UKIP areas of strength and weaknessThe new model performs a very granular geographic treatment, giving a better prediction of UKIP in each seat. This means there is also more variation in UKIP votes between seats, with the 25%-percentile of vote strength decreasing from 14% to 12%, and the 75%-percentile increasing from 18% to 20%. This means that the semi-inter quartile range (gap between the 75% strongest vote share and the 25% strongest vote share) has approximately doubled.
The top ten UKIP seats for the old and new models are shown below:
|Seat (old model)||Region||Pred UKIP|
|Boston and Skegness||Humberside||23%|
|Wentworth and Dearne||Humberside||22%|
|Cambridgeshire North West||East Anglia||22%|
|Seat (new model)||Region||Pred UKIP|
|Rochester and Strood||South East||30%|
|Boston and Skegness||Humberside||28%|
|Wentworth and Dearne||Humberside||26%|
|South Holland and The Deepings||Humberside||26%|
|Cambridgeshire North East||East Anglia||26%|
|Louth and Horncastle||Humberside||26%|
We see that the greater range of the new model means that the top 10 seats have more predicted support than the equivalent top 10 seats under the old model. This can also be seen in the following table of average UKIP predicted votes over the various regions, under both the old and new models.
Humberside, Essex and the south of England are more UKIP than an even geographic assumption implies. On the other hand, London is much less UKIP supporting, apart from London boroughs close to Essex