Saturday 1 November 2014

LATEST #GE2015 FORECAST BY UKELECT

Hung Parliament - Labour Short By 34
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2015 UK General Election, created on November 1st 2014. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next UK General Election. The effect of the recent dramatic growth in SNP support is illustrated in this forecast - with the 38 seats achieved by the SNP sufficient to deprive Labour of an effective governing majority. A new experimental UK-Elect forecasting method was used for this prediction, which also shows seats gained by UKIP and the Green Party.
The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 32%, Con 32%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 40%, Lab 29%, Con 15%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 4%, Green 4%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
Party Seats Change
Labour 291 +33
Conservative 265 -39
SNP 38 +32
Liberal Democrat 23 -34
UKIP 9 +8
DUP 8 -
Sinn Fein 5 -
SDLP 3 -
Green 3 +2
Plaid Cymru 3 -
Others 2 -2
Labour Short By 34 - Hung Parliament

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for South West England Forecast for Scotland
Forecast for Wales Forecast for UK
Forecast for London Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge
Notes: The forecast base was the 2010 General Election, although gains are compared with the current situation (at November 1st). An experimental UK-Elect forecasting method was used (primarily ratio based), with allowances made for factors such as the concentrated support often enjoyed by smaller parties in some constituencies. Multiple iterations were used to achieve the correct target percentages. Because of the experimental nature of the method used the confidence level in this forecast should be regarded as lower than normal.

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.

LABOUR 291 CONSERVATIVES 265 SNP 38 LIBDEMS 23 UKIP 9 DUP 8 SINNFEIN 5 SDLP 3 PLAID CYMRU 3 GREEN 3 INDY 1 ALLIANCE1

http://www.ukelect.co.uk/maps/UKElectForecast20141101UK.jpg

If you wish to see a bigger version of the map follow the link below
http://www.ukelect.co.uk/maps/UKElectForecast20141101UK.jpg

6 comments:

  1. UKIP will get far more than 9 seats. This doesn't show UKIP winning Clacton, Rochester or Heywood for one thing, which they will do at the next GE, given the results/forecasts we already have for those places. UKIP will get 50+ seats at the very least. I cannot for the life of me see the Lib Dems still keeping 23 seats given that they lost 10/11 of their MEPs in the last EU elections.

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    Replies
    1. You are an idiot. The way you are talking makes me assume you are a UKIP fan. Your naivety to politics is probably testament to that assumption.

      Delete
  2. I agree with the latter regarding the lib dems but 50+ for ukip really I think not!

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  3. The map is somewhat misleading - it appears to show Conservatives and SNP as the major parties - in fact they tend to get elected in geographically large constituencies. The BBC had a map at the last election where each constituency was shown as a hexagon - the result was still recognizably the UK, but it gave a much better overall picture (eg, London is *much* larger.

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  4. No, you misheard the man in the pub he said they might win 15, not 50. 50+?! Out of your tree.

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  5. If I said the greens were to win 10 seats is that classed as political naivety?

    ReplyDelete

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