Will UKIP membership overtake LIBDEMS in 2014?

 UKIP state they have had a record year for 2013 seeing an increase of over 13,000 new members to about 32,500. The main three parties have seen a steep decline in membership.

Party membership of the three largest Westminster parties

• 1951 Conservative 2.9 million - Labour 876,000
• 1981 Conservative 1.2 million - Labour 277,000
• 2001 Conservative 311,000 - Labour 272,000 - Lib Dem 73,000
• 2012-13 Conservative 134,000 - Labour 187,000 - Lib Dems - 42,000 

So will UKIP now on 32,500 and LibDems having seen a decline of 40% swap places?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25562198

SCOTSMAN POLL GIVES SNP 8PT LEAD

 The Panelbase poll was conducted among 1,012 adults in Scotland between 13-20 December
The results are:
Scottish Parliament constituency vote:
SNP: 40%
Labour: 32%
Conservative: 15%
Lib Dem: 5%
Other: 8%
Regional List vote:
SNP: 40%
Labour: 31%
Conservative: 14%
Lib Dem: 5%
Green: 5%
Other: 5%

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/panelbase-poll-shows-snp-8-points-ahead-of-labour-1-3251567

RIP John Fortune

John Fortune, the British comedian and satirist who found fame through his TV collaborations with John Bird and Rory Bremner, has died aged 74. He died peacefully on Tuesday with his wife Emma and dog Grizelle at his bedside, his agent Vivienne Clore said. Born in 1939, he was educated in Bristol before going on to Cambridge where he met fellow satirist Bird. A founding member of Peter Cook's Establishment Club, Fortune shared a Bafta with Bird in 1997. The award, for Best Light Entertainment Performance, came for their work on Channel 4's Rory Bremner, Who Else? programme.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25559826

7 CANDIDATES FOR COWDENBEATH MSP BY ELECTION

Denise Baykal - UKIP
Dave Dempsey - CONSERVATIVES
Stuart Graham - THE VICTIMS FINAL RIGHTS
Jade Holden - LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
Natalie McGarry - SNP
Alex Rowley - LABOUR
James Trolland - SDA

To be held on the 23rd Jan 2014

Scottish Parliament Election result, 2011

Scottish Parliament election, 2011: Cowdenbeath
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Helen Eadie	11,926	46.5	+3.4
	SNP	Ian Chisholm	10,679	41.6	+13.1
	Conservative	Belinda Don	1,792	7.0	-7.2
	Liberal Democrats	Keith Legg	997	3.9	-10.3
	Land Party	Mick Heenan	276	1.1	n/a
Majority			1,247	4.9
Turnout			25,670	46.9
	Labour hold		Swing	-4.8%

CLASS WAR PARTY

There is a class war waging and we are losing it. The rich are getting richer and the gilded elite who have ruled us since Norman times remain in power and dominate land ownership just as they did when they first robbed it. We live in a feudal society dominated by an oligarchy of privately and Oxbridge educated toffs who run not just the government, banks, diplomacy but the media, music. comedy and even the opposition. We see no difference between any of the parties – we oppose Tristram Hunt with the same venom we hate Zac Goldsmith. . We don’t want to kick the tories out to replace them with Labour or any variety of failed Trots. We don’t want to kick them out at all – we want to kick them in!

Started in 1982 CLASS WAR was first a combative, funny, populist anarchist newspaper then mutated into a similar political organisation. We are proud of our past. But 30 years later the same approaches do not work. Endless photos of overseas riots and balaclaved anarchists bring no movement here. The same old same old is getting us nowhere. Time to think and do the unthinkable, to cross the Rubicon.
We are standing Class War candidates in the general election on May 7th 2015. We are doing this to launch a furious and co-ordinated political offensive against the ruling class with the opportunity an election gives us to talk politics to our class. We in no way see the election as an alternative to direct action. By the brick and the ballot.
We are not talking community politics here. It’s too late for a patient slowbuild like the IWCA. The ruling class have us by the throat -they need a short sharp kick in the bollocks. Our election campaign will use any means necessary. we won’t be ushered away by PR minders – we will make ourselves central to the campaign in a funny, rumbustious combative and imaginative way. We will be on the streets and in their faces.
Comrades whatever our yesterdays you are welcome now. join in. reject cynicism. have fun.
FULL STEAM AHEAD THROUGH THE SHIT

