Monday 25 November 2013

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 7th Nov - 21st Nov

Unlike all the major pollsters this review of actual voting shows not such a wild swing to Labour nearly 30,000 votes cast and spread across 19 various wards. It only shows a 3.1% swing to Labour. With the Liberal Democrats actually taking Kirklees (golcar) from Labour and if the candidate in Scarboro hadn't withdrawn these percentages could have been even less fluctuating. Labours upward percentage may have been wiped out with liberal Democrats not losing as much.

UKIP yet again become the biggest gainers with double digit rises. Doing well by coming 2nd to Labour and doing strong again with Conservative wards.

7th November 2013  10 by elections
14th November 2013  4 by elections
21st November 2013  5 by elections

When these by elections were last all held 50,363 votes were cast

Labour 17,053 votes 33.9%
Conservatives 12,626 votes 25.1%
Liberal Democrats 6,903 votes 13.7%
Others 5,263 votes 10.5%
Independents 5,040 votes 10%
Green Party 1,844 votes 3.6%
UKIP 1,634 votes 3.2%

When the same wards held by elections between 7th Nov - 21st November 2013
29,367 votes were cast.

Labour 10,559 votes 35.9%
Conservatives 6,095 votes 20.8%
UKIP 4,098 votes 14%
Liberal Democrats 2,998 votes 10.2%
Others 2,727 votes 9.3%
Independents 2,130 votes 7.2%
Green Party 760 votes 2.6%

DIFFERENCE

LAB +2% CON -4.3% UKIP +10.8% LD -3.5% OTH -1.2% IND -2.8% GREEN -1%

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