Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Latest #GE2015 Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Both CON and LAB short 46 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30733.7%280
LAB29.7%25831.8%280
LIB23.6%5710.1%18
UKIP3.2%013.2%1
Green1.0%15.3%1
SNP1.7%64.1%49
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.2%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Apr 2015 to 27 Apr 2015, sampling 21,360 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Nat choice of Con/Lab
22%
Con/Nat coalition
21%
Lab/Nat coalition
19%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Conservative majority
9%
Labour majority
8%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

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