Sunday, 9 November 2014

Survation - What difference would changing leader make to Labour?


What difference would changing leader make to Labour? Survation for Mail on Sunday conducted a large scale video "quant focus group" to shed some light:


 
Survation Labour Leadership Survey - Fieldwork Dates: Friday 7th November 2014  Sample size: 1020
 
Voting Intention (Compared to Survation/Daily Mirror 03/11/2014)
Conservative - 29% (+2%) Labour - 34% (+3%) UKIP - 23% (-1%) Liberal Democrat - 6% (-3%) Another Party - 8% (-1%)
 
Description
After our standard demographic, voting questions and some topical questions were asked, these 1020 survey responders were shown short biographies and one minute long videos of potential candidates for Labour leader in turn - in this study Ed Miliband was compared to Alan Johnson, Andy Burnham, Chuka Umunna and Yvette Cooper.
 
Typically the candidate was shown being interviewed on their specific shadow cabinet (aside from AJ of course) brief in a similar format by a BBC interviewer with Ed Miliband included as a comparator.

These techniques would seek to show what public opinion might be if a contest emerged, whether particular candidates might help or hinder Labour as leader and to reduce the advantage a better known candidate would have over another candidate.
 
Descriptions and videos used:
 
Ed Miliband
Leader of the Opposition, Ed Miliband, age 44, was born in London. His father was a marxist academic and his mother was a holocaust survivor and human rights campaigner. He studied at Oxford, was a political adviser to Gordon Brown before becoming a Minister in the last Labour Government. He defeated his brother David to become Labour leader in 2005.    
 
Alan Johnson
Former Labour Home Secretary, Alan Johnson, age 64, was born in London. He was orphaned aged 12 and brought up in a council flat by his older sister. He attended a grammar school, left aged 15, worked as a shelf stacker in Tescos and as a postman. He became a trade union leader before becoming an MP.
 
Andy Burnham
Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham, age 44, was born in Liverpool. His father was a telephone engineer and his mother was a receptionist. He studied at Cambridge and worked as a political advisor to David Blunkett before becoming an MP. He played a leading role in the campaign to win justice for victims of the Hillsborough football tragedy.
 
Chuka Umunna
Shadow Business Secretary, Chuka Umunna, age 36, was born in London. His late father was Nigerian, his mother was an Irish lawyer and his grandfather was a judge who served at the Nuremberg trials of Nazi war criminals. Umunna studied law at Nottingham and worked as a lawyer before becoming an MP in 2010.    
 
Yvette Cooper
Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, age 45, grew up in Hampshire. Her father was a trade union leader. She studied at Oxford and worked as an economist and journalist before becoming an MP in 1997. She was a minister in the governments of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. She is married to Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls.
 
Questions:
1) Leaving aside what you would prefer to happen, which of the two main parties do you most expect to be in power after next year’s election?
The Labour Party - 34%
The Conservative Party - 37%
Don’t know - 29%
 
The European Union
2) If there was a referendum tomorrow on whether the UK should remain a member of the European Union, how do you think you would vote? (compared to 03/11/2014)
Vote for the UK to leave the European Union - 54% (+5%)
Vote for the UK to remain a member of the European Union - 31% (-4%)
Undecided - 15% (-2%)

“Last month the government announced that it had been asked to pay an extra £1.7 billion surcharge in contributions to the EU budget to reflect the fact that the UK economy had grown more than previously thought over recent years. Today George Osborne announced that he had negotiated a deal so that the UK will only have to pay half that amount, £850 million, instead and will be allowed to spread the payment over two installments next year.”

3) The Chancellor said "This is far beyond what anyone expected us to achieve and it’s a result for Britain." To what extent do you agree or disagree with this description?
Strongly agree - 13%
Somewhat agree - 29%
Neither agree nor disagree - 20%
Somewhat disagree - 13%
Strongly disagree - 20%
Don't know - 5%
 
Agree - 42%
Disagree - 32%
(based on unrounded figures)

4) Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
A Labour government led by Ed Miliband would have probably secured a better deal for Britain - 11%
A Labour government led by Ed Miliband would have probably secured a worse deal for Britain - 35%
A Labour government led by Ed Miliband would have probably secured a similar deal for Britain - 25%
Don't know - 29%

5) David Cameron has said he plans to hold a referendum on the EU if he wins the next election, and says he hopes to win concessions in a number of areas prior to the vote, such as over immigration policy. Does Friday’s agreement over the EU budget surcharge make you more or less confident in David Cameron’s ability to win concessions from the EU?
More confident - 25%
Less confident - 22%
No difference - 53%
 
Labour Leadership
 
"In recent days there has been speculation that some Labour MPs want Ed Miliband to stand down as party leader.
You will now be shown a series of video clips and short biographies of Mr Miliband and other Labour politicians tipped as possible successors as Labour leader. Please read all the biographies and watch all the video clips in full and then answer the questions about your perceptions of that politician and how you would vote if they were leader of the Labour Party. If you do not watch all the videos in full you may be screened out of the survey*."
 
*there was a quality control question after each video that only someone who had viewed the video could answer correctly.
 
