A good sign for Labour

Here's some comparisons between the crop of by-elections this parliament and past parliaments

2010 - 2015: Lab 53% Con 14% Lib Dems 9% run up to 2015 General Election
2005 - 2010: Lab 32% Con 25% Lib Dems 16%
2001 - 2005: Lab 33% Con 19% Lib Dems 34%
1997 - 2001: Lab 38% Con 27% Lib Dems 19%
1992 - 1997: Lab 51% Con 16% Lib Dems 21%  run up to Blair landslide
1987 - 1992: Lab 43% Con 23% Lib Dems 18%
1983 - 1987: Lab 31% Con 29% Alliance 38%
1979 - 1983: Lab 37% Con 27% Alliance 38%

So unless Miliband completely mucks up he seems to be riding the same wave which Blair rode into a General Election. For the Lib Dems though it looks bleak as they have their lowest by election polling for over 30 years. The added unknown is how much of a difference UKIP will make.

Here is some analysis from by elections to the end of 2012 from the current parliament.

Labour 82,133 votes (49.08% +3.11% on 2010) winning 6 seats (unchanged)
Conservatives 23,192 votes (13.86% -11.93% on 2010) winning 0 seats (-1)
Respect-The Unity Coalition 21,008 votes (12.55% +12.05% on 2010) winning 1 seat (+1)
United Kingdom Independence Party 16,159 votes (9.65% +7.36% on 2010) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 9,932 votes (5.93% -11.61% on 2010) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Other Parties (who polled less than 5% of the total) 11,989 votes (7.17% -0.71% on 2010) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Turnout: 31.36% (-26.57%)

Headline Swing: 7.52% from Con to Lab

I can not take praise for the figures they are from Harry Hayfield @HarryHayfield He does not endorse this blog I simply borrowed his figures to highlight how the Labour party seem to be following the same trend as they did before 1997.