List of candidates so far - 14

Bermondsey & Old Southwark - Ian Bone

Chingford & Woodford Green - Janice Dick

Croydon South - Jon Bigger

Darlington - Joy Bahn

Hackney North & South Newington - Tim Wells

Hackney South & Shoreditch -  Cormac Mackervaie

Hornsey & Wood Green - Mark Richmond

Islington North - Peter Farrell

Lichfield - Andy Bennett

Maidenhead - Joe Wilcox

Norwich North - Victor Koenick

Norwich South - Stan Cullen

Sherwood - Dave Perkins

Witney - Warren Draper

  

http://ianbone.wordpress.com/ 

New address now up and running and ready to receive ideas, fighting fund donations, offers of help, etc etc
CLASS WAR
SUITE 34
67-68 HATTON GARDEN
LONDON EC1 8JY
Website up soon where you can donate online

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 5th-19th DEC

5th December 2013  8 by elections
12th December 2013  3 by elections
19th December 2013  8 of 9 by elections

Over the past three weeks 20 council by elections have occurred here is the results from 19. We have not got the info for one as they have not split down the votes into first preference.

Past three weeks 24,748 votes were cast as followed.

Labour 8,954 votes 36.2%
Conservatives 4,718 votes 19.1%
UKIP 3,936 votes 15.9%
Liberal Democrats 2,181 votes 8.8%
Independents 1,473 votes 5.8%
Others 1,157 votes 4.7%
SNP 1,086 votes 4.4%
Plaid Cymru 786 votes 3.2%
Green Party 493 votes 1.9%

When these by elections were last held 37,011 votes were cast.

Labour 13,547 votes 36.6%
Conservatives 9,769 votes 26.4%
Liberal Democrats 4,188 votes 11.3%
Independents 2,219 votes 6%
Others 1,956 votes 5.3%
UKIP 1,552 votes 4.2%
Plaid Cymru 1,403 votes 3.8%
SNP 1,251 votes 3.4%
Green Party 1,126 votes 3%

DIFFERENCE

CON -7.3% LAB -0.4% UKIP +11.7% LD -2.5% IND -0.2% OTH -0.6% SNP +1% PLAID -0.6% GREENS -1.1%

JUST 500 DAYS TO GO

#UKGENERALELECTION2015 500 DAYS TO GO
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 23, 2013

OPINION POLLS vs ACTUAL POLLS.

Last Gallup poll of each Parliament compared with the actual GB general election shares of the vote:

