SNP PREDICTED TO MAKE GAINS
A link to 3 forecasters who think The SNP will gain at least 30 seats. Which would need at least 18% swing according to this list.
Polls show 19% swing LABOUR > SNP Link to data Over the past 2 years
Constituency | Winning Party 2010 | Maj/lead over SNP | Swing Req. % | Maj/lead over SNP % | Total Votes 2010 | SNP pos. (if not 2nd) | Swing required to overtake second-placed party? | Current MP (* = ret.) / new candidate | |
1 | Ochil & Perthshire South | Lab: 1 | 5,187 | 5.14 | 10.28 | 50,469 | Gordon Banks | ||
2 | Argyll & Bute | LD: 1 | 5,729 | 6.34 | 12.67 | 45,207 | 4th | Alan Reid | |
3 | Gordon | LD: 2 | 6,748 | 6.92 | 13.83 | 48,775 | Malcolm Bruce* / Christine Jardine | ||
4 | Falkirk | Lab: 2 | 7,843 | 7.72 | 15.45 | 50,777 | Eric Joyce* / Karen Whitefield | ||
5 | Dundee West | Lab: 3 | 7,278 | 9.80 | 19.60 | 37,126 | Jim McGovern | ||
6 | Ayrshire North & Arran | Lab: 4 | 9,895 | 10.73 | 21.46 | 46,116 | Katy Clark | ||
7 | Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey | LD: 3 | 10,369 | 11.01 | 22.02 | 47,086 | 3rd | Danny Alexander | |
8 | Aberdeen North | Lab: 5 | 8,361 | 11.09 | 22.18 | 37,701 | Frank Doran* / Richard Baker | ||
9 | Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross | LD: 4 | 6,391 | 11.11 | 22.22 | 28,768 | 3rd | John Thurso | |
10 | Livingston | Lab: 6 | 10,791 | 11.26 | 22.52 | 47,907 | Graeme Morrice | ||
11 | Edinburgh East | Lab: 7 | 9,181 | 11.52 | 23.03 | 39,865 | Sheila Gilmore | ||
12 | Linlithgow & Falkirk East | Lab: 8 | 12,553 | 12.20 | 24.40 | 51,450 | Michael Connarty | ||
13 | Stirling | Lab: 9 | 11,467 | 12.25 | 24.51 | 46,791 | 3rd | Anne McGuire* / Johanna Boyd | |
14 | Midlothian | Lab: 10 | 10,349 | 13.19 | 26.37 | 39,242 | David Hamilton | ||
15 | Kilmarnock & Loudoun | Lab: 11 | 12,378 | 13.29 | 26.59 | 46,553 | Cathy Jamieson | ||
16 | East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow | Lab: 12 | 14,503 | 14.23 | 28.47 | 50,946 | Michael McCann | ||
17 | East Lothian | Lab: 13 | 14,036 | 14.28 | 28.55 | 49,161 | 4th | Fiona O'Donnell | |
18 | Ayrshire Central | Lab: 14 | 12,586 | 14.33 | 28.66 | 43,915 | 3rd | Brian Donohoe | |
19 | Lanark & Hamilton East | Lab: 15 | 13,478 | 14.48 | 28.95 | 46,554 | Jim Hood | ||
20 | Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock | Lab: 16 | 13,356 | 14.55 | 29.10 | 45,893 | 3rd | Sandra Osborne | |
21 | Edinburgh West | LD: 5 | 13,532 | 14.57 | 29.13 | 46,447 | 4th | YES | Michael Crockart |
22 | Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine | LD: 6 | 13,184 | 14.59 | 29.17 | 45,195 | 3rd | YES | Robert Smith |
23 | Fife North East | LD: 7 | 12,078 | 15.07 | 30.15 | 40,064 | 4th | Menzies Campbell* / Tim Brett | |
24 | Edinburgh South West | Lab: 17 | 13,943 | 15.33 | 30.67 | 45,462 | 4th | Alistair Darling | |
25 | Glasgow South | Lab: 18 | 12,658 | 15.79 | 31.57 | 40,094 | Tom Harris | ||
