According to the front runners it will be: UKIP: 3 Con: 275 Lab: 272 Lib: 29 Green: 1 SNP: 41 OTH: 29
But if you take a weighted average of probabilities it will be: UKIP: 7 Con: 275 Lab: 279 Lib: 27 Green: 1 SNP: 38 OTH: 23
The first breakdown seems more likely given it is a FPTP system, but the difference between the two may suggest a range worth considering, particularly in the case of UKIP and SNP.
Taking either of the 2 above predictions, it will take a coalition of 3 (or more) parties to form a majority government - not a recipe for strong government!
Fascinating.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the front runners it will be:
UKIP: 3
Con: 275
Lab: 272
Lib: 29
Green: 1
SNP: 41
OTH: 29
But if you take a weighted average of probabilities it will be:
UKIP: 7
Con: 275
Lab: 279
Lib: 27
Green: 1
SNP: 38
OTH: 23
The first breakdown seems more likely given it is a FPTP system, but the difference between the two may suggest a range worth considering, particularly in the case of UKIP and SNP.
Taking either of the 2 above predictions, it will take a coalition of 3 (or more) parties to form a majority government - not a recipe for strong government!
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