Monday 8 December 2014


A big thank you to @AndyJSajs who collated the information.

A link to 3 forecasters who think The SNP will gain at least 30 seats. Which would need at least 18% swing according to this list. 

Polls show 19% swing LABOUR > SNP Link to data Over the past 2 years

ConstituencyWinning Party 2010Maj/lead over SNPSwing Req. %Maj/lead over SNP %Total Votes 2010SNP pos. (if not 2nd)Swing required to overtake second-placed party?Current MP (* = ret.) / new candidate

1Ochil & Perthshire SouthLab: 15,1875.1410.2850,469

Gordon Banks
2Argyll & ButeLD: 15,7296.3412.6745,2074th
Alan Reid
3GordonLD: 26,7486.9213.8348,775

Malcolm Bruce* / Christine Jardine
4FalkirkLab: 27,8437.7215.4550,777

Eric Joyce* / Karen Whitefield
5Dundee WestLab: 37,2789.8019.6037,126

Jim McGovern
6Ayrshire North & ArranLab: 49,89510.7321.4646,116

Katy Clark
7Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & StrathspeyLD: 310,36911.0122.0247,0863rd
Danny Alexander
8Aberdeen NorthLab: 58,36111.0922.1837,701

Frank Doran* / Richard Baker
9Caithness, Sutherland & Easter RossLD: 46,39111.1122.2228,7683rd
John Thurso
10LivingstonLab: 610,79111.2622.5247,907

Graeme Morrice
11Edinburgh EastLab: 79,18111.5223.0339,865

Sheila Gilmore
12Linlithgow & Falkirk EastLab: 812,55312.2024.4051,450

Michael Connarty
13StirlingLab: 911,46712.2524.5146,7913rd
Anne McGuire* / Johanna Boyd
14MidlothianLab: 1010,34913.1926.3739,242

David Hamilton
15Kilmarnock & LoudounLab: 1112,37813.2926.5946,553

Cathy Jamieson
16East Kilbride, Strathaven & LesmahagowLab: 1214,50314.2328.4750,946

Michael McCann
17East LothianLab: 1314,03614.2828.5549,1614th
Fiona O'Donnell
18Ayrshire CentralLab: 1412,58614.3328.6643,9153rd
Brian Donohoe
19Lanark & Hamilton EastLab: 1513,47814.4828.9546,554

Jim Hood
20Ayr, Carrick & CumnockLab: 1613,35614.5529.1045,8933rd
Sandra Osborne
21Edinburgh WestLD: 513,53214.5729.1346,4474thYESMichael Crockart
22Aberdeenshire West & KincardineLD: 613,18414.5929.1745,1953rdYESRobert Smith
23Fife North EastLD: 712,07815.0730.1540,0644th
Menzies Campbell* / Tim Brett
24Edinburgh South WestLab: 1713,94315.3330.6745,4624th
Alistair Darling
25Glasgow SouthLab: 1812,65815.7931.5740,094

Tom Harris
26Aberdeen SouthLab: 1914,22816.5333.0643,0344thYESAnne Begg
27Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch EastLab: 2013,75516.7133.4341,150

Gregg McClymont
28Glasgow CentralLab: 2110,55117.2634.5130,572

Anas Sarwar
29Airdrie & ShottsLab: 2212,40817.3134.6135,849

Pamela Nash
30Paisley & Renfrewshire NorthLab: 2315,28017.4834.9643,707

Jim Sheridan
31Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & TweeddaleCon: 116,63618.1336.2545,8924thYESDavid Mundell
32Glasgow EastLab: 2411,84018.4136.8132,164

Margaret Curran
33Ross, Skye & LochaberLD: 813,07218.7637.5234,8383rd
Charles Kennedy
34InverclydeLab: 2514,41619.2238.4337,512

Iain McKenzie
35Dumfries & GallowayLab: 2620,16419.3238.6552,1733rdYESRussell Brown
36Glasgow North WestLab: 2713,80319.4038.7935,5823rd
John Robertson
37Glasgow NorthLab: 2811,50619.4338.8529,6133rdYESAnn McKechin
38GlenrothesLab: 2916,44820.3140.6140,501

Lindsay Roy* / Melanie Ward
39Dunbartonshire WestLab: 3017,40820.5941.1942,266

Gemma Doyle
40Paisley & Renfrewshire SouthLab: 3116,61420.7741.5439,998

Douglas Alexander
41Motherwell & WishawLab: 3216,80621.4842.9639,123

Frank Roy
42Renfrewshire EastLab: 3322,06421.5543.1151,1814thYESJim Murphy
43Rutherglen & Hamilton WestLab: 3421,00222.3544.7046,981

Tom Greatrex
44Glasgow South WestLab: 3514,67123.0846.1631,781

Ian Davidson
45Dunbartonshire EastLD: 922,62623.5947.1947,9484thYESJo Swinson
46Edinburgh North & LeithLab: 3622,89624.1748.3547,3564thYESMark Lazarowicz
47Dunfermline & Fife WestLab: 3723,93624.4548.9048,9473rdYESThomas Docherty
48Berwickshire, Roxburgh & SelkirkLD: 1024,11624.6049.2049,0144thYESMichael Moore
49Coatbridge, Chryston & BellshillLab: 3820,71424.8849.7541,635

Tom Clarke
50Kirkcaldy & CowdenbeathLab: 3923,00925.1250.2445,802

Gordon Brown*
51Orkney & ShetlandLD: 119,94725.7151.4219,3463rd
Alistair Carmichael
52Edinburgh SouthLab: 4023,09026.3652.7243,8014thYESIan Murray
53Glasgow North EastLab: 4115,94227.1054.2129,409

Willie Bain

1 comment:

  1. A number of errors in this work I'm afraid including percentage leads, swings required and majority over SNP candidate.


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