Friday, 29 August 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

 This report was generated on 28 August 2014 at 09:25. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 306 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
    • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
    • Liberal Democrats. Fading slightly. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 239 287 339 -19
Labour 258 306 352 48
Liberal Democrats 12 25 40 -32
SNP 5 8 12 2
Plaid Cymru 2 3 5 0
Greens 0 1 1 0
UKIP 0 1 2 1
Other 1 1 1 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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