Monday, 20 April 2015

UKIP areas of strength and weakness by Electoral Calculus

UKIP areas of strength and weakness

The new model performs a very granular geographic treatment, giving a better prediction of UKIP in each seat. This means there is also more variation in UKIP votes between seats, with the 25%-percentile of vote strength decreasing from 14% to 12%, and the 75%-percentile increasing from 18% to 20%. This means that the semi-inter quartile range (gap between the 75% strongest vote share and the 25% strongest vote share) has approximately doubled.
The top ten UKIP seats for the old and new models are shown below:
Seat (old model)RegionPred UKIP
votes
BuckinghamEssex27%
Stoke-on-Trent CentralSevern25%
BromsgroveSevern23%
Great GrimsbyHumberside23%
Hull EastHumberside23%
MiddlesbroughNorth23%
Boston and SkegnessHumberside23%
Wentworth and DearneHumberside22%
Stoke-on-Trent NorthSevern22%
Cambridgeshire North WestEast Anglia22%
Seat (new model)RegionPred UKIP
votes
ClactonEssex41%
Rochester and StroodSouth East30%
Stoke-on-Trent CentralSevern29%
Boston and SkegnessHumberside28%
BuckinghamEssex27%
Wentworth and DearneHumberside26%
Great GrimsbyHumberside26%
South Holland and The DeepingsHumberside26%
Cambridgeshire North EastEast Anglia26%
Louth and HorncastleHumberside26%


We see that the greater range of the new model means that the top 10 seats have more predicted support than the equivalent top 10 seats under the old model. This can also be seen in the following table of average UKIP predicted votes over the various regions, under both the old and new models.
RegionOld
Model
New
Model
Humberside19%22%
Essex18%20%
South West18%20%
South East17%19%
Severn18%19%
East Anglia18%19%
North17%18%
East Midlands17%17%
South17%17%
West Midlands17%17%
Greater Manchester18%16%
Yorkshire16%16%
Lancashire16%15%
West16%15%
Wales15%15%
South London15%11%
North London14%8%
East Scotland5%5%
West Scotland4%4%

Humberside, Essex and the south of England are more UKIP than an even geographic assumption implies. On the other hand, London is much less UKIP supporting, apart from London boroughs close to Essex

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_shapedstm.html source

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