Sunday, 19 April 2015

Latest UK General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative short 44 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.0%307 34.0%282
LAB 29.7%258 31.7%280
LIB 23.6%57 10.2%17
UKIP 3.2%0 13.1%1
Green 1.0%1 5.1%1
SNP 1.7%6 3.8%48
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%3
Minor 3.4%0 1.7%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 07 Apr 2015 to 18 Apr 2015, sampling 21,344 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Con/Nat coalition
23%
Lab/Nat coalition
19%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
15%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Conservative majority
11%
Labour majority
9%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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