Hung Parliament - Labour Lead By 9 But Short By 47. SNP Forecast To Win 50 Of The 59 Scottish MPs.
In the latest, detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency) UK-Elect forecast Labour are predicted to form the largest party by nine seats, and the Scottish National Party is once more forecast to have the key role in deciding who will form the next UK government. Overall, the figure of 328 seats, the combined total for Labour + SNP MPs in this prediction, is enough for an overall majority if the two parties can come to an agreement.The margins,however, continue to be very narrow and there can be little doubt that British politics is going through one of its most fascinating periods ever.
See UK-Elect April 12th Detailed Forecast for full details.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 33.5%, Lab 34%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8.5%, Green 5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 46%, Lab 27%, Con 16.5%, Lib Dem 4%, UKIP 4%, Green 3%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 40% Con 25%, UKIP 14%, Plaid Cymru 11%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 4%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5% Other parties votes were not specifically set. Note that the final forecast percentages differ from the input percentages due to the methodology used (including adjusting for the number of days until the election) - e.g. the final UK target percentages used were Con 33.6%, Lab 33.8%, UKIP 12.5%, LD 9.2%, Green 4.8%.
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Sunday, 12 April 2015
UK-Elect General Election Forecast, April 12th 2015.
at 6:20 pm