43 WESTMINSTER SEATS FOR UKIP?

Having been asked the question I thought I would put it thru the electoral calculus as though it was a national vote share. I think it just proves that the Electoral Calculus needs to be refined. Even the most optimistic UKIP supporter couldn't believe some of the gains. But in some ways it does show how difficult it is for the minor parties even on big shares to make an impact on FPTP.

@UKELECTIONS2015 @jlj21964 hat does that look like is terms of seats won?
— Lee Slaughter (@SlaughterLee) August 8, 2013

National Prediction: CON majority 28

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	34.50%	34	2	339
LAB	29.66%	258	24.10%	3	41	220
LIB	23.56%	57	9.50%	0	37	20
UKIP	3.17%	0	28.50%	43	0	43
NAT	2.26%	9	2.26%	0	0	9
MIN	0.89%	19	0.89%	0	0	19
OTH	3.48%	0	0.25%	0	0	0

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List of predicted seat changes

Seat	County/Area	Predicted Change			MP as at 2010
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Grampian	CON	gain from	LIB	: Sir Robert Smith
Argyll and Bute	Argyll and Bute	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Alan Reid
Ashfield	Nottinghamshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Gloria de Piero
Berwick-upon-Tweed	Northumberland	CON	gain from	LIB	: Alan Beith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Borders	CON	gain from	LIB	: Michael Moore
Birmingham Edgbaston	Birmingham	CON	gain from	LAB	: Gisela Stuart
Birmingham Hall Green	Birmingham	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Roger Godsiff
Birmingham Selly Oak	Birmingham	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Stephen McCabe
Birmingham Yardley	Birmingham	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: John Hemming
Bishop Auckland	Durham	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Helen Goodman
Bolton West	Western Manchester	CON	gain from	LAB	: Julie Hilling
Bradford East	West Yorkshire	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: David Ward
Brecon and Radnorshire	Powys	CON	gain from	LIB	: Roger Williams
Brent Central	Brent	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Sarah Teather
Bristol East	Bristol area	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Kerry McCarthy
Bristol South	Bristol area	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Dawn Primarolo
Burnley	Lancashire	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Gordon Birtwistle
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	Highland	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: John Thurso
Cambridge	Cambridgeshire	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Julian Huppert
Cardiff Central	South Glamorgan	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Jenny Willott
Carshalton and Wallington	Sutton	CON	gain from	LIB	: Tom Brake
Cheadle	Eastern Manchester	CON	gain from	LIB	: Mark Hunter
Cheltenham	Gloucestershire	CON	gain from	LIB	: Martin Horwood
Chippenham	Wiltshire	CON	gain from	LIB	: Duncan Hames
Cornwall North	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	: Dan Rogerson
Derby North	Derbyshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Chris Williamson
Devon North	Devon	CON	gain from	LIB	: Nick Harvey
Don Valley	South Yorkshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Caroline Flint
Doncaster Central	South Yorkshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Rosie Winterton
Dorset Mid and Poole North	Dorset	CON	gain from	LIB	: Annette Brooke
Dudley North	Black Country	CON	gain from	LAB	: Ian Austin
Dunbartonshire East	Glasgow area	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Jo Swinson
Eastbourne	East Sussex	CON	gain from	LIB	: Stephen Lloyd
Eastleigh	Hampshire	CON	gain from	LIB	: Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh West	Edinburgh area	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Michael Crockart
Exeter	Devon	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Ben Bradshaw
Gedling	Nottinghamshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Vernon Coaker
Gordon	Grampian	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Malcolm Bruce
Great Grimsby	Humber area	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Austin Mitchell
Halifax	West Yorkshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Linda Riordan
Hampstead and Kilburn	Camden	CON	gain from	LAB	: Glenda Jackson
Heywood and Middleton	Eastern Manchester	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Jim Dobbin
Huddersfield	West Yorkshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Barry Sheerman
Hull North	Humber area	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Diana Johnson
Hull West and Hessle	Humber area	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Alan Johnson
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Highland	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Danny Alexander
Leeds West	West Yorkshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Rachel Reeves
Leicester West	Leicestershire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Elizabeth Kendall
Luton South	Bedfordshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Gavin Shuker
Manchester Withington	Central Manchester	LAB	gain from	LIB	: John Leech
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Teeside	CON	gain from	LAB	: Tom Blenkinsop
Morley and Outwood	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Ed Balls
Newcastle-under-Lyme	Staffordshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Paul Farrelly
Northampton North	Northamptonshire	UKIP	gain from	CON	: Michael Ellis
Norwich South	Norfolk	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Simon Wright
Nottingham South	Nottinghamshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Lillian Greenwood
Oldham East and Saddleworth	Eastern Manchester	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Phil Woolas
Penistone and Stocksbridge	South Yorkshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Angela Smith
Plymouth Moor View	Devon	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Alison Seabeck
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Devon	UKIP	gain from	CON	: Oliver Colville
Portsmouth South	Hampshire	CON	gain from	LIB	: Mike Hancock
Redcar	Teeside	UKIP	gain from	LIB	: Ian Swales
Rochdale	Eastern Manchester	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Simon Danczuk
Rother Valley	South Yorkshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Kevin Barron
Salford and Eccles	Central Manchester	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Hazel Blears
Solihull	Coventry and Solihull	CON	gain from	LIB	: Lorely Burt
Somerton and Frome	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	: David Heath
Southampton Itchen	Hampshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: John Denham
St Austell and Newquay	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	: Stephen Gilbert
St Ives	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	: Andrew George
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Staffordshire	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Tristram Hunt
Sutton and Cheam	Sutton	CON	gain from	LIB	: Paul Burstow
Swansea West	West Glamorgan	UKIP	gain from	LAB	: Geraint Davies
Taunton Deane	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	: Jeremy Browne
Telford	Shropshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: David Wright
Torbay	Devon	CON	gain from	LIB	: Adrian Sanders
Wakefield	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Mary Creagh
Walsall North	Black Country	CON	gain from	LAB	: David Winnick
Wells	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	: Tessa Munt
Wirral South	Merseyside	CON	gain from	LAB	: Alison McGovern