Tuesday, 14 April 2015

Latest UK General Election Prediction by Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Labour short 44 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.0%307 33.6%280
LAB 29.7%258 31.9%282
LIB 23.6%57 10.0%17
UKIP 3.2%0 13.3%1
Green 1.0%1 5.3%1
SNP 1.7%6 3.8%48
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%3
Minor 3.4%0 1.4%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 13 Apr 2015, sampling 21,779 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
21%
Labour majority
21%
Con/Nat coalition
14%
Lab/Nat coalition
13%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
9%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
9%
No overall control
2%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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