Friday, 10 April 2015

UK General Election candidates' win-probabilities in each of the 650 parliamentary constituencies

Source from @FPP2015 


  1. Fascinating.

    According to the front runners it will be:
    UKIP: 3
    Con: 275
    Lab: 272
    Lib: 29
    Green: 1
    SNP: 41
    OTH: 29

    But if you take a weighted average of probabilities it will be:
    UKIP: 7
    Con: 275
    Lab: 279
    Lib: 27
    Green: 1
    SNP: 38
    OTH: 23

    The first breakdown seems more likely given it is a FPTP system, but the difference between the two may suggest a range worth considering, particularly in the case of UKIP and SNP.

  2. Taking either of the 2 above predictions, it will take a coalition of 3 (or more) parties to form a majority government - not a recipe for strong government!


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