Sunday, 2 November 2014

Latest #GE2015 Prediction by Electoral Calculus (LAB short by 24)

Current Prediction: Labour short 24 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
Prediction based on opinion polls from 10 Oct 14 to 31 Oct 14, sampling 9,823 people.

Link to details of Septembers prediction with a Labour Majority of 42

During October, there were two separate trends which go against Labour. At the
national level, Labour's lead over the Conservatives shrunk from 5% to 1%, with
four out of the seven pollsters seeing the two main parties level-pegging.

Secondly, in Scotland the SNP have gained significantly. Taking the average of
recent polls in Scotland, the figures are: Con 15, Lab 27, Lib 6, Ukip 4, SNP 43.
This would give the SNP 47 out of Scotland's 59 MPs and take thirty seats away
from Labour.

The combined effect of these two trends is to remove Labour's majority, giving
Labour its lowest predicted number of seats in four years.

The most recent polls from the seven pollsters who published polls in October

Survation (Mail on Sunday) has Con 31, Lab 31, Lib 7, UKIP 25
ICM (Guardian) has Con 31, Lab 35, Lib 11, UKIP 14
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 30, Lab 33, Lib 8, UKIP 16
Opinium (Observer) has Con 33, Lab 33, Lib 6, UKIP 18
ComRes (Independent) has Con 30, Lab 30, Lib 9, UKIP 19
Populus has Con 34, Lab 34, Lib 8, UKIP 15
YouGov (Sunday Times) has Con 31, Lab 32, Lib 7, UKIP 18

Overall the average is Con 32 (+1), Lab 33 (-3), Lib 8 (unch), UKIP 18 (+3).

The new national prediction is that Labour will be 24 seats short of a majority,
winning 302 seats (-44 seats since 27 September).

You can make your own SNP-based predictions at

Electoral Calculus

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