26 | Aberdeen South | Lab: 19 | 14,228 | 16.53 | 33.06 | 43,034 | 4th | YES | Anne Begg |
27 | Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East | Lab: 20 | 13,755 | 16.71 | 33.43 | 41,150 | Gregg McClymont | ||
28 | Glasgow Central | Lab: 21 | 10,551 | 17.26 | 34.51 | 30,572 | Anas Sarwar | ||
29 | Airdrie & Shotts | Lab: 22 | 12,408 | 17.31 | 34.61 | 35,849 | Pamela Nash | ||
30 | Paisley & Renfrewshire North | Lab: 23 | 15,280 | 17.48 | 34.96 | 43,707 | Jim Sheridan | ||
31 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale | Con: 1 | 16,636 | 18.13 | 36.25 | 45,892 | 4th | YES | David Mundell |
32 | Glasgow East | Lab: 24 | 11,840 | 18.41 | 36.81 | 32,164 | Margaret Curran | ||
33 | Ross, Skye & Lochaber | LD: 8 | 13,072 | 18.76 | 37.52 | 34,838 | 3rd | Charles Kennedy | |
34 | Inverclyde | Lab: 25 | 14,416 | 19.22 | 38.43 | 37,512 | Iain McKenzie | ||
35 | Dumfries & Galloway | Lab: 26 | 20,164 | 19.32 | 38.65 | 52,173 | 3rd | YES | Russell Brown |
36 | Glasgow North West | Lab: 27 | 13,803 | 19.40 | 38.79 | 35,582 | 3rd | John Robertson | |
37 | Glasgow North | Lab: 28 | 11,506 | 19.43 | 38.85 | 29,613 | 3rd | YES | Ann McKechin |
38 | Glenrothes | Lab: 29 | 16,448 | 20.31 | 40.61 | 40,501 | Lindsay Roy* / Melanie Ward | ||
39 | Dunbartonshire West | Lab: 30 | 17,408 | 20.59 | 41.19 | 42,266 | Gemma Doyle | ||
40 | Paisley & Renfrewshire South | Lab: 31 | 16,614 | 20.77 | 41.54 | 39,998 | Douglas Alexander | ||
41 | Motherwell & Wishaw | Lab: 32 | 16,806 | 21.48 | 42.96 | 39,123 | Frank Roy | ||
42 | Renfrewshire East | Lab: 33 | 22,064 | 21.55 | 43.11 | 51,181 | 4th | YES | Jim Murphy |
43 | Rutherglen & Hamilton West | Lab: 34 | 21,002 | 22.35 | 44.70 | 46,981 | Tom Greatrex | ||
44 | Glasgow South West | Lab: 35 | 14,671 | 23.08 | 46.16 | 31,781 | Ian Davidson | ||
45 | Dunbartonshire East | LD: 9 | 22,626 | 23.59 | 47.19 | 47,948 | 4th | YES | Jo Swinson |
46 | Edinburgh North & Leith | Lab: 36 | 22,896 | 24.17 | 48.35 | 47,356 | 4th | YES | Mark Lazarowicz |
47 | Dunfermline & Fife West | Lab: 37 | 23,936 | 24.45 | 48.90 | 48,947 | 3rd | YES | Thomas Docherty |
48 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk | LD: 10 | 24,116 | 24.60 | 49.20 | 49,014 | 4th | YES | Michael Moore |
49 | Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill | Lab: 38 | 20,714 | 24.88 | 49.75 | 41,635 | Tom Clarke | ||
50 | Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath | Lab: 39 | 23,009 | 25.12 | 50.24 | 45,802 | Gordon Brown* | ||
51 | Orkney & Shetland | LD: 11 | 9,947 | 25.71 | 51.42 | 19,346 | 3rd | Alistair Carmichael | |
52 | Edinburgh South | Lab: 40 | 23,090 | 26.36 | 52.72 | 43,801 | 4th | YES | Ian Murray |
53 | Glasgow North East | Lab: 41 | 15,942 | 27.10 | 54.21 | 29,409 | Willie Bain | ||
A number of errors in this work I'm afraid including percentage leads, swings required and majority over SNP candidate.
ReplyDelete