Saturday 3 August 2013

Much easier for Labour to win the next General Election.

As you can see from the table below it is a lot easier for Labour to win the next General election than what it will ever be for the Tories. Labour can gain power on 32% of the vote if the Tories slump to 25% But the Tories would need 37% of the vote even if Labour was on 25%.

At the moment the highest for Labour has been 40% vote share Tories would need parity with this at 40% themselves to stop Labour from winning. Yet if the Tories were on 40% then Labour would only need 33% to stop a Tory victory.

The Tories also need a percentage share of 37% or more for total control of parliament. Where as Labour have at least 33 scenarios for victory on 36% of the vote or less.

Is this an even system?

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/battlemap.html


Conservative



25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%

94123154177205223244265279289298315326335349362369377390401413
Labour25% 180196203209210213218216220223222217212207197192189182178174172

34830226423520618515914012311010290848076686463544738

105141164191210227244261282286297307319330340353361375386396410

26% 211217222228230238239237232233232229222219215204198192189188182

3052632352021811561381231081039386817367656355473831

122150171193208226240261274287297304313324335343357371381388402

27% 225237242255257254252248244238238240237229222217210205203199191

274234208173156141129112104978778726965625546383529

137154178193206223240260269281297303309318328337348365374387396

28% 254265269272269266261259258255247245243239234232228218213206205

23020217415614613212010295867874706560534639352921

137161174194206221237253265275290298308315322330342355369379390

29% 286285284280280280279273267264258252249251250245241232226219214

1981751631471351201059590837472655650473935272418

138161177190209219239248261273284294307313320327337349362374384
Labour30% 300297297297292290285285277272270266260257256254252244237229220

183163147134120112978884776862555246413329231918

143156177187203223236246253271279289302313318329333342355366375

31% 313316312308302298294290290285281276269262261259258254245237229

165149132126116100918579666257514743343126221918

147161171188201222234243254263275286297307319328334340349359368

32% 327325322320313309305304301298288283277272266263261259254248240

14813612911410891837568625953484337312723191514

148163171183202218228238253260269283291302315325333339344350361

33% 331334330329326323319312307302301292289280276268264265263258249

1431251211109481757263615348434132302619161513

150162174184201213223235249257269274289297311320332340343346354

34% 342338341341340333327320313311305303294291281279271267265264260

13012210797817672676155494640353124201615139

155159173186200207216234242254265276284297302316324336340345351
Labour35% 349354350349345342334329325318313306299297294285281273270268267

1181099987777372595651454140292722181413105

154166170191197205213230238249260269283293302308322327337344349

36% 360359361354352352349338334328319317308303299297288284276272269

11099937975676255524644373227221813121075

155165177186197200214221235247256266279288298306312322329342347

37% 365363361366359359355350340334331323318312307303301291286277273

1049686726865555350443836272419151111954

159166182188192202209217231242253264274284294304309313326333343

38% 368370368368369363361356351343337333327322316310305302292287278

978874686359545143403528241915111110754

158170182188193201208214225240245262270279288298304311318329334

39% 376376375373371369365364360349346339334329323316310305302292287

91796864615451464036342421171411119544

158175181187194200205213223232248259268276285291299306314319330
Labour40% 383380378375373375372370364361352344339334329324318312306302292

8470666358504841383225221815111087542

159174181188196200206212218228243253263272280285292302309317322

41% 389383381379378377375374375367359351345340336331325318312306301

77686358514844393330232117139985411

163170178185195199207213218227236252260269275281287295303311316

42% 393391388386382380379378377374367356352347341336331325320313308

6964595448463934312522171399875100

161170177186191201207213219225231243258264269276284292300306312

43% 399396393390388385382380378378376368355352347341336331324318313

6559554946393632292319151299851000

160164174182187198206212221227231237253261265271280288296301310

44% 405405398399396390386383383380379376364356353348344336329324315

605653444237333022191613998710000

156164170179186194204210220223231237244253262270277283292300303
Labour45% 412410411403401396392389385384380378373364356354348342333325322

575144433835292621191511998100000

25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%

Conservative


1 comment:

  1. I am getting a bit sick of hearing that Labour has an easy passage back to government. It is not their fault that their supporters are evenly spread across the nation
    What do you whingers want, i have a solution, the first million votes for Labour will not be counted
    SATISFIED

    ReplyDelete

Comment is open to all feel free to link to this blog.