PORTSMOUTH SOUTH NOTIONAL ELECTION RESULT

As per my previous posts I am using a formula just to see how it effects 2010 general election results and how they might look now. As Portsmouth South is always a likely contender and has a Liberal Democrat MP I thought I would see how much it would be effected.

The notional result would be.

Conservatives 12,922 - 32.4% down 0.9%
Labour 12,348 - 31% up 17.3%
Liberal Democrats 6,247 - 15.7% down 30.2%
UKIP 5,542 - 13.9% up 11.8%
Green Party 1,339 - 3.7% up 2%
others 1,390

39,788

Formula used THE READING EAST EFFECT

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Conservatives start with 13,721 they keep 10,427  voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 225 & 2,270 which means a new vote total of 12,922.

Labour start with 5,640 they keep 4,850 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 6,812 & 686 which means a new vote total of 12,348.

Liberal Democrats start with 18,921 they keep 6,054 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 137 & 56 which means a new vote total of 6,247.

UKIP start with 876 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 2,058, 338 & 2,270 votes respectively giving a new total of 5,542.

GREENS start with 716 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 567 & 56 respectively giving a new votes total of 1339.

Candidates

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
Mike Hancock	Liberal Democrat	18,921	45.9	+4.2
Flick Drummond	Conservative	13,721	33.3	-0.4
John Ferrett	Labour	5,640	13.7	-8.7
Christopher Martin	UK Independence Party	876	2.1	-0.2
Geoff Crompton	British National Party	873	2.1	+2.1
Tim Dawes	Green	716	1.7	+1.7
Ian DuCane	English Democrats	400	1.0	+1.0
Les Cummings	Justice & Anti-Corruption Party [The]	117	0.3	+0.3
Majority		5,200	12.6
Turnout		41,264	58.7	+1.3