Sunday, 26 April 2015

Latest UK Gemeral Election Prediction By Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Labour short 42 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.0%307 33.2%277
LAB 29.7%258 31.7%284
LIB 23.6%57 10.2%18
UKIP 3.2%0 13.3%2
Green 1.0%1 5.4%1
SNP 1.7%6 4.0%47
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%3
Minor 3.4%0 1.6%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Apr 2015 to 25 Apr 2015, sampling 21,495 people. 

Electoral Calculus continues to update the headline prediction live in real time 
as new opinion polls are published. 

The election outlook continues to be very close with Labour and the Conservatives 
vying for the lead in the polls. This week Labour just regained its lead over the 
Tories in both polls and seats. The betting markets still see the Conservatives 
ahead, but the average of polls and markets puts Labour head by a nose. 

So the central case for the election outcome is still an alliance between Labour 
and the SNP and/or Plaid Cymru. 

The averages: Con 33 (-1), Lab 32 (nc), Lib 10 (nc), UKIP 13 (nc), Grn 5 (nc). 

The new national prediction is that Labour will be 42 seats short of a 
majority, winning 284 seats (+4 seats since 19 April). 

Electoral Calculus 

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