Latest Live prediction from Electoral Calculus

Live Prediction: Labour short 32 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.5%	275
LAB	29.7%	258	33.7%	294
LIB	23.6%	57	7.9%	12
UKIP	3.2%	0	14.7%	1
Green	1.0%	1	4.9%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	3.7%	46
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.0%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 21 Mar 2015, sampling 12,516 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority	34%
Lab/Nat coalition	16%
Conservative majority	14%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	13%
Con/Nat coalition	10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	9%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	4%
No overall control	1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.