Friday, 3 April 2015

Latest UK General Election 2015 forecast from electionetc.com

Forecast main 150403
Our first update since the official start of the campaign finds the Conservatives having moved ahead in the polls, by a nose. Our polling average now has them leading Labour by a point — 34%-33% — having been locked together on 33% apiece for the past month. (All the polls so far were before last night’s debate.)
This has boosted the Tories’ chances: our model now gives them a 79% chance of winning the most votes and a 79% chance of winning the most seats (both up from 74% last week). The probability of a Conservative majority is up to 20% (from 16%), while Labour’s hopes of a majority are virtually gone (our model gives them less than a 0.5% chance of one). The chances of a hung parliament are still high, at 80% (down slightly from 83%).
Our central forecast is for a hung parliament with the Conservatives clearly the largest party, with 35% of the vote and 300 seats to 32% and 258 for Labour.

Date of forecast: 3 April 2015
Days till the election: 34
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 34%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 14%
Others: 11%
Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35% (31% – 39%)
Lab: 32% (28% – 36%)
LD: 10% (6% – 14%)
UKIP: 13% (9% – 17%)
Others: 10% (9% – 12%)
Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 45% (41% – 49%)
Labour: 28% (24% – 32%)
Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 300 (257– 346)
Lab: 258 (215 – 298)
LD: 20 (11 – 30)
SNP: 47 (36 – 55)
PC: 3 (2 – 3)
UKIP: 5 (4 – 5)
Grn: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities.)
Central forecast: Con short of a majority by 23
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con most votes: 79%
Lab most votes: 21%
Con most seats: 79%
Lab most seats: 21%
Hung Parliament: 80%
… with Con largest: 59%
… with Lab largest: 21%
Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
(See here for explanations and assumptions)
Con majority: 20%
Con+DUP: 10%
Con+LD: 14%
Con+LD+DUP: 14%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP+others maj: 17%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP maj: 4%
Lab largest, Lab+SNP maj: 7%
Lab+LD+DUP+SDLP+PC+Grn+Hermon: 5%
Lab+LD+DUP: 4%
Lab+LD: 4%
Lab+DUP: 1%
Lab majority: 0%

(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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