Sunday, 1 February 2015

#GE2015 Election Forecast (Feb1st)

most recently on 01 February 2015 at 14:12. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 285 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Rising slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Labour 243 285 331 27
Conservatives 237 281 322 -25
SNP 23 35 47 29
Liberal Democrats 15 24 35 -33
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 6 3
SDLP 1 3 3 -1
Plaid Cymru 1 2 3 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 1
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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