Sunday, 16 November 2014

#GE2015 Forecast (NOV 16th)

most recently on 16 November 2014 at 12:20. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

 
When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains
The following table provides the individual seat-predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
England 279 231 17 0 0 1 4 1
Scotland 2 19 0 38 0 0 0 0
Wales 8 29 1 0 2 0 0 0
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 233 284 336 -22
Labour 233 283 334 25
Liberal Democrats 10 21 34 -36
SNP 24 36 47 30
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 0 1 1 0
UKIP 1 4 8 4
Other 1 1 1 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

No comments:

Post a comment

Comment is open to all feel free to link to this blog.