1945
Gallup: Lab 47, Con 41, Lib 10
Actual: Lab 48.8, Con 39.3, Lib 9.2

1950
Gallup: Lab 45, Con 43.5, Lib 10.5
Actual: Lab 46, Con 42.9, Lib 9.3

1951
Gallup: Con 49.5, Lab 47, Lib 3
Actual: Lab 49.4, Con 47.8, Lib 2.6

1955
Gallup: Con 51, Lab 47.5, Lib 1.5
Actual: Con 49.2, Lab 47.4, Lib 2.8

1959
Gallup: Con 48, Lab 46, Lib 5
Actual: Con 48.8, Lab 46.6, Lib 6

1964
Gallup: Lab 46, Con 44.5, Lib 9
Actual: Lab 44.8, Con 42.9, Lib 11.4

1966
Gallup: Lab 51, Con 40, Lib 8
Actual: Lab 48.7, Con 40, Lib 8.6

1970
Gallup: Lab 49, Con 42, L 7.5
Actual: Con 46.2, Lab 43.8, L 7.6

Feb 1974
Gallup: Con 39.5, Lab 37.5, L 20.5
Actual: Con 38.6, Lab 38, L 19.8

Oct 1974
Gallup: Lab 41.5, Con 36, L 19
Actual: Lab 40.2, Con 36.6, L 18.8

1979
Gallup: Con 43, Lab 41, L 13.5
Actual: Con 44.9, Lab 37.7, L 14.1

1983
Gallup: Con 45.5, Lab 26.5, L 26
Actual: Con 43.5, Lab 28.3, L 26

1987
Gallup: Con 41, Lab 34, All 23.5
Actual: Con 43.3, Lab 31.5, All 23.1

1992
Gallup: Con 38.5, Lab 38, LD 20
Actual: Con 42.8, Lab 35.2, LD 18.3

1997
Gallup: Lab 46, Con 33, LD 16
Actual: Lab 44, Con 31, LD 17

2001
Gallup: Lab 48, Con 32, LD 18
Actual: Lab 42, Con 32.7, LD 18.8

Who has the best policy on Eastern European Immigration?

POLLWATCH: UKIP and the public perception of immigration With the restrictions on freedom of movement being lifted for Romania and Bulgaria at the start of the new year, immigration has climbed back up the news agenda this week. But while David Cameron feels heat from The Sun, ComRes polling shows that it is UKIP who the public think has the best policy on Eastern European immigration. Moreover it appears that for all Mr Cameron’s rhetoric on the issue, it has brought him no electoral advantage over Labour. Base: British adults (n=2,027) Nevertheless, Mr Cameron’s pronouncements are playing very much to public opinion. Very large majorities say that they are concerned about immigrants from Eastern Europe being eligible to receive benefits as soon as they arrive in Britain (82%) and putting pressure on public services (82%). People are comparatively less worried about immigrants taking jobs from British workers (69%). Mr Cameron’s attempts to place restrictions on what benefits new immigrants can receive upon arriving in the country therefore ought to chime better with the public than Gordon Brown’s pledge of “British jobs for British workers”. Whether it translates into credit for him is another matter. But beyond being an idea that many people oppose, what do the public actually think about immigration? Firstly, they think of immigration in quite particular terms. In a recent ComRes poll for ITV News, we began by asking the public about a range of words and phrases which they might associate with immigration from Europe. Five times as many people associated immigration from Europe with “Polish builders” (25%) as with “Italian waiters” (5%). Base: British adults (n=2,027) But some people appear to hold seemingly contradictory views about immigration. Among those who associate immigrants with being “hard working”, two-thirds say they are concerned about immigrants from Eastern Europe receiving benefits immediately (67%) and putting pressure on public services (66%). The same applies to those who associate immigration with ‘multiculturalism and diversity’: seven in ten (70%) are concerned about immigrants ‘failing to integrate with wider British society’. 46% of Britons say that they think Eastern European immigrants receive more in benefits and public services than they contribute in taxes. Although they may or may not be right, it is still only around half the proportion who say they are concerned about immigrants receiving benefits or putting pressure on public services (82%). Base: British adults (n=2,027) Of course, these may not actually be contradictory. It is quite possible to think immigrants are hard-working but believe the principle of them receiving benefits as soon as they arrive in the country is wrong. Or that they pay their tax, but the British state would not be able to build enough schools or hospitals quickly enough to deal with growing numbers of users. Most significant for Mr Cameron however is the lack of advantage for his Party over Labour on the issue. In 2011 Migrationwatch published a report calculating that more than three million migrants joined the UK population during “Labour’s open door on immigration”. The issue consistently lies in second place under the economy as the biggest issue for voters. That is why both Labour and the Conservatives will be praying that the Democracy Institute, a think tank, is wrong in estimating that some 385,000 Bulgarians and Romanians will come to Britain after restrictions are lifted two weeks from tomorrow.

Follow ComRes Chairman Andrew Hawkins on Twitter: @Andrew_ComRes Facebook Google+ LinkedIn Twitter Author:Adam Ludlow Research Analyst Political & Media Team Making plans for 2014? To find out more about how ComRes market and opinion research can support your work, please contact: Jasmine Morgan +44 (0)20 7871 8655Jasmine.Morgan@comres.co.uk

Methodology note: ComRes interviewed 2,029 British adults online between 6^th and 8^th December 2013 and 2,058 British adults online between 13^th and 15^th December 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults aged 18+. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full results tables can be found here: http://comres.co.uk/poll/1066/itv-news-index.htm

