Thursday, 8 August 2013


Having been asked the question I thought I would put it thru the electoral calculus as though it was a national vote share. I think it just proves that the Electoral Calculus needs to be refined. Even the most optimistic UKIP supporter couldn't believe some of the gains. But in some ways it does show how difficult it is for the minor parties even on big shares to make an impact on FPTP.

National Prediction: CON majority 28

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted ChangeMP as at 2010
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromLIB: Sir Robert Smith
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeUKIPgain fromLIB: Alan Reid
AshfieldNottinghamshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Gloria de Piero
Berwick-upon-TweedNorthumberlandCONgain fromLIB: Alan Beith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromLIB: Michael Moore
Birmingham EdgbastonBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Gisela Stuart
Birmingham Hall GreenBirminghamUKIPgain fromLAB: Roger Godsiff
Birmingham Selly OakBirminghamUKIPgain fromLAB: Stephen McCabe
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamUKIPgain fromLIB: John Hemming
Bishop AucklandDurhamUKIPgain fromLAB: Helen Goodman
Bolton WestWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Julie Hilling
Bradford EastWest YorkshireUKIPgain fromLIB: David Ward
Brecon and RadnorshirePowysCONgain fromLIB: Roger Williams
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIB: Sarah Teather
Bristol EastBristol areaUKIPgain fromLAB: Kerry McCarthy
Bristol SouthBristol areaUKIPgain fromLAB: Dawn Primarolo
BurnleyLancashireUKIPgain fromLIB: Gordon Birtwistle
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandUKIPgain fromLIB: John Thurso
CambridgeCambridgeshireUKIPgain fromLIB: Julian Huppert
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganUKIPgain fromLIB: Jenny Willott
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
CheadleEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIB: Mark Hunter
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONgain fromLIB: Martin Horwood
ChippenhamWiltshireCONgain fromLIB: Duncan Hames
Cornwall NorthCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Dan Rogerson
Derby NorthDerbyshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Chris Williamson
Devon NorthDevonCONgain fromLIB: Nick Harvey
Don ValleySouth YorkshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Caroline Flint
Doncaster CentralSouth YorkshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Rosie Winterton
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIB: Annette Brooke
Dudley NorthBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Ian Austin
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLABgain fromLIB: Jo Swinson
EastbourneEast SussexCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Lloyd
EastleighHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaUKIPgain fromLIB: Michael Crockart
ExeterDevonUKIPgain fromLAB: Ben Bradshaw
GedlingNottinghamshireCONgain fromLAB: Vernon Coaker
GordonGrampianUKIPgain fromLIB: Malcolm Bruce
Great GrimsbyHumber areaUKIPgain fromLAB: Austin Mitchell
HalifaxWest YorkshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Linda Riordan
Hampstead and KilburnCamdenCONgain fromLAB: Glenda Jackson
Heywood and MiddletonEastern ManchesterUKIPgain fromLAB: Jim Dobbin
HuddersfieldWest YorkshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Barry Sheerman
Hull NorthHumber areaUKIPgain fromLAB: Diana Johnson
Hull West and HessleHumber areaUKIPgain fromLAB: Alan Johnson
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandUKIPgain fromLIB: Danny Alexander
Leeds WestWest YorkshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Rachel Reeves
Leicester WestLeicestershireUKIPgain fromLAB: Elizabeth Kendall
Luton SouthBedfordshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Gavin Shuker
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIB: John Leech
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTeesideCONgain fromLAB: Tom Blenkinsop
Morley and OutwoodWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Ed Balls
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Paul Farrelly
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireUKIPgain fromCON: Michael Ellis
Norwich SouthNorfolkUKIPgain fromLIB: Simon Wright
Nottingham SouthNottinghamshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Lillian Greenwood
Oldham East and SaddleworthEastern ManchesterUKIPgain fromLAB: Phil Woolas
Penistone and StocksbridgeSouth YorkshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Angela Smith
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonUKIPgain fromLAB: Alison Seabeck
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonUKIPgain fromCON: Oliver Colville
Portsmouth SouthHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Mike Hancock
RedcarTeesideUKIPgain fromLIB: Ian Swales
RochdaleEastern ManchesterUKIPgain fromLAB: Simon Danczuk
Rother ValleySouth YorkshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Kevin Barron
Salford and EcclesCentral ManchesterUKIPgain fromLAB: Hazel Blears
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIB: Lorely Burt
Somerton and FromeSomersetCONgain fromLIB: David Heath
Southampton ItchenHampshireCONgain fromLAB: John Denham
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Gilbert
St IvesCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Andrew George
Stoke-on-Trent CentralStaffordshireUKIPgain fromLAB: Tristram Hunt
Sutton and CheamSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Paul Burstow
Swansea WestWest GlamorganUKIPgain fromLAB: Geraint Davies
Taunton DeaneSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Jeremy Browne
TelfordShropshireCONgain fromLAB: David Wright
TorbayDevonCONgain fromLIB: Adrian Sanders
WakefieldWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Mary Creagh
Walsall NorthBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: David Winnick
WellsSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Tessa Munt
Wirral SouthMerseysideCONgain fromLAB: Alison McGovern

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