My Southshields Prediction as of today

If you don't want to read my thoughts my predictions are at the bottom of the article. just scroll down.

I mention as of today in the headline due to the variables which lay ahead. The dates not been set, the candidates are not known yet, a months worth of muck raking is to be done and finally just who knows what will happen in the news.

A lot is being said about the by election date if it is May2nd there is no council elections in the area so people will be coming out just for the by election and will be swept along with the news hysteria concerning the elections. Bound to be a lot of pro Labour, A lot of UKIP but nothing proven and a lot of downers on the Conservative/LibDem coalition so total collapse for them.

Now if it is May 9th or later would this change the schematics, for postal voting probably not. Eastleigh was already in the postal bag for the Lib Dems even though it was conceded UKIP won the vote on the day. Southshields has the 5th highest amount of postal voters in the UK. Something of which Mr Monkey has claimed Labour fiddled. But what if UKIP gain 200 council seats on May2nd? What if all the news is about how well UKIP did and Labour did well but not brilliantly. Would a Southshields voter much like a fickle football fan, think UKIP might just do well here?  If others vote for them so can I. No one likes to be the first they love to be the one behind the person charging the barricades.

A lot of what if's, if I have a go on the lottery I might win. So UKIP put up a candidate they might win because they have a ticket but they have roughly the same odds winning Southshields as they do walking away millionaires. But bookies are always tight so current price range is 10/1 to 16/1

Candidates

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
David Miliband	Labour	18,995	52.0	-8.8
Karen Allen	Conservative	7,886	21.6	+4.0
Stephen Psallidas	Liberal Democrat	5,189	14.2	-5.0
Donna Watson	British National Party	2,382	6.5	+6.5
Shirley Ford	Green	762	2.1	+2.1
Siamak Kaikavoosi	Independent	729	2.0	+2.0
Victor Thompson	Independent	316	0.9	+0.9
Sam Navabi	Independent	168	0.5	+0.5
Roger Nettleship	Fight for an Anti-War Government	91	0.2	+0.2
Majority		11,109	30.4
Turnout		36,518	57.7	+7.0

Here is the 2010 result its been suggested that Labour will do as they did in the recent Middlesbrough election and gain back ground and raise their share of the vote. But the difference being is the MP for Middlesbrough died and was muched liked he hadn't just resigned half way thru a parliament to get a job which paid four times as much money. This is a big point for all others parties to play on.

General Election 2005: South Shields
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	David Miliband	18,269	60.5	−2.7
	Liberal Democrat	Stephen Psallidas	5,957	19.7	+2.9
	Conservative	Richard Lewis	5,207	17.2	+0.3
	Independent	Nader Afshari-Naderi	773	2.6	N/A
Majority			12,312	40.8
Turnout			30,206	42.2	−7.5
	Labour hold		Swing	−2.8

In 2005 you will see a split of how the area was Mr Miliband still no where near the heights of his predecessor who got 70% but then Labour are no where near as popular as the Blair bandwagon days and Miliband has done a runner.

By elections never get the same support as general elections as they feel disconnected I am not picking the government I am just picking a replacement part of the regime. So you can see half the numbers for near enough everyone.

So to my current prediction. Labour will get half its normal vote tops. So nothing more than 9,000 UKIP will get half the BNP vote cast 1,150 then round down 1,000 as if the BNP do stand they will more than likely get the BNP till I die brigade.
TORY vote will collapse been shown to do so in Middlesbrough and this is one thing you can transfer across. half of the 2010 vote is 4,000 now 1 in 5 are moving to UKIP you can push that upto 1 in 4 in such a UKIP are coming style of campaign this should be. So thats 1,000 votes to UKIP on that basis 1,000 will vote TORY at a push because that's what they have always done. its the 2,000 who want to vote but don't know who to do so. They have voted TORY so would not want to change to a polar opposite of Labour readily but would have fell out with TORIES. Now these will be open to independents as they won't want Labour, might not agree with UKIP ideology but want to vote as its a right not to be sacrificed. so 500 go off and gets split between independents 500 would bite bullet and vote UKIP 1,000 would join the other non voting TORIES.

Lib Dems will have the same fate as the TORIES you sip from the devils cup you have the same poison. Now this is the least likely group to join UKIP they are europhiles they follow a europhile party so I think any libdem which votes UKIP will be balanced out by the LIBDEM going to vote LABOUR and that Labour voter going to vote UKIP. So all things become equal. A 1,000 votes at best and the rest stay at home or go back to Labour or independents so adding another 500 to the independent pool of votes.

In conclusion

Labour 9,000 - 61%
UKIP 2.500 - 17%
TORIES 1,000 - 7%
LIB DEMS 1,000 - 7%
INDEPENDENTS 1,000 - 7%
BNP 150 - 1%

Now this I feel is the highest water mark Labour, Tories & Lib Dems can gain. UKIP are at their low to mid range in my opinion.

The best sort of result for UKIP would be as follows infighting with Labour and strong independent takes votes from them. It is set after May 2nd and people see that UKIP can win with the press media talking up 200 plus council seat gains. So the TORIES who would have stayed away turn UKIP and Labour voters lose more to UKIP than they gain from LIB DEMS and lose voters to independents and because its a closer race UKIP gain more from that effect as well.

Then the result might be

Labour 6,000 - 41%
UKIP 5,000 - 34%
INDEPENDENTS 3,000 - 21%
TORIES 300 - 2%
LIBDEMS 300 - 2%

So even with a perfect scenario for UKIP, Labour still win. But this is what we know now and guessing on the variables of past elections.

Your thoughts would be welcome.