PMQ's 18th DECEMBER 2013

UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:

		1 day	7 day
Hung Parliament	39.17%
Labour Majority	36.83%
Conservative Majority	23.50%
Other Party Majority	0.49%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 10:00:27, Wed 18 December 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

YOUGOV POLLING 16th-17th DEC

 Latest YouGov / The Sun results 17th Dec - Con 33%, Lab 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%; APP -28

Yougov #LIBDEM voters of #GE2010 42% now vote #LABOUR 28% stayed #LIBDEM 14% now vote #CONSERVATIVE 10% vote #UKIP 3% vote 'GREEN
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 18, 2013

@YouGov 60+ voters #CONSERVATIVES 35% #LABOUR 34% #UKIP 18% #LIBDEMS 8% #SNP / #PLAID 3% #GREENS 1%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 18, 2013

@YouGov AGE 18-24 voters #LABOUR 42% #CONSERVATIVES 29% #LIBDEMS 11% #UKIP 8% #GREENS 6% #SNP / #PLAID 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 18, 2013

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/tam95cb93u/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-171213.pdf

Crewe & Nantwich SURVATION POLLING

Crewe & Nantwich SURVATION POLLING #LABOUR 46% +12% #CONSERVATIVES 33% -13% #UKIP 11% +8% #LIBDEMS 6% -9% http://t.co/Y3GOEG0m4E
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 16, 2013

Crewe & Nantwich If only to further illustrate the point that UKIP’s impact on the Conservative – Labour race is not as significant as many have claimed, one need only compare the results in Great Yarmouth above with the poll results in another key marginal seat, Crewe & Nantwich. The 2010 results here were remarkably similar to Great Yarmouth (only 7 points difference across all political parties), but by contrast this is a seat in which UKIP is performing significantly less well, on only 11 points. But the lower UKIP vote share does not seem to have helped the Conservatives at all – in fact the Conservative to Labour swing shown here is three points higher than in Great Yarmouth. - See more at: http://survation.com/2013/12/alan-bown-polls-4-new-constituencies/#sthash.aR3DZXqD.dpuf

Great Yarmouth SURVATION POLLING

Great Yarmouth SURVATION POLLING #LABOUR 37% +4% #UKIP 30% +25% #CONSERVATIVES 28% -15% #LIBDEMS 4% -10% http://t.co/pppUEgeqoy
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 16, 2013

Great Yarmouth has been a key swing seat since the 1980s, which the Conservatives regained from Labour in 2010. Our polling shows that not only is Labour forecast to regain this seat in 2015, but the Conservatives are in danger of slipping from first to third place, behind UKIP who have surged from 5% to 30% – alongside South Thanet the highest figure we have polled them in out of the constituency polls published so far. Far from this being a result of UKIP simply depressing the Conservative vote, however, the poll shows UKIP taking almost as many votes from Labour as from the Conservatives here, with the result that the Conservatives would not be forecast to hold the seat even if all UKIP votes were reallocated by 2010 vote. - See more at: http://survation.com/2013/12/alan-bown-polls-4-new-constituencies/#sthash.aR3DZXqD.dpuf

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton SURVATION POLLING

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton SURVATION #CONSERVATIVES 37% -14% #UKIP 27% +10% #LABOUR 20% +6% #LIBDEMS 11% -13% http://t.co/FIMhplDG1i
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 16, 2013

Correction, in my haste to get these out it should read +20% for UKIP

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton has traditionally been an even more secure seat for the Conservatives, with a 27 point majority in 2010. Whilst the swings shown here are not quite as large as those seen in Folkestone & Hythe, they still show a significant drop in Conservative and Liberal Democrats support here and a large boost for UKIP who have nearly quadrupled their already significant vote share of 7% in 2010. The gain for Labour here is relatively small at six points, suggesting they are perhaps struggling to make much headway in this affluent southern constituency. - See more at: http://survation.com/2013/12/alan-bown-polls-4-new-constituencies/#sthash.aR3DZXqD.dpuf

