TORRIDGE & WEST DEVON NOTIONAL RESULT

I have done three notional results so far, and this is the last for today just to see how it effects an area where there were a high UKIP vote.

NOTIONAL RESULT IS.

CONSERVATIVES 21,963 - 40.8% down 4.9%
LABOUR 11,787 - 21.9% up 16.6%
UKIP 9,653 - 17.9% up 12.4%
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 7,408 - 13.8% down 26.5%
GREEN PARTY 1,748 - 3.2% up 1.3%
OTHERS 1,266

TOTAL 53,825

Formula used THE READING EAST EFFECT

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Conservatives start with 25,230 they keep 19,174 voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 116 & 2,673 which means a new vote total of 21,963.

Labour start with 2,917 they keep 2,508 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 8,018 & 1,261 which means a new vote total of 11,787.

Liberal Democrats start with 22,273 they keep 7,127 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 252 & 29 which means a new vote total of 7,408.

UKIP start with 3,021 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 3,785, 175 & 2,672 votes respectively giving a new total of 9,653.

GREENS start with 1,050 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 668 & 29 respectively giving a new votes total of  1,748.

Candidates

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
Geoffrey Cox	Conservative	25,230	45.7	+3.4
Adam Symons	Liberal Democrat	22,273	40.3	+3.4
Robin Julian	UK Independence Party	3,021	5.5	-0.9
Darren Jones	Labour	2,917	5.3	-5.3
Cathrine Simmons	Green	1,050	1.9	-2.0
Nick Baker	British National Party	766	1.4	+1.4
Majority		2,957	5.4
Turnout		55,257	71.4	+0.2