General Election Prediction according to Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Labour majority 28

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	31.97%	257
LAB	29.66%	258	34.33%	339
LIB	23.56%	57	8.39%	18
UKIP	3.17%	0	15.73%	0
NAT	2.26%	9	3.16%	17
MIN	4.37%	19	6.42%	19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 May 14 to 30 May 14, sampling 10,185 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority	10%
Labour majority	57%
Con/Lib coalition	5%
Lab/Lib coalition	12%
Lib choice of coalition	0%
No overall control	14%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.


Source of information

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html