Wednesday, 22 April 2015

UK General Election 2015 Prediction by Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative short 44 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30733.7%282
LAB29.7%25831.6%280
LIB23.6%5710.2%17
UKIP3.2%013.4%1
Green1.0%15.0%1
SNP1.7%63.9%48
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.8%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 07 Apr 2015 to 21 Apr 2015, sampling 21,331 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Con/Nat coalition
22%
Lab/Nat coalition
20%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
16%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Conservative majority
10%
Labour majority
9%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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