STOCKTON SOUTH NOTIONAL

@UKELECTIONS2015 What does Stockton South look like then? ;-)
— Louise Baldock (@LouiseBaldock) August 14, 2013

NOTIONAL RESULT

LABOUR 20,265 - 41.1% up 2.8%
CONSERVATIVES 16,567 - 33.6% down 5.3%
UKIP 6,474 - 13.1% up 10.2%
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 2,821 - 5.7% down 9.4%
OTHERS 2,800 - 5.7%
GREEN 421 - 0.9%

49,348

Formula used THE READING EAST EFFECT

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Conservatives start with 19,577 they keep 14,878 voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 777 & 912 which means a new vote total of 16,567.

Labour start with 19,245 they keep 16,550 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 2,736 & 979 which means a new vote total of 20,265.

Liberal Democrats start with 7,600 they keep 2,432 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 196 & 193 which means a new vote total of 2,821.

UKIP start with 1,471 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 2,936, 1,155 & 912 votes respectively giving a new total of 6,474.

GREENS start with 0 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 228 & 193 respectively giving a new votes total of 421


According to Electoral Calculus

Stockton South
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: James Wharton  (CON)
Electorate: 74,552
Turnout: 67.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,577	38.93%	31.56%
LAB	19,245	38.27%	47.44%
LIB	7,600	15.11%	3.42%
OTH	2,391	4.75%	5.16%
UKIP	1,471	2.93%	12.41%
CON Majority	332	0.66%	Pred Maj 15.88%