After each description / video responders were asked the same questions about each MP. Randomisation to address “order bias”  was employed through.  We present the results as tables for ease of comparison.
 
6) Which of the following adjectives do you think describes Ed Miliband/Alan Johnson/Andy Burnham/Chuka Umunna/Yvette Cooper? (Yes/No)
 
Ed Miliband
Alan Johnson
Andy Burnham
Chuka Umunna
Yvette Cooper
Attractive (Yes/No)
19% / 81%
19% / 81%
27% / 73%
48% / 52%
47% / 53%
Strong (Yes/No)
27% / 73%
65% / 35%
52% / 48%
56% / 44%
60% / 40%
In touch (Yes/No)
41% / 59%
70% / 30%
63% / 37%
65% / 35%
63% / 37%
Intelligent (Yes/No)
67% / 33%
78% / 22%
69% / 31%
77% / 23%
80% / 20%
A winner (Yes/No)
22% / 78%
42% / 58%
36% / 64%
43% / 57%
38% / 62%

7) Can you imagine Ed Miliband/Alan Johnson/Andy Burnham/Chuka Umunna/Yvette Cooper… (Yes/No)
 
Ed Miliband
Alan Johnson
Andy Burnham
Chuka Umunna
Yvette Cooper
Standing on the steps of 10 Downing Street as PM  (Yes/No)
35% / 65%
31% / 69%
24% / 76%
30% / 70%
25% / 75%
Negotiating a better deal from the EU  (Yes/No)
26% / 74%
31% / 69%
27% / 73%
31% / 69%
28% / 72%
With their finger on the nuclear button  (Yes/No)
20% / 80%
23% / 77%
17% / 83%
18% / 82%
17% / 83%
Helping the economy grow  (Yes/No)
41% / 59%
41% / 59%
39% / 61%
54% / 46%
40% / 60%
Creating more jobs  (Yes/No)
42% / 58%
47% / 53%
46% / 54%
61% / 39%
39% / 61%
Standing up to the Unions  (Yes/No)
29% / 71%
45% / 55%
41% / 59%
41% / 59%
37% / 63%
Improving the UK’s schools and hospitals  (Yes/No)
48% / 52%
48% / 52%
62% / 38%
48% / 52%
52% / 48%
Getting the national deficit down  (Yes/No)
31% / 69%
30% / 70%
26% / 74%
35% / 65%
32% / 68%
Reforming our welfare system to reduce cost and abuse  (Yes/No)
37% / 63%
44% / 56%
43% / 57%
43% / 57%
50% / 50%
Reducing the level of immigration to the UK  (Yes/No)
26% / 74%
37% / 63%
27% / 73%
23% / 77%
29% / 71%
 
8) Imagine that the leaders of the main parties at the next election are David Cameron for the Conservatives, Ed Miliband/Alan Johnson/Andy Burnham/Chuka Umunna/Yvette Cooper for Labour, Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage for UKIP. Which party would you be most likely to vote for?
 
-Note: These questions were weighted in the same way as the initial “party not leader” normal headline voting figure and so could seek to show the effect of how an informed voter might vote differently (or not) with a differently named Labour Leader - with Ed Milband as a comparator.
 
Ed Miliband?
Alan Johnson?
Andy Burnham?
Chuka Umunna?
Yvette Cooper?
Conservative
30%
29%
32%
29%
31%
Labour
34%
37%
36%
37%
31%
Liberal Democrat
6%
5%
6%
6%
8%
UKIP
23%
22%
23%
22%
23%
Another Party
8%
6%
4%
6%
7%
 
“Head to Head” Comparisons
 
9) If the election was a head to head contest between David Cameron as Conservative leader and Ed Miliband as Labour leader, how would you vote?
Vote for David Cameron - 35%
Vote for Ed Miliband - 35%
Would not vote for either - 22%
Don’t know - 7%
 
10) If the election was a head to head contest between David Cameron as Conservative leader and Alan Johnson as Labour leader, how would you vote?
Vote for David Cameron - 32%
Vote for Alan Johnson - 35%
Would not vote for either - 22%
Don’t know - 11%
 
11) If the election was a head to head contest between David Cameron as Conservative leader and Andy Burnham as Labour leader, how would you vote?
Vote for David Cameron - 34%
Vote for Andy Burnham - 35%
Would not vote for either - 22%
Don’t know - 9%

12) If the election was a head to head contest between David Cameron as Conservative leader and Chuka Umunna and Labour leader, how would you vote?
Vote for David Cameron - 31%
Vote for Chuka Umunna - 36%
Would not vote for either - 20%
Don’t know - 12%
 
13) If the election was a head to head contest between David Cameron as Conservative leader and Yvette Cooper as Labour leader, how would you vote?
Vote for David Cameron - 33%
Vote for Yvette Cooper - 35%
Would not vote for either - 23%
Don’t know - 9%
 
Conservative Politicians
15) Which of the following adjectives do you think describes Prime Minister David Cameron/Home Secretary Theresa May/Mayor of London Boris Johnson? (Yes/No)
 
David Cameron
Theresa May
Boris Johnson
Attractive
22% / 78%
21% / 79%
18% / 82%
Strong
48% / 52%
49% / 51%
51% / 49%
In touch
25% / 75%
29% / 71%
45% / 55%
Intelligent
74% / 26%
64% / 36%
62% / 38%
A winner
37% / 63%
24% / 76%
49% / 51%
 
Labour Leader
 
16) Which of the following statements is closer to your opinion?
The Labour Party should replace Ed Miliband as its leader before the general election - 48%
The Labour Party should not replace Ed Miliband as its leader before the general election - 26%
Don’t know - 26%
 
35% of current Labour voters think Labour should replace Ed Miliband before the general election.
 
