Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Sorry to mention weighting again. But!

This is from yesterday on the very same day YOUGOV has as a subsample 36% Conservatives and 16% SNP in Scotland. They do this for the 18-24 age bracket.

Why has YOUGOV boosted a figure for a section of the electorate which is least likely to vote. But in the section for those who are most likely to vote down grade it as shown here?

Instead of trying to guess how the younger voters are going to vote why don't the pollsters find a new way of engaging this section of people and getting an honest answer?

Or is it as I have put out below an even truer reflection of the over all picture. What really matters and counts is actual votes cast in by elections, from those of all ages and creeds and social back grounds. No guessing has been needed. Simply compare the latest votes with when those elections were last held.

It shows a growing swing to Labour as of last week 3% The greatest gainers are UKIP so giving rise to a myth that UKIP only harm Conservatives but seem also to stop old Tories turning red. It also shows that although the Lib Dems are not doing well, they are holding their own where they have a foot hold and not total collapse as shown by the polls. Yes they are not doing well, but could hold onto a lot more MPs than the opinion polls suggests.

What are your thoughts?

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%

12th September - 26th September 2013
CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%

17th September - 3rd October 2013
CON -5.8% LAB + 0.8% UKIP + 12.3% LD -2.9% IND -3.2% GREEN + 0.7%  OTHERS -1.9% 

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