Friday, 14 November 2014

YOUGOV POLLING AND THE SCOTTISH SUB SAMPLE

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard


The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction:

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON16.75%111.00%010
LAB42.00%4117.00%0410
LIB18.88%118.00%0101
NAT19.93%649.00%52058
MIN0.28%00.28%000
OTH2.18%014.72%000
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Table of all seat results in Scotland

The table shows the seats, sorted by the difference between Labour and Conservative votes, with the safest Labour seat, Glasgow North East, at the top and the safest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, at the bottom. The first two columns 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats' show how many seats each party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority in Scotland. So Labour needs to win all the seats down as far as (prediction: ), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to (prediction: ). Click here for more information about this table.

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010 ElectorateTurn
out %
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
00Glasgow North EastWillie Bain59,85949.133.2036.121.6842.342.7113.94LABNAT
00Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTom Clarke70,06759.424.8634.821.8545.920.0012.55LABNAT
00Glasgow EastMargaret Curran61,51652.292.7131.051.1050.052.1012.99LABNAT
00Glasgow South WestIan Davidson58,18254.623.9331.761.9744.580.0017.76LABNAT
00Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathGordon Brown73,66562.185.5833.282.0343.820.0015.29LABNAT
00GlenrothesLindsay Roy67,89359.654.3331.631.6849.380.0012.98LABNAT
00Dunbartonshire WestGemma Doyle66,08563.964.6030.851.7747.940.0014.83LABNAT
00Motherwell and WishawFrank Roy66,91858.465.6130.722.1447.360.0014.16LABNAT
00Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTom Greatrex76,40861.495.8030.492.6246.530.0014.57LABNAT
00Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthDouglas Alexander61,19765.365.9729.602.0847.020.0015.34LABNAT
00Airdrie and ShottsPamela Nash62,36457.485.2428.511.7651.110.0013.37LABNAT
00Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastGregg McClymont64,03764.264.9727.822.0851.870.0013.27LABNAT
00Glasgow CentralAnas Sarwar60,06250.914.2323.933.5848.062.6217.59LABNAT
00InverclydeDavid Cairns59,20963.367.2026.872.9148.500.0014.52LABNAT
00Glasgow North WestJohn Robertson60,96858.365.9625.443.4546.650.0018.49LABNAT
00Glasgow SouthTom Harris65,02961.666.8723.702.5849.370.0017.47LABNAT
00Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthJames Sheridan63,70468.618.7625.422.3048.870.0014.65LABNAT
00Kilmarnock and LoudounCathy Jamieson74,13162.808.5024.321.6053.640.0011.95LABNAT
00East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowMichael McCann76,53466.577.7923.542.1651.620.0014.89LABNAT
00Dundee WestJames McGovern63,01358.925.5921.272.4956.690.0013.95LABNAT
00Dunfermline and West FifeThomas Docherty73,76966.354.0519.6219.4442.040.0014.85LABNAT
00Linlithgow and East FalkirkMichael Connarty80,90763.597.1722.282.8054.990.0012.76LABNAT
00LivingstonGraeme Morrice75,92463.106.4621.262.4254.000.0015.86LABNAT
00Glasgow NorthAnn McKechin51,41657.594.2318.3115.7143.110.0018.63LABNAT
00Lanark and Hamilton EastJimmy Hood74,77362.269.0022.392.4650.610.0015.54LABNAT
00MidlothianDavid Hamilton61,38763.937.1320.183.7352.040.0016.92LABNAT
00FalkirkEric Joyce81,86962.026.7319.212.2557.520.0014.29LABNAT
00Ayrshire North and ArranKaty Clark74,95361.539.3820.482.1954.610.0013.34LABNAT
00Edinburgh EastSheila Gilmore60,94165.426.5617.514.2452.185.1014.40LABNAT
00Aberdeen NorthFrank Doran64,80858.177.4318.254.0554.120.0016.15LABNAT
00Ayrshire CentralBrian Donohoe68,35264.2512.3720.702.6050.010.0014.32LABNAT
00Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil22,26666.102.649.621.6367.229.599.30NATNAT
00East LothianFiona O'Donnell73,43866.9411.7918.373.6849.040.0017.11LABNAT
00Edinburgh North and LeithMark Lazarowicz69,20468.438.9713.0518.1941.802.2415.76LABNAT
00Ayr Carrick and CumnockSandra Osborne73,32062.5917.5420.282.0347.460.0012.70LABNAT
00Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson63,79575.169.3010.5623.0642.260.0014.83LIBNAT
00Ochil and South PerthshireGordon Banks75,11567.1912.4913.382.4956.570.0015.06LABNAT
00Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,47161.969.149.972.3164.190.0014.40NATNAT
00Edinburgh South WestAlistair Darling66,35968.5116.2517.063.9345.600.0017.15LABNAT
00Renfrewshire EastJim Murphy66,24977.2622.4222.992.0138.890.0013.69LABNAT
00StirlingAnne McGuire66,08070.8916.0316.253.1748.600.0015.95LABNAT
00Aberdeen SouthAnne Begg64,03167.2112.7112.3512.7545.250.0016.92LABNAT
00Edinburgh SouthIan Murray59,35473.8013.5811.0118.3840.740.0016.29LABNAT
00Dumfries and GallowayRussell Brown74,58169.9523.6319.361.9341.260.0013.83LABNAT
00Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJohn Thurso47,25760.887.813.4525.7648.520.0014.47LIBNAT
00Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael33,08558.476.300.0046.3431.850.0015.51LIBLIB
00Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDanny Alexander72,52864.928.001.5725.0847.680.0017.66LIBNAT
00Ross Skye and LochaberCharles Kennedy51,83667.217.340.0037.0040.000.0015.67LIBNAT
00Edinburgh WestMichael Crockart65,16171.2815.185.7820.2945.010.0013.74LIBNAT
00GordonMalcolm Bruce73,42066.4311.210.0920.4052.330.0015.98LIBNAT
00Fife North EastSir Menzies Campbell62,96963.6213.750.0028.7042.670.0014.87LIBNAT
00Argyll and ButeAlan Reid67,16567.3116.032.0415.9849.900.0016.05LIBNAT
00MorayAngus Robertson65,92562.2018.050.003.1765.140.0013.63NATNAT
00Aberdeenshire West and KincardineSir Robert Smith66,11068.3622.270.0022.7841.710.0013.25LIBNAT
00Perth and North PerthshirePeter Wishart72,14166.9122.540.002.6963.400.0011.37NATNAT
00Banff and BuchanEilidh Whiteford64,30059.8222.780.002.4862.810.0011.93NATNAT
00AngusMichael Weir62,86360.3922.920.002.3563.060.0011.66NATNAT
00Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell66,62768.8830.046.654.3242.710.0016.28CONNAT
00Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkMichael Moore73,82666.3925.780.0029.7232.810.0011.69LIBNAT

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/gugjcuqdr6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-131114.pdf 

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