favourites to win the most seats, with a 55% chance – up from 48% last week.
Their chances of winning a majority, though, remain slim: our model gives them a 10% chance of doing so. Labour’s chances are even slimmer, down to just 4%.
That leaves an 86% chance of a hung parliament, and Ed Miliband’s clear advantage in government formation (last week we gave him a 52% chance of being able to put together a majority, at least for a confidence motion, to David Cameron’s 35%) has eroded.
Our model now suggests a 45% chance that a Labour-led alliance would have a majority – just slightly more than the 41% chance of a Conservative-led government doing so. In the remaining 14% of cases, it would essentially depend on the SNP.

Date of forecast: 6 March 2015
Days till the election: 62
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 33%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 14%
Others: 12%
Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.4% (30% – 39%)
Lab: 31.5% (27% – 36%)
LD: 10.1% (6% – 14%)
UKIP: 12.9% (9% – 17%)
Others: 11.1% (9% – 13%)
Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 43% (39% – 48%)
Labour: 30% (26% – 35%)
Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 286 (240 – 335)
Lab: 278 (231 – 321)
LD: 22 (13 – 34)
SNP: 40 (27 – 50)
PC: 3
UKIP: 3
Grn: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities. Prediction intervals not yet available for UKIP, PC and Grn.)
Central forecast: Con short of a majority by 37
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 55%
Lab largest: 45%
Hung Parliament: 86%
… with Con largest: 45%
… with Lab largest: 41%
Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
(See here for explanations and assumptions)
Con majority: 10%
Con+DUP: 6%
Con+LD: 13%
Con+LD+DUP: 12%
Con largest, SNP kingmakers or wreckers: 14%
Lab majority: 4%
Lab+DUP: 5%
Lab+LD: 14%
Lab+LD+DUP: 10%
Lab+LD+DUP+SDLP+PC+Grn+Hermon: 8%
Lab+SNP: 4%
(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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