Folkestone & Hythe SURVATION POLLING

Folkestone & Hythe SURVATION POLLING #CONSERVATIVES 35% -14% #UKIP 28% +22% #LABOUR 21% +10% #LIBDEMS 10% -20% http://t.co/qlXvxIkn4n
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 16, 2013

Folkestone & Hythe, previously considered a safe Conservative seat with a 19 point lead over the Liberal Democrats at the last election, now shows a significant drop in the vote shares for both coalition partners, with Labour and particularly UKIP as the main beneficiaries. UKIP have jumped from fourth place in 2010 to second place in the current voting intention, with the Conservative lead now forecast at only 7 points. Once this transformation in the state of the race becomes widely known to voters, the question is whether Labour and Lib Dem voters will side with UKIP for a chance to defeat Tory incumbents, or fall in behind the Conservatives to keep out the chance of a UKIP gain. - See more at: http://survation.com/2013/12/alan-bown-polls-4-new-constituencies/#sthash.aR3DZXqD.dpuf

COMRES POLLING 11th-13th DEC

 Con 29% (0)
Lab 36% (+1)
UKIP 18% (+1)
LD 8% (-2)
Other 9% (0)

COMRES YORKS & HUMBER VOTING INTENTIONS #LABOUR 45% #UKIP 26% #CONSERVATIVES 15% #LIBDEMS 9% #GREENS 3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 15, 2013

COMRES WEST MIDLANDS VOTING INTENTIONS #LABOUR 34% #UKIP 30% #CONSERVATIVES 28% #LIBDEMS 5% #GREENS 1%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 15, 2013

COMRES ENGLAND & WALES VOTING INTENTIONS #LABOUR 36% #CONSERVATIVES 30% #UKIP 20% #LIBDEMS 8% #GREENS 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 15, 2013

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_15th_December_2013.pdf

Is one person bigger than the party?

They do say that no one person is greater than the whole. But it does seem to be when you lead your political party that more people follow the leaders than follow the party itself as shown by a snapshot of followers taken below.

@UKLabour 115,478 @Ed_Miliband 276,457
@Conservatives 99,156 @David_Cameron 543,868
@LibDems 54,013 @nick_clegg 143,130
@TheGreenParty 45,785 @natalieben 13,318
(former green leader @CarolineLucas 70,030)
@UKIP 34,302 @Nigel_Farage 98,635
@theSNP 25,886 @AlexSalmond 51,641
@Plaid_Cymru 8,321 @LeanneWood 9,143

Leader/Party ratio
Cameron 5.5
Farage 2.9
Clegg 2.6
Miliband 2.4
Salmond 2

DECEMBERS POLITICAL PARTY CYBER WARRIORS

 I do wonder why there is such a disparage between gainers on Twitter and Facebook. Does anyone have an idea as to why? This month sees another steady rise for Labour on Twitter a thousand down on the gainers from the previous month but still a good solid rise and sees them take a good lead over the Conservatives.

Lib Dems are steadily growing on Twitter but almost stagnant on Facebook UKIP see rises on both Twitter and Facebook in almost equal measures. The SNP made bigger than normal gains I would say due to the fact of the release of the White paper on Independence.

NHA party made the greatest advances on twitter in percentage terms having a 25% increase on gainers from the previous month. But yet again they flounder on Facebook.

The BNP have had a very nominal gains on Twitter but on Facebook this month they have been the biggest gainers. Again, does anyone know why?

TWITTER

as of December 14th 11.44am

PARTY / DECEMBERS FOLLOWERS / NOVEMBERS FOLLOWERS / DIFFERENCE +/-
  
@UKLabour 115,478 / 111,193 / 4,285
@Conservatives 99,156 / 97,082 / 2,074
@LibDems 54,013 / 52,472 / 1,541
@TheGreenParty 45,785 / 45,219 / 566
@UKIP 34,302 / 33,248 / 1,054
@theSNP 25,886 / 24,572 /1,314
@NHAparty 24,345 / 21,864 / 2,481
@Plaid_Cymru 8,321 / 8,182 / 139
@duponline 7,983 / 7,730 / 273
@bnp 6,409 / 6,267 / 142
@LoonyPartyNews 5,035 / 5,052 / -17
@The_SSP_ 4,889 / na / na 
@MebyonKernow 2,987 / 2,916 / 71
@RepublicanSF 2,427 / 2,377 / 50
@TUSCoalition 1,851 / 1,775 / 76
@EnglishVoice 1,609 / 1,595 / 14


