Sunday, 26 April 2015

2015 UK General Election Forecast from Elections ETC

Forecast main 150424
With less than two weeks to go, Labour and the Tories are still tied in our polling average, but they’ve both dropped a point since Tuesday, to 33% each.
The result is that the Tories are down two seats in our central forecast – it now has them winning 286 to Labour’s 263. The beneficiaries are the Lib Dems, up two seats to 26.
The chances of a hung parliament are therefore up again, to 92%, as the likelihood of a Tory majority has fallen to 7%.

Date of forecast: 24 April 2015
Days till the election: 13
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 33%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 14%
Others: 12%
Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34% (30% – 38%)
Lab: 32% (28% – 36%)
LD: 10% (6% – 14%)
UKIP: 13% (9% – 17%)
Others: 11% (10% – 13%)
Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 47% (43% – 51%)
Labour: 28% (24% – 32%)
Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 286 (245 – 328)
Lab: 263 (222 – 301)
LD: 26 (17 – 34)
SNP: 51 (42 – 57)
PC: 3 (2 – 3)
UKIP: 4
Grn: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities.)
Central forecast: Con short of a majority by 37
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con most votes: 71%
Lab most votes: 29%
Con most seats: 67%
Lab most seats: 33%
Hung Parliament: 92%
… with Con largest: 60%
… with Lab largest: 32%
Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
(See here for explanations and assumptions)
Con majority: 7%
Con+DUP: 6%
Con+LD: 17%
Con+LD+DUP: 14%
Con largest, Con+LD+DUP+UKIP or Lab+SNP+LD maj: 7%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP+LD maj: 11%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP maj: 4%
Lab largest, Lab+SNP maj: 8%
Lab+LD+DUP+SDLP+PC+Grn+Hermon: 8%
Lab+LD+DUP: 7%
Lab+LD: 8%
Lab+DUP: 1%
Lab majority: 0%
(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)
Shares trend

Shares trend b

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