Sunday, 1 February 2015

Electoral Calculus #GE2015 Prediction


Current Prediction: Labour short 29 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30731.99%265
LAB29.66%25832.97%297
LIB23.56%57 7.87%17
UKIP 3.17%015.67%1
Green 0.97%1 6.01%1
NAT 2.26%9 4.30%50
MIN 3.40%18 1.20%19
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Jan 15 to 30 Jan 15, sampling 10,760 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
30%
Lab/Nat coalition
17%
Conservative majority
13%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
12%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
11%
Con/Nat coalition
11%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
6%
No overall control
2%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 1 February 2015 at

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Almost all the pollsters agree that January saw a shrinking of Labour's lead
over the Conservatives. On average the gap narrowed from 3% to around 1%.

As the general election approaches, Electoral Calculus has improved its models,
particular for the smaller parties like UKIP and Green. The website now shows
the predicted results for the Greens explicitly, and also has a more
sophisticated model for the variation of UKIP and Green votes across the
country. Also the user predictor now allows easy prediction of the Greens, as
well as the SNP, to give an overall national picture.

The most recent polls from the eight pollsters who published polls in January
are:

Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 33, Lab 34, Lib 8, UKIP 11, Green 8
TNS BMRB has Con 31, Lab 31, Lib 8, UKIP 16, Green 7
ICM (Guardian) has Con 30, Lab 33, Lib 11, UKIP 11, Green 9
ComRes (Independent) has Con 31, Lab 30, Lib 8, UKIP 17, Green 7
Survation (Daily Mirror) has Con 31, Lab 30, Lib 7, UKIP 23, Green 3
Populus has Con 34, Lab 35, Lib 10, UKIP 14, Green 4
Opinium (Observer) has Con 32, Lab 33, Lib 5, UKIP 18, Green 6
YouGov (Sunday Times) has Con 32, Lab 35, Lib 7, UKIP 15, Green 6

The averages: Con 32 (+1), Lab 33 (-1), Lib 8 (-1), UKIP 16 (unch), Grn 6 (unch).

The new national prediction is that Labour will be 29 seats short of a majority,
winning 297 seats (-24 seats since 31 December).

Electoral Calculus

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