BIGGEST GAINERS 

Labour 4,285
NHA PARTY 2,481
Conservatives 2,074
Liberal Democrats 1,541
SNP  1,314
UKIP 1,054

FACEBOOK LIKES (when over 100,000 it is stated in thousands  1k)

PARTY / DECEMBERS LIKES / NOVEMBERS LIKES / DIFFERENCE +/-

CONSERVATIVES  162K / 161K / 1K
LABOUR 155K / 154K / 1K
BNP 96,307 / 94,445 / 1,862
LIB DEMS 91,583 / 91,484 / 99
UKIP 54,816 / 53,271 / 1,545
SNP 30,298 / 29,013 / 1,285
THE GREEN PARTY 23,382 / 23,271 / 111
LOONY PARTY 11,917 / 11,895 / 22
PLAID CYMRU 7,929 / 7,901 / 28
NHA PARTY 5,110 / 5,049 / 61
RESPECT PARTY 1,256 / 1,250 / 6
MEBYON KERNOW 631 / 593 / 38

BIGGEST GAINERS 

BNP 1,862
UKIP 1,545
SNP 1,285
CONSERVATIVES 1K
LABOUR 1K


If you would like to view more of my political pop charts follow the link below

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html

LATEST YOUGOV POLLING

 Update: Labour lead at 6 - Latest YouGov / The Sun results 11th Dec - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%; APP -26

YOUGOV AGE 18 - 24 VOTER #LABOUR 45% #CONSERVATIVES 29% #LIBDEMS 11% #UKIP 8% DON'T KNOWS 15% WON'T VOTE 21%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 12, 2013

YOUGOV AGE 60+ VOTER #CONSERVATIVES 38% #LABOUR 29% #UKIP 20% #LIBDEMS 9% DON'T KNOWS 12% WON'T VOTE 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) December 12, 2013

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ephmavgxik/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-111213.pdf

COMRES THOUGHTS ON SWING VOTERS

POLLWATCH: Where have all the swing voters gone?

Once a staple in the lexicon of every budding politico, a copy of Philip Gould’s The Unfinished Revolution tucked firmly under the arm, today the term “swing voter” appears only infrequently. Actually coming across a “traditional” swing voter (i.e. someone switching between the two main parties) appears to happen even less often.

The importance of swing voters

“Traditional” swing voters still represent a vital part of the electorate though. Quite simply, because they are worth double.

Let’s say at a General Election, the Conservatives receive 40% and Labour receive 30% of the vote. At the following election, if Labour wins 1% more of the total vote share, taking it from people who voted for the Liberal Democrats first time around, it takes them to 31%, leaving them 9 points behind the Tories (who remain on 40%).

But if instead, they win 1 percentage point from people who voted Conservative in the first election, it takes Labour to 31%, the Conservatives to 39% and the gap between them to 8 points. In other words, even though Labour only increases its own share of the vote by 1 point, the lead against them is reduced by 2.

This is sometimes compared to the “six pointer” games that you get in football when teams at the top of the league play against each other. A win can be worth six points – the three they gain from the win, and the three their opponents miss out on from losing.

Labour swing voters

With this in mind, and Labour searching for the votes to get them over the finish line, it is worth looking at the effect this type of swing voters is having.

The graph below shows, over the course of this Parliament, the change in the proportion of those who say they voted for the Conservatives at the last election saying they would for Labour next time around.

As can be seen, the proportion of 2010 Conservatives swinging to Labour rose slightly in 2011, and then more drastically in 2012, around the time of the Omnishambles Budget, to between 4-8%.

Based on the Tories winning 37% of the vote in 2010, and 5% switching their vote to Labour next time, this would see the Conservatives’ overall headline figure reducing by just under 2 points, and Labour’s increasing by the same amount (5% of 37% = 1.85%).

