Sunday, 12 April 2015

Latest UK General Election Prediction by Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Labour short 41 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30733.2%276
LAB29.7%25832.0%285
LIB23.6%5710.0%17
UKIP3.2%013.9%2
Green1.0%15.2%1
SNP1.7%63.8%48
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.2%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 11 Apr 2015, sampling 21,180 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
22%
Conservative majority
18%
Lab/Nat coalition
14%
Con/Nat coalition
14%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
12%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
9%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
9%
No overall control
2%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

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