17) If Ed Miliband was replaced as leader of the Labour Party, would that make you:
Much more likely to vote Labour - 9%
Somewhat more likely to vote Labour - 17%
Neither more nor less likely to vote Labour - 68%
Somewhat less likely to vote Labour - 4%
Much less likely to vote Labour - 3%
 
More likely - 26%
Less likely - 6%
(based on unrounded figures)

Conservative Leader
 
18) Which of the following statements is closer to your opinion?
The Conservative Party should replace David Cameron as its leader before the general election - 27%
The Conservative Party should not replace David Cameron as its leader before the general election - 49%
Don’t know - 24%
 
19) If David Cameron  was replaced as leader of the Conservative Party, would that make you:
Much more likely to vote Conservative - 3%
Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative - 7%
Neither more nor less likely to vote Conservative - 75%
Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative - 7%
Much less likely to vote Conservative - 8%
 
More likely - 10%
Less likely - 15%
(based on unrounded figures)
 
Labour Leader
20) Which of the following statements is closer to your opinion?
The Labour Party would be doing better if David Miliband had won the leadership election instead of his brother - 34%
The Labour Party would be doing worse if David Miliband had won the leadership election instead of his brother - 7%
The Labour Party would be doing just as well / badly if David Miliband had won the leadership election instead of his brother - 22%
Don’t know - 36%
 
CURRENT LAB VOTERS
39% BETTER, 9% WORSE, 29% SAME 23% DK
 
Leaders
21) Putting all party allegiances aside, which of these leaders do you most respect personally?
David Cameron - 41%
Ed Miliband - 29%
Don’t know - 30%
 
22) Which out of David Cameron and Ed Miliband would you most describe as the following?
 
David Cameron
Ed Miliband
Don’t Know
A clot
27%
32%
41%
Arrogant
56%
18%
25%
Irritating
40%
43%
17%
A loser
21%
44%
35%
Smug
58%
24%
18%
A family man
56%
20%
24%
Looks like a leader
52%
14%
34%
Understands ordinary people
15%
39%
46%
 
Leaders & Parties
 
23) Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
I like Ed Miliband and the Labour Party - 25%
I like Ed Miliband but I don’t like the Labour party - 7%
I like the Labour Party but I don’t like Ed Miliband - 20%
I don’t like either Ed Miliband or the Labour Party - 48%
 
24) Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
I like David Cameron and the Conservative Party - 25%
I like David Cameron but I don’t like the Conservative Party - 13%
I like the Conservative Party but I don’t like David Cameron - 9%
I don’t like either David Cameron or the Conservative Party - 53%
 
Popularity
25) Which of the following do you think would most help the Labour Party/Conservative Party to improve its popularity?
 
Labour Party
Conservative Party
Change its leader
39%
14%
Change its policies
38%
60%
Don’t Know
23%
26%
 
CURRENT Labour voters on increasing the popularity of the Labour Party
CHANGE LEADER 41% CHANGE POLICIES 25% DK 34%
 
CURRENT Conservative voters on increasing the popularity of the Conservative Party
CHANGE LEADER 4% CHANGE POLICIES 50% DK 46%
 
Ed Miliband
 
26) To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “The best thing Ed Miliband can do to help Labour win the election is to stand down as leader and hand over to someone else”
Strongly agree - 23%
Somewhat agree - 25%
Neither agree nor disagree - 26%
Somewhat disagree - 9%
Strongly disagree - 9%
Don’t know - 8%
 
NET Agree - 47%
NET Disagree - 19%
 
(based on unrounded figures)Current
Current LAB VOTERS
AGREE NET 36% DISAGREE NET 36% NEITHER 25% DK 3%
 
27) What do you think is Ed Miliband's biggest problem?
His policies - 15%
A lack of experience - 23%
That he knifed his brother in order to become Labour leader - 13%
That he seems weird - 20%
He is blamed for the failings of the last Labour Government - 19%
Something else - 10%
 
Current LAB VOTERS
Policy 4%
Experience 32%
Brother 11%
"Weird" 14%
Former government blame 28%
Something else 11%
 
Next Election
 
28) Which of the two main party leaders would you prefer to be Prime Minister after next year’s election?
David Cameron - 40%
Ed Miliband - 33%
Don’t know - 27%
 
29) Leaving aside what you would prefer to happen, which of the two main party leaders do you most expect to be Prime Minister after next year’s election?
David Cameron - 47%
Ed Miliband - 24%
Don’t know - 30%

Full tables are available on the following links:

Part One

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