But this year, the number of Tory to Labour switchers has slowly eroded to just below 2011 levels. The question is, where have these swing voters gone?

Destination unknown?

One theory is that people are simply demonstrating “false recall”. As the last General Election has moved further into the past, Conservative voters who are now saying they would vote Labour have either forgotten how they actually voted last time or are embarrassed to admit it.

This may have some merit, but is by no means certain. A roughly similar number of people said they voted Conservative at the last election in our telephone poll in July 2013 (204) as did in July 2012 (201). But the 2013 poll showed one of the smallest numbers of Conservative to Labour switchers (1%), while the 2012 poll showed one of the highest (7%).

Instead, there seems to be another factor driving the decline in Conservatives to Labour switchers.

Below is another version of the above graph. But the purple line has been added to include the proportion of 2010 Conservative voters saying they would vote UKIP next time.

As can be seen, the decline in Labour swingers this year coincides with the dramatic rise of previous Conservative voters switching to UKIP.

There has been much debate about what effect the rise of UKIP is having and who it is taking votes from. Our polling shows that the party is taking much more support from past Conservative voters than past Labour voters (according to our latest online poll, UKIP took 19% of 2010 Tories, but just 7% of 2010 Labour voters).

However, the graph above shows that UKIP is affecting Labour’s vote share by pulling away potential new voters who previously sided with the Tories, and that once upon a time, in a two-party past, might have switched to them when frustrated with the governing party midterm.

Swing voters and 2015

This has a number of effects. The first is that while UKIP are performing well, it is likely to bring down the ceiling of Labour’s potential vote share, something that should worry the Opposition as it searches for a majority.

But the second is that the narrowing of the polls in favour of the governing party as the election approaches, which has happened to varying extents in the past, may be less dramatic this time around. Again, “traditional” swing voters are worth double: people registering a “protest” opinion mid-Parliament may well still return to the governing party at the time of the election. But this time the Tories’ vote share would be topped up with current UKIP supporters, and thus voters returning to their fold would not have the multiple effect of reducing Labour’s vote share. This would cause the poll gap to narrow at half the pace as would happen in a two-party pattern.

Traditional binary swing voters are still vitally important – to both parties. But their relative decline in a multi-party system may cause the dynamics of the next election to behave in a slightly different way from how they have in the past.

Both teams at the top of the league are choosing to focus their efforts on thrashing much weaker opponents, which may well provide a healthy goal difference at the end of the season. But as some pointed out when England got their difficult World Cup draw last week: to be the best, you often need to beat the best.

Follow ComRes Chairman Andrew Hawkins on Twitter: @Andrew_ComRes

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Author:Adam Ludlo Research Analyst Political & Media Team m

Author: Adam Ludlow Research Analyst Political & Media Team

PMQ's 11th DECEMBER 2013

Welsh Opinion Polls

www.itv.com/news/wales/2013-12-10/new-poll-tracks-welsh-voters/

Westminster (change on 2010):
Labour 46% (+10%)
Conservative 21% (-5%)
Plaid Cymru 12% (+1%)
UKIP 10% (+8%)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-12%)
Others 4% (no change)

Assembly Constituency (change on 2011):
Labour 43% (+1%)
Conservative 19% (-6%)
Plaid Cymru 20% (+1%)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-2%)
UKIP 7% (+7%)
Others 3% (no change)

Assembly List (change on 2011):
Labour 40% (+3%)
Conservative 19% (-3.5%)
Plaid Cymru 15% (-3%)
UKIP 10% (+5%)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1%)
Others 7% (-3%)

European Parliament:
Labour 41%
Conservative 20%
Plaid Cymru 13%
UKIP 13%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Others 5%

SCOTTISH OPINION POLLS

Ipsos Mori
Constituency:

SNP 36%
Lab 34%
Con 15%
LD 7%
Grn 4%
UKIP 1%

Attempting to extrapolate that out to regional vote and you end up with this..

Candidates on Twitter

I can't thank ANDYAJS enough as he has done another great service of finding all the twitter accounts for the candidates taking part in the General Election of 2015

find the link below

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDR1NHZVS0ozZkpaYVlPV2d4WHR5ZXc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

I will be incorporating them into my own  PROSPECTIVE PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE SELECTIONS FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTION

Great work Andy!

