Monday, 20 April 2015

Green Party areas of strength and weakness by Electoral Calculus

Let's look at the Greens to see what geographic variation their support has. Similarly the UKIP, the semi-inter quartile range approximately doubles in width from 1.7% (old range from 5.1% to 6.8%) to 3.1% (new range from 4.1% to 7.2%). This shows that the new model allows for more geographic variation than the straight STM.

The top ten Green seats for the old and new models are shown below:
Seat (old model)RegionPred Green
votes
Brighton PavilionSouth East35%
Norwich SouthEast Anglia20%
CambridgeEast Anglia13%
Lewisham DeptfordSouth London12%
Leeds WestYorkshire11%
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashire10%
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonNorth London10%
HoveSouth East10%
Brighton KemptownSouth East10%
HuddersfieldYorkshire10%
Seat (new model)RegionPred Green
votes
Brighton PavilionSouth East38%
Norwich SouthEast Anglia24%
CambridgeEast Anglia18%
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonNorth London16%
Lewisham DeptfordSouth London16%
Oxford EastWest16%
Bristol WestWest15%
Hackney South and ShoreditchNorth London15%
Bristol SouthWest15%
Bristol EastWest14%


The strongest Green seats are now more strong than previous estimates, with Green support generally about 5% higher. The strong seats are more concentrated in the south of England than before. We can see the regional breakdown in the table below.
RegionOld
Model
New
Model
West6.5%9.0%
South West6.1%7.8%
South London6.9%7.6%
North London6.6%7.5%
South East7.1%7.2%
East Anglia7.2%7.1%
Yorkshire6.7%7.1%
South6.0%6.6%
Greater Manchester6.3%6.1%
Essex6.1%5.8%
Humberside6.3%5.6%
Lancashire5.5%5.5%
East Midlands6.0%5.2%
North6.1%5.0%
Severn6.0%4.8%
West Midlands5.7%4.0%
East Scotland3.2%3.4%
Wales5.3%3.4%
West Scotland2.7%2.8%

Strong regions for the Greens are in the West/South West, London and the South East. Weaker regions for the Greens are Scotland, Wales and the north of England.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_shapedstm.html SOURCE

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