Saturday, 4 April 2015

Seat Predictions for the UK General Election by ElectionForecast.co.uk

Our model combines data provided by YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 04 April 2015. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of 90% prediction intervals for vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives:GainsLosses
Labour:GainsLosses
Liberal Democrats:GainsLosses
SNP:GainsLosses
Plaid Cymru:GainsLosses
Greens:GainsLosses
UKIP:GainsLosses
The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
 ConLabLDSNPPCGRNUKIPOth
England2752322300111
Scotland2112440000
Wales727204000
The following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows).Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
 ConLabLDSNPPCGRNUKIPOth
2010 Con27233000010
2010 Lab02270301000
2010 LD12102780000
2010 SNP00060000
2010 PC00003000
2010 GRN00000100
2010 UKIP00000000
2010 Oth00000001

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