VIRGIN MEDIA PRICE RISE IN FEBRUARY HOW TO FIGHT BACK.

I apologise in advance for this being off topic.

But thought it would be useful as a public service announcement.

You may have like myself received a email saying your virgin broadband package is going up by £3 a month mid way thru the contract as of the 1st February.

This is now not allowed  (see link)

Before you could use a clause in your contract that if the rise was more than the rate of inflation (which mine was 7.5%) you can come out without penalty and just give 30 days notice. Now any mid price increase gives you the same get out.

I have rung today and they do have a save tool which in most cases will lower your tariff from what you are paying now and they re sign you for 12 months or you can choose to leave and take a new customer deal elsewhere.

So ring from your home phone if you have them for the phone services 150 it is free and ask to be put thru to the disconnections team. Quote the above information and you will get out of your contract or save money.

YES in SCOTLAND is best for CONSERVATIVES

Result of the 2010 General Election with Scotland

CON 307 LAB 258 LD 57 OTH 28

Without Scotland

CON 306 LAB 217 LD 46 OTH 22

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 21

So why don't the Conservatives support a YES! campaign as it would be better for them?

 

Full England Scoreboard FROM 2010

Party	Seats	Gain	Loss	Net	Votes	%	+/-%
Conservative	298	95	3	+92	9,931,029	39.6	+3.9
Labour	191	2	89	-87	7,042,398	28.1	-7.4
Liberal Democrat	43	8	12	-4	6,076,189	24.2	+1.3
Green	1	1	0	+1	258,954	1.0	-0.1
UK Independence Party	0	0	0	0	866,633	3.5	+0.9
British National Party	0	0	0	0	532,333	2.1	+1.3
English Democrats	0	0	0	0	64,826	0.3	+0.2
Respect-Unity Coalition	0	0	1	-1	33,251	0.1	-0.2
Independent Community and Health Concern	0	0	1	-1	16,150	0.1	+0.0
Christian Party	0	0	0	0	15,841	0.1
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	0	0	0	0	8,404	0.0
Others	0	0	0	0	239,089	0.9	0.0
Turnout					25,085,097	65.5	+4.5

After 533 of 533 seats declared

Full Wales Scoreboard

Party	Seats	Gain	Loss	Net	Votes	%	+/-%
Labour	26	1	5	-4	531,601	36.2	-6.5
Conservative	8	5	0	+5	382,730	26.1	+4.7
Liberal Democrat	3	0	1	-1	295,164	20.1	+1.7
Plaid Cymru	3	1	0	+1	165,394	11.3	-1.3
UK Independence Party	0	0	0	0	35,690	2.4	+1.0
British National Party	0	0	0	0	23,088	1.6	+1.5
Green	0	0	0	0	6,293	0.4	-0.1
Christian Party	0	0	0	0	1,947	0.1
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	0	0	0	0	341	0.0
Others	0	0	1	-1	24,442	1.7	-1.1
Turnout					1,466,690	64.9	2.2

After 40 of 40 seats declared.

Full Scotland Scoreboard

Party	Seats	Gain	Loss	Net	Votes	%	+/-%
Labour	41	0	0	0	1,035,528	42.0	+2.5
Liberal Democrat	11	0	0	0	465,471	18.9	-3.7
Scottish National Party	6	0	0	0	491,386	19.9	+2.3
Conservative	1	0	0	0	412,855	16.7	+0.9
UK Independence Party	0	0	0	0	17,223	0.7	+0.3
Green	0	0	0	0	16,827	0.7	-0.3
British National Party	0	0	0	0	8,910	0.4	+0.3
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	0	0	0	0	3,530	0.1
Scottish Socialist Party	0	0	0	0	3,157	0.1	-1.7
Christian Party	0	0	0	0	835	0.0
Others	0	0	0	0	10,000	0.4	-0.6
Turnout					2,465,722	63.8	+3.0

After 59 of 59 seats declared.

PLUS 18 SEATS IN NORTHERN IRELAND