Our model combines data provided by
YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the
UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by
Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 31 March 2015. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts,
follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at
feedback@electionforecast.co.uk
When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model
may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do.
The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have
changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic
and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft
constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data
for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level
polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by
constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris
Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what
the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in
the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling
data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these
aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across
parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think
of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect
from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit
of polling data.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for
each of the parties, including only those seats for which the
probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the
table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales.
Please
note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast
table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
| England |
277 |
232 |
21 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Scotland |
3 |
13 |
2 |
41 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Wales |
7 |
30 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
The following table provides the individual seat predictions
(columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general
election (rows).
Please
note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast
table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
| 2010 Con |
272 |
33 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| 2010 Lab |
1 |
230 |
0 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 LD |
14 |
10 |
25 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 SNP |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 PC |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 GRN |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 UKIP |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 Oth |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
How can your forecast ignore the seats in Northern Ireland and be so negative for UKIP! My prediction is that this will - with the fewer Lib-Dem seats be decisive for a Conservative led government of 330 seats.
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