Sunday, 26 April 2015

UK Elect 2015 UK General Election Forecast

UK-Elect General Election Forecast, April 25th 2015.
Hung Parliament - Labour Lead By 2 But Short By 52. SNP Forecast To Win 55 Of The 59 Scottish MPs.
In the latest, detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency) UK-Elect forecast Labour are predicted to form the largest party by just two seats, and the Scottish National Party is once more forecast to have the key role in deciding who will form the next UK government. Overall, the figure of 328 seats, the combined total for Labour + SNP MPs in this prediction, is enough for an overall majority if the two parties can come to an agreement.
The margins,however, continue to be very narrow and there can be little doubt that British politics is going through one of its most fascinating periods ever.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 34%, Lab 33.5%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5.5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 47%, Lab 25.5%, Con 17%, Lib Dem 4.5%, UKIP 3%, Green 2.5%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 40% Con 26%, UKIP 13%, Plaid Cymru 11.5%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 4%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5% Other parties votes were not specifically set. Note that the final forecast percentages differ from the input percentages due to the methodology used (including adjusting for the number of days until the election) - e.g. the final UK target percentages used were Con 34.1%, Lab 33.4%, UKIP 13.8%, LD 8.3%, Green 5.4%.

See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
Constituencies: UK   Scotland   Scotland (by maj)   Wales   London
Percentages: Main Party Percentages In Every Constituency
Maps: UK   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing   2nd

Party Seats Change
Labour 273 +16
Conservative 271 -32
SNP 55 +49
Liberal Democrat 25 -31
UKIP 3 +1
DUP 9 +1
Sinn Fein 5 -
SDLP 3 -
Green 1 -
Plaid Cymru 3 -
Others 2 -4
Labour Short By 52 - Hung Parliament See UK-Elect Detailed Forecast for the UK-Elect detailed forecast.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Eastern England Forecast for Scotland
Forecast for Wales Forecast for UK
Forecast for London Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge and see a comparison with 2010. There are additional regional maps on the detailed forecast page. See also the more maps page.

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