GE2015 Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Labour short 27 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	32.6%	266
LAB	29.7%	258	33.6%	299
LIB	23.6%	57	8.2%	16
UKIP	3.2%	0	14.2%	1
Green	1.0%	1	6.3%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	3.7%	46
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	0.8%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Feb 2015 to 08 Mar 2015, sampling 10,994 people. 

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority	33%
Lab/Nat coalition	16%
Conservative majority	14%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	12%
Con/Nat coalition	10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	9%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	5%
No overall control	1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

Source >>>  http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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