Sunday, 30 November 2014

Yougov ( The Scottish sub sample )

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction:

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON16.75%116.00%010
LAB42.00%4131.00%02417
LIB18.88%113.00%0110
NAT19.93%644.00%36042
MIN0.28%00.28%000
OTH2.18%05.72%000
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Table of all seat results in Scotland

The table shows the seats, sorted by the difference between Labour and Conservative votes, with the safest Labour seat, Glasgow North East, at the top and the safest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, at the bottom. The first two columns 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats' show how many seats each party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority in Scotland. So Labour needs to win all the seats down as far as (prediction: ), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to (prediction: ). Click here for more information about this table.

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010 ElectorateTurn
out %
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
117Glasgow North EastWillie Bain59,85949.135.0656.920.0031.042.714.27LABLAB
216Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTom Clarke70,06759.427.6855.170.0034.540.002.61LABLAB
315Glasgow EastMargaret Curran61,51652.294.2850.120.0039.282.104.20LABLAB
414Glasgow South WestIan Davidson58,18254.626.2251.070.0034.460.008.25LABLAB
513Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathGordon Brown73,66562.188.8153.110.0032.800.005.27LABLAB
612GlenrothesLindsay Roy67,89359.656.8450.910.0038.700.003.55LABLAB
711Dunbartonshire WestGemma Doyle66,08563.967.2749.860.0037.490.005.37LABLAB
810Motherwell and WishawFrank Roy66,91858.468.8749.690.0037.100.004.35LABLAB
99Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTom Greatrex76,40861.499.1649.380.0036.950.004.51LABLAB
108Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthDouglas Alexander61,19765.369.4348.180.0036.790.005.60LABLAB
117Airdrie and ShottsPamela Nash62,36457.488.2946.730.0040.950.004.04LABLAB
126Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastGregg McClymont64,03764.267.8545.800.0042.450.003.90LABLAB
125Glasgow CentralAnas Sarwar60,06250.916.6940.590.0042.082.628.02LABNAT
135Glasgow North WestJohn Robertson60,96858.369.4242.620.0039.440.008.51LABLAB
144InverclydeDavid Cairns59,20963.3611.3844.540.0039.670.004.42LABLAB
143Glasgow SouthTom Harris65,02961.6610.8640.290.0040.930.007.92LABNAT
153Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthJames Sheridan63,70468.6113.8442.600.0038.850.004.71LABLAB
152Dunfermline and West FifeThomas Docherty73,76966.356.4034.829.1243.520.006.14LABNAT
152Dundee WestJames McGovern63,01358.928.8437.040.0049.180.004.94LABNAT
152East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowMichael McCann76,53466.5712.3140.080.0042.230.005.38LABNAT
152Kilmarnock and LoudounCathy Jamieson74,13162.8013.4341.110.0042.950.002.51LABNAT
152Linlithgow and East FalkirkMichael Connarty80,90763.5911.3338.400.0047.090.003.19LABNAT
152LivingstonGraeme Morrice75,92463.1010.2137.030.0046.050.006.71LABNAT
152Glasgow NorthAnn McKechin51,41657.596.6933.086.8643.540.009.83LABNAT
152MidlothianDavid Hamilton61,38763.9311.2635.590.0046.040.007.11LABNAT
152Lanark and Hamilton EastJimmy Hood74,77362.2614.2238.530.0041.470.005.78LABNAT
152FalkirkEric Joyce81,86962.0210.6434.280.0049.690.005.39LABNAT
152Edinburgh EastSheila Gilmore60,94165.4210.3632.000.0047.805.104.72LABNAT
152Aberdeen NorthFrank Doran64,80858.1711.7332.990.0048.950.006.33LABNAT
152Ayrshire North and ArranKaty Clark74,95361.5314.8335.970.0045.360.003.83LABNAT
152Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil22,26666.104.1721.450.0062.349.592.45NATNAT
152Ayrshire CentralBrian Donohoe68,35264.2519.3336.280.0040.300.004.09LABNAT
152East LothianFiona O'Donnell73,43866.9418.6333.160.0041.580.006.63LABNAT
152Edinburgh North and LeithMark Lazarowicz69,20468.4314.1726.038.3642.482.246.72LABNAT
152Ayr Carrick and CumnockSandra Osborne73,32062.5924.5035.710.0037.000.002.79LABNAT
162Renfrewshire EastJim Murphy66,24977.2629.3839.350.0027.760.003.51LABLAB
161Edinburgh South WestAlistair Darling66,35968.5123.2231.410.0038.740.006.64LABNAT
161Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson63,79575.1614.6922.7111.3045.070.006.22LIBNAT
161Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,47161.9614.4421.920.0057.690.005.95NATNAT
161StirlingAnne McGuire66,08070.8922.9930.330.0040.790.005.90LABNAT
161Ochil and South PerthshireGordon Banks75,11567.1919.4526.480.0048.430.005.64LABNAT
161Aberdeen SouthAnne Begg64,03167.2119.6825.115.0743.040.007.10LABNAT
171Dumfries and GallowayRussell Brown74,58169.9530.5934.480.0030.870.004.07LABLAB
170Edinburgh SouthIan Murray59,35473.8020.5423.318.4740.780.006.89LABNAT
170Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJohn Thurso47,25760.8812.3413.1912.9354.530.007.02LIBNAT
170Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDanny Alexander72,52864.9212.6410.6712.5353.830.0010.33LIBNAT
170Ross Skye and LochaberCharles Kennedy51,83667.2111.596.4819.7351.860.0010.34LIBNAT
170Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael33,08558.479.964.5725.3848.230.0011.87LIBNAT
170Edinburgh WestMichael Crockart65,16171.2822.1416.319.6346.950.004.98LIBNAT
170GordonMalcolm Bruce73,42066.4317.718.699.6955.960.007.95LIBNAT
170Argyll and ButeAlan Reid67,16567.3122.9911.307.0251.240.007.45LIBNAT
170Fife North EastSir Menzies Campbell62,96963.6220.717.3514.7149.450.007.77LIBNAT
170MorayAngus Robertson65,92562.2025.027.320.0061.760.005.90NATNAT
170Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell66,62768.8837.0017.470.0038.880.006.64CONNAT
170Perth and North PerthshirePeter Wishart72,14166.9129.507.040.0059.440.004.03NATNAT
170AngusMichael Weir62,86360.3929.887.380.0058.440.004.30NATNAT
170Aberdeenshire West and KincardineSir Robert Smith66,11068.3629.235.8411.1347.150.006.65LIBNAT
170Banff and BuchanEilidh Whiteford64,30059.8229.756.000.0059.010.005.24NATNAT
170Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkMichael Moore73,82666.3932.744.3815.3341.330.006.23LIBNAT

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf 

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