Much easier for Labour to win the next General Election (PART 2)

I wrote a blog post over the weekend Much easier for Labour to win the next General Election. It showed how Labour have a 5% head start on the Tories and how similar figures for each party means very differing results. I had a stock reply that Labours vote is more even than the Tories. So in reply to that here is the evidence that actually Tories end up winning the bigger seats so have plenty of votes to spare and Labour win a lot of the smaller seats.

Below is the list of the smallest 100 parliamentary seats in the UK

and they are split as such.

Labour 63
Conservative 18
Lib Dem 8
Plaid 3
SNP 1
Northern Ireland 7

So if you take out the seats from Northern Ireland, Labour hold 70% of the smallest parliamentary seats in the UK. So I would not say they have the vote spread out evenly they simply have it concentrated in the best and most likely scenarios for a win for themselves.

Of the top 100 largest seats 61 are Conservative.

Rank Constituency Region Party 1 December 2010 mid-2009
551 Blackpool South North West LAB 64,081 80,265
552 Kenilworth and Southam West Midlands CON 63,772 82,709
553 South Shields North East LAB 63,765 84,621
554 Northampton South East Midlands CON 63,748 91,933
555 Derbyshire Dales East Midlands CON 63,732 77,592
556 Copeland North West LAB 63,696 79,859
557 Scunthorpe Yorkshire and The Humber LAB 63,489 84,605
558 Bradford West Yorkshire and The Humber LAB 63,425 111,320
559 Cardiff West Wales LAB 63,360 88,388
560 North East Fife Scotland LD 63,349 83,118
561 Paisley and Renfrewshire South Scotland LAB 63,268 84,019
562 Blyth Valley North East LAB 63,173 80,986
563 Rotherham Yorkshire and The Humber LAB 63,131 89,047
564 Dundee West Scotland LAB 63,065 86,703
565 Eltham London LAB 63,059 85,531
566 Warley West Midlands LAB 63,024 86,869
567 Leyton and Wanstead London LAB 63,021 91,634
568 West Bromwich East West Midlands LAB 63,008 82,745
569 Chelsea and Fulham London CON 62,958 103,649
570 Airdrie and Shotts Scotland LAB 62,789 84,527
571 Kensington London CON 62,784 124,280
572 Stockport North West LAB 62,764 84,729
573 Liverpool, West Derby North West LAB 62,709 90,218
574 Newport West Wales LAB 62,465 83,490
575 Staffordshire Moorlands West Midlands CON 62,457 76,114
576 Birkenhead North West LAB 62,432 84,376
577 Hazel Grove North West LD 62,422 79,487
578 Wansbeck North East LAB 62,395 81,303
579 Glasgow South West Scotland LAB 62,378 84,214
580 West Tyrone Northern Ireland Sinn Fein 62,258 ..
581 Cardiff Central Wales LD 62,218 82,706
582 Putney London CON 62,153 91,442
583 Swansea West Wales LAB 62,152 75,346
584 Gower Wales LAB 62,148 77,302
585 Northampton North East Midlands CON 62,095 86,766
586 Midlothian Scotland LAB 61,986 80,810
587 Liverpool, Walton North West LAB 61,974 90,021
588 Great Grimsby Yorkshire and The Humber LAB 61,929 86,924
589 Stoke-on-Trent Central West Midlands LAB 61,774 78,710
590 Wolverhampton South East West Midlands LAB 61,751 84,897
591 Dudley North West Midlands LAB 61,714 79,713
592 Liverpool, Wavertree North West LAB 61,679 88,747
593 Torfaen Wales LAB 61,644 80,908
594 Caerphilly Wales LAB 61,633 84,388
595 North Down Northern Ireland IND 61,615 ..
596 Strangford Northern Ireland DUP 61,566 ..
597 Alyn and Deeside Wales LAB 61,485 79,897
598 DudleySouth WestMidlands CON 61 308 78 212 Dudley South West Midlands 61,308 78,212
599 East Antrim Northern Ireland DUP 61,253 ..
600 Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Yorkshire and The Humber LAB 61,232 86,089
601 Inverclyde Scotland LAB 61,038 80,210
602 Preston North West LAB 61,025 89,237
603 Newcastle upon Tyne Central North East LAB 60,795 97,199
604 Belfast South Northern Ireland SDLP 60,726 ..
605 Edinburgh East Scotland LAB 60,594 94,792
606 Swansea East Wales LAB 60,554 78,659
607 Belfast West Northern Ireland Sinn Fein 60,520 ..
608 Hexham North East CON 60,499 74,870
609 Wolverhampton North East West Midlands LAB 60,354 84,368
610 Belfast East Northern Ireland Alliance 60,050 ..
611 Pontypridd Wales LAB 60,016 81,238
612 Wolverhampton South West West Midlands CON 59,846 82,055
613 Aldridge-Brownhills West Midlands CON59,50674,899
614 Nottingham East East Midlands LAB 59,489 96,053
615 Workington North West LAB 59,361 76,459
616 Edinburgh South Scotland LAB 59,285 89,469
617 Bridgend Wales LAB 58,936 76,090
618 Carmarthen West and South PembrokeshireWales CON 58,504 75,654
619 Llanelli Wales LAB 58,447 78,899
620 Clwyd West Wales CON 58,215 71,735
621 Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales CON 57,966 72,963
622 Neath Wales LAB 57,618 72,250
623 Vale of Clwyd Wales LAB 56,264 73,937
624 Wirral South North West LAB 56,238 69,467
625 Ceredigion Wales LD 56,006 76,400
626 Berwick-upon-Tweed North East LD 55,785 73,917
627 Ogmore Wales LAB 55,699 73,328
628 Wirral West North West CON 55,077 67,716
629 Newport East Wales LAB 54,826 74,113
630 Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Wales LAB 54,757 71,517
631 Glasgow North Scotland LAB 54,620 70,067
632 Islwyn Wales LAB 54,611 72,489
633 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales Plaid Cymru 54,285 70,676
634 Clwyd South Wales LAB 54,243 70,950
635 Delyn Wales LAB 53,906 70,026
636 Brecon and Radnorshire Wales LD 53,633 68,364
637 Blaenau Gwent Wales LAB 53,517 68,630
Rank Constituency Region Party 1 December 2010 mid-2009
638 Rhondda Wales LAB 52,765 69,503
639 Cynon Valley Wales LAB 52,216 68,441
640 Ross, Skye and Lochaber Scotland LD 52,064 65,641
641 Wrexham Wales LAB 51,669 70,048
642 Aberavon Wales LAB 51,034 65,024
643 Ynys Môn Wales LAB 49,524 68,768
644 Montgomeryshire Wales CON 48,563 63,523
645 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossScotland LD 47,572 59,376
646 Aberconwy Wales CON 44,962 54,622
647 Dwyfor Meirionnydd Wales Plaid Cymru 44,796 60,654
648 Arfon Wales Plaid Cymru 40,707 58,113
649 Orkney and Shetland Scotland LD 33,755 42,170
650 Na h-Eileanan an Iar Scotland SNP 21,837